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Future rice production in Madagascar Where and how much ?

Future rice production in Madagascar Where and how much ?. Robert Hijmans & Alice Laborte International Rice Research Institute. Background. Madagascar’s population is largely rural, very poor & dependent on agriculture Rice is the main crop and staple food & cassava is also important.

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Future rice production in Madagascar Where and how much ?

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  1. Future rice productionin MadagascarWhere and how much ? Robert Hijmans & Alice Laborte International Rice Research Institute

  2. Background • Madagascar’s population is largely rural, very poor & dependent on agriculture • Rice is the main crop and staple food & cassava is also important. • Madagascar is a net rice importer. Government aims to double rice production between 2005 and 2012 • Production (kg) = Area (ha) * Yield (kg / ha) • Area expansion (habitat loss?) or intensification (pollution?)

  3. 2 modeling approaches • Regression: Where would area expansion take place? • Simulation: Climate change effect on yield

  4. Where is rice grown ? IDFN1 BD50

  5. Regression model Rice area as function of: • biophysical factors • socioeconomic factors • biophysical + socioeconomic factors • bio. + soc. factors (2 regions: W, CE)

  6. Biophysical variables

  7. Socio-economic variables

  8. Model a b c **Significant at 0%, * 5%

  9. Model d West Center-East **Significant at 0%, *1%

  10. Biophysical variables Socio-economic variables

  11. Biophysical & socioeconmic variables Two regions

  12. Socio-economic variables Biophysical variables

  13. Biophysical & socioeconmic variables Two regions

  14. Forest loss model

  15. Business as usual: Forest area reduced by 25% in 2032 50% by 2077.

  16. Rice growth simulation model

  17. Baseline Climate: 1960-1990 (CO2 = 340 ppm) Cultivar: IR72 Model: Oryza Pot. yld. (t / ha)

  18. 2.5 - 5 5 - 7.5 7.5 - 10 > 10 < 2.5 April January October July

  19. 2.5 - 5 5 - 7.5 7.5 - 10 > 10 < 2.5 November planting of IR64, irrigated 2080 A2a, Hadcm3 Current conditions

  20. IR64, rainfed

  21. Implications? Part of the climate change effects on yield potential can be easily dealt with (length of growing season) Current yields are very low; Need for intensification; opportunities are not much affected. Water supply, double cropping? Resilience to extreme events (flooding, drought) More rice in the central highlands? Or diversification to high value crops?

  22. Intensification: • less pressure on the land; • more pollution, where would that be a threat? • Extensification: • Not necessarily in the forest areas • Rehabilitation of irrigation schemes • Need for alternative livelihoods

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