Implementing the nexus in the MENA region

1. Implementing the nexus in the MENA region Holger Hoff, Nadim Farajalla, Kerstin Fritzsche, Phil Graham, Annabelle Houdret Stockholm Environment Institute Potsdam Institute forClimate Impact Research American University of Beirut Adelphi German Development Institute SwedishMeteorologicaland Hydrological Institute Climate Adaptation Mitigation Workshop WWW 4 September 2013

2. Outline: • Climate – yetanotherpressures in the MENA region • Nexus principlesandopportunities • MENA – a casefor a nexusapproach • Initial examplesfromLebanon & Jordan • A proof-of-conceptnexusstudy in the MENA region

3. Climate – onemorepressure in the MENA region MENA: most water (and land) scarce, subject to severe resource degradation, e.g. desertification, groundwater depletion resource productivities remain low GHG emissions are rising rapidly climate projections largely agree on decrease in total precipitation, on top of increasing temperatures and more/stronger extremes with projected major impacts on water resources, agriculture and ecosystems

4. Climate – onemorepressure in the MENA region } RCP 8.5 CORDEX state-of-the-art regional climate scenarios } RCP 4.5 LAS Regional Initiative for the Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region (RICCAR) producing some 15-20 climate projections

5. Climate – onemorepressure in the MENA region 2041-2060 2081-2100 very useful product: ensemble means across a large number of GCMs and regional climate models

6. Climate – onemorepressure in the MENA region climate change (like other pressures) can affect social stability moresevereand persistent drought after 2005 thaneverbefore

7. Climate – onemorepressure in the MENA region climate change (like other pressures) can affect social stability moresevereand persistent drought after 2005 thaneverbefore contributedtomigrationto urban areas, increasingpressureandunrest

8. MENA: a casefor a nexusapproach

9. MENA: a casefor a nexusapproach general principles: generating synergies, reducing negative externalities, increasing productivities across resources and sectors and strengthening resilience • thenexusbuilds on establishedintegratedapproaches , such as: • ecosystemapproaches (CBD), e.g. „naturalinfrastructure“ • landscapeapproaches (World Bank), „improvedlandscapeconfiguration“ • multi-functionalsystems (IAASTD), e.g. reservoirs, co-generation ofenergyandwater….. new: real integration across sectors from the beginning (different from IWRM), and: synthesis of experience, outscaling, transfer

10. Howto do it – nexussolutions e.g. soil and water conservation for improved green water productivity, reduced irrigation demandand climate resilience climate-safe land use planningaccounting for change in precipitation, sea level rise etc. adding energy to the equation (e.g. agricultural intensification)moving towards renewable energye.g. for water pumping or seawater desalination „seeing is believing“ – making a nexus case at the farmers level

11. A nexusexamplefromLebanon • Solar power for irrigation in an organic farm in the Bekaa Valley • 12 ha farm, requiring constant water supply for livestock, vegetables, and fruit • ~ $50,000 annual electricity costs • frequent and severe power cuts required the farmer to rely on back up generators • switching irrigation system (which consumes most electricity) • to solar power (installation cost approximately $76,000) • makes the farm self-sustaining and profitable

12. A nexusexamplefrom Jordan Solar energy farming in the Azraq Basin problem: rapid aquifer depletion for irrigation and urban demands solar farming (photovoltaics) as income alternative for local farmers reducing water demand and associated fossil fuel demand for pumping increasing drought resilience participatory process through Highland Water Forum ACCWaM

13. Whydoesn‘tit happen - institutionalobstacles – an examplefromtheLebanon Ministry of Energy and Water: national water sector strategy, e.g. identifying agricultural water use efficiency as priority area Ministry of Agriculture: agriculture strategy doesn’t address water use efficiency Lack of communication and coordination even within MoEW Discrepancies between legal and de facto responsibilities among different institutions , e.g. due to embedded UNDP staff in key ministries – „shadow government“ Overlapping responsibilities among different institutions. Lack of institutional memory in the political system

14. Institutionalentrypoints • Strengthening bridging institutions e.g.: • Ministryof Environment, includingitsclimatechangeunit • National Council of Environment (different ministries , academicsandcivilsocietyrepresented • Lebanese Center for Energy Conservation (LCEC) • Lebanese Agriculture Research Institute (LARI), Using opportunities such as revisions of water, agricultural, energy, climate and other strategies and action plans for mainstreaming nexus principles,

15. Institutional (andeconomic) entrypoints • Raising interest by identifying economic benefits ( win-wins) • and opportunities for equitable development of different regions and sectors Developing economic incentives for reducing negative externalities across resources, sectors and regions, e.g. payments for environmental services Capacity building to meet knowledge requirements under increasing complexity

16. A proof-of-conceptnexusstudy in the MENA region (Lebanon) Integrating „local demands“ with scientific evidence base WEAP – Volta another smallreservoirs case hill-lake construction vs. larger damconstruction, integratingperspectivesof - waterstorage - power generation - landscapeconfiguration - landdegradation - otherecosystemservicesandbenefits building on USAID, ICARDA et al MENA Water and Livelihoods Initiative (WLI) Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Yemen, eventuallyforoutscalingandtransfer