Phil Sykes – University of Liverpool ASA Conference 2011

1. Triumph and disaster?: the financial future for university libraries in the age of the fee-paying student Phil Sykes – University of Liverpool ASA Conference 2011

2. An air of unreality? • UK university libraries have suffered, and will suffer, sharp reductions in funding • Publishers still appear minded to charge high price rises • “All changed, changed utterly”

3. So what is the financial future for our universities? • Short term (next three years): all bleak for all of us • Medium term (three to seven years): all bleak for most of us. • Long term............Distant points of light for some.

4. Browne Review • Recommended no cap on fees (but with a sort of graduated tax on fees above £6,000) • Recommended moving away from central determination of student numbers and allowing aggregate national student numbers to rise by 10% • Would have been good for universities (and publishers) financially

5. Comprehensive Spending Review Settlement (1) • Massive reduction in teaching and student support budget (£2.9bn, 40%), leading to c80% cut in teaching grant and no government funding for non-STEM subjects • Fees lifted to between £6k and £9k, but only to go above £6k in “exceptional circumstances”. (Need about £7,500-£8000 to make up for reduction in teaching grant)

6. Comprehensive Spending Review Settlement (2) • Consultation on the student numbers issue, but looks like open competition for a fixed aggregate number of students will be allowed • Flat cash for research = 9-10% real term cut at 2.5% inflation • 44% reduction in capital by 2014-15 • Other cuts – e.g. in NHS spending – are bound to impact upon H.E.

7. Overall effect of the CSR settlement – three to seven years hence • Reductions in funding all round apart from £9k fee • Only a minority of institutions likely to charge £9k fee, because of • Reasons of principle • Pricing themselves into the market • Government compulsion • Most of the minority that charge £9k likely to lose out through greater selectivity in research funding

8. Short term financial prospects – next three years • All bleak for all of us because of the “Valley of death” • Funding reductions take place straight away • But ameliorating effect of increased student fees only kicks in gradually

9. Why is this any different from financial pressures on universities in the past? • In the noughties, overall real terms funding for universities was growing • In the eighties and nineties, funding per student (the “unit of resource”) was declining but student numbers were expanding; • The ability to pay for journals is a function of overall funding, not funding per student. • Now, both funding per student and absolute levels of funding will shrink.

10. Why is this any different from financial pressures on universities in the past? • Journal budgets seen by universities principally as a research overhead • Changes in funding will divert money from research to improving teaching/student experience • .....and will put an end to any cross-subsidy of research from teaching budgets • So less money for research and research journals

11. What else has changed? • Vice-Chancellors require libraries to tackle the ever-burgeoning journal bill • Journal bills now so large that they are a significant problem, not just for the library, but for the university as a whole • Changed attitude on the part of academics who realise that sum equivalent to 10% of QR grant goes on journals; and they make a major (free) contribution through peer-review and editorial work

12. Are there ways libraries, subscription agents and publishers can work together to reduce costs? • Moving to all electronic? • Moving to “all-in” as opposed to “opt-in” deals as the Scottish H.E institution have done?

13. Note from university libraries to publishers “I’m afraid to tell you there’s no more money. Kind regards and good luck”. (With apologies to Liam Byrne)