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Climate Change – The Greatest Threat to Mankind? Hard Choices Ahead – the CRED Project. Park Lane Methodist Church 21st May 2006. Keith Tovey. Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre School of Environmental Sciences, UEA. C Red.

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  1. Climate Change – The Greatest Threat to Mankind? Hard Choices Ahead – the CRED Project Park Lane Methodist Church 21st May 2006 Keith Tovey • Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv • Energy Science Director: Low Carbon InnovationCentre • School of Environmental Sciences, UEA CRed

  2. 2003 1979 Climate Change Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 • Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region • Nasa satellite imagery The loss of ice cover reduces amount of heat reflected and hence more warming. • 20% reduction in 24 years CRed Source: Nasa www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

  3. Norwich Consequence of ~ 1m rise Consequence of ~ 6m rise (Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London) Norwich City would be playing water polo!

  4. Difficult Choices Ahead 2003 2004 2005 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods - figures taken from Energy Review 2002 CRed

  5. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

  6. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq km But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.

  7. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable • Transport Fuels: • Biodiesel? • Bioethanol? But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity needs.

  8. Waste could provide up to 15% of our energy needs Or should it go to Landfill? Is it better to recycle? How is UK doing compared to other EU Countries? But is incineration the best route – are there alternatives?

  9. Process description Feed Preparation Pyrolysis materials recovery and recycling Boiler Sodium Bicarbonate cyclonic separator particulates >10 microns bypass damper Bag Filter compacting air lock Condenser Turbine Ammonia 1250°C DeNOx Catalyst Electricity Heat Stack air bottom ash steam Fuel (warm-up only) carbon recycling air Gasification Oxidation Energy Recovery Flue Gas Clean Up WASTE

  10. The size of such plants is small compared to incinerators.

  11. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

  12. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

  13. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

  14. Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004 Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh

  15. Our Choices: They are difficult • Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. • Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. • If our answer is NO • Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? • Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks? • If our answer is NO • Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly • unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

  16. Our Choices: They are difficult • If our answer is YES • By 2020 • we will be dependent on GAS • for around 70% of our heating and electricity • imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria • Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> • If not: • We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. • Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

  17. Historic and Future Demand for Electricity Number of households will rise by 17.5% by 2025 and consumption per household must fall by this amount just to remain static

  18. Electricity Options for the Future • Low Growth Scenario • Capped at 420 TWh • 33% CO2 reduction (Gas) cf 1990 • 62% CO2 reduction (Nuclear) cf 1990 • 68 % increase in gas consumption • ( Gas Scenario) cf 2002 • Mix option: 6 new nuclear plant by 2025 • Mix option: 11% increase in gas • consumption (cf 2002) • High Growth Scenario • Business as Usual • 0.3 % CO2 reduction (Gas) cf 1990 • 54% CO2 reduction (Nuclear) cf 1990 • 257% increase in gas consumption • ( Gas Scenario) cf 2002 • 25% Renewables by 2025 • 20000 MW Wind • 16000 MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro, biomass etc.

  19. Our Choices: They are difficult A diverse renewable supply will be local, and will be less prone to cascade power cuts such as those recently in US, London, Italy, Denmark. Conventional generation is based on large units: 500 – 660 MW enough to supply over 1 million homes. These do fail from time to time, and require much greater backup than required for the failure of a few wind turbines. Renewable generation is less prone to major interruption We must not get drawn into a single issue debate – a rational debate covering all the alternatives is needed. Available Renewables: Nuclear: Conservation

  20. Our Choices: They are difficult - Myths Wind Turbines are Incredibly Inefficient • Efficiency: • the ratio of the USEFUL work to the total energy available (or expended) • Oxford English Dictionary Modern Wind Turbines convert 40 – 42%% of available energy in the wind Modern Coal Fired Power Stations achieve 38% Sizewell B achieves 32% A car engine achieve 30% at best Compared to many other energy devices, Wind Turbines are Very Efficient

  21. Our Choices: They are difficult - Myths Are those who say that Wind Turbines are inefficient really meaning that they have a low load factor. Definition: production (or consumption) as a proportion of rated output (consumption). • UK wind turbines have a much higher load factor than German, Danish and Spanish because of much higher wind speeds • 27% but likely to increase with offshore turbines A car driven 10 000 miles a year has a load factor of 1 – 3% Less than one tenth of a wind turbine

  22. Our Choices: They are difficult - Myths • Latest some evidence to suggest that a few birds are killed typically 3 per installed MW per year except in a few locations. • the oldest wind farm in UK on Burgar Hill has an RSPB reserve right next to it. • in Orkney a party from UEA came across new fewer than 3 dead birds on roads in 2 days in area around turbines. • Currently UK has around 850 MW installed perhaps 2500 killed a year • Estimates of 1 million killed each year by vehicles • British Trust for Ornithology estimate 100 million birds collide with fixed objects of whom one third are killed Wind Energy: The Issues Wind Turbines kill birds

  23. Our Choices: They are difficult • Wind Turbines are beautiful! • Wind Turbines are Ugly! • What is the consequence of not using wind alongside conservation, biomass etc?. • Insecure supply of Electricity when we import fossil fuels from Russia • The North Norfolk Coal Field • Increased Famine • 30 new nuclear power stations in the UK by 2025 • Increased incidence of extreme weather events.

  24. On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year. How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. Around 4 million in Norfolk "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

  25. Raising Awareness • Computers do NOT switch off when using the soft “SHUT DOWN”. Typically they will waste 60 kg CO2 a year. • 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. • A Mobile Phone charger: > 20 kWh per year • ~ 1000 balloons each year. • Standby on electrical appliances • 80+ kWh a year - 4000 balloons. • A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m. • Filling up with petrol (~£35 for a full tank – 40 litres) • --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for1 hour? 1.6 miles

  26. Involve the local Community • Many residents on island of Burray (Orkney) compaigned for a wind turbine. • On average they are fully self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity

  27. Electricity Statistics: City of Norwich • Each house in Norwich consumes, 3727 kWh per year. • Broadland 5057 kWh Breckland 5612 kWh • North Norfolk 5668 kWh South Norfolk 5797 kWh • Kings Lynn and West Norfolk 5908 kWh • Great Yarmouth 5144 kWh • A wind farm the size of Scroby Sands would supply 52% of domestic needs for whole of Norwich (or 18% of total demand) • Would save ~ 55 000 to 60 000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year or 32 000 hot air balloons each year. • The alternative: • Persuade 24 000 motorists never to drive the car again • Or240 000 motorists to drive 1000 miles less each year.

  28. Conclusions • Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades • Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future. • Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy • It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take. • Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years. • Otherwise Nuclear??? • Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us.

  29. Hard Choices • What can we as individuals do? • What can you do collectively as a Community? • Visit the CRed WEB Site • Sign a pledge to • combat global warming • help secure a sustainable environment for our children • help reduce the adverse impacts of Global Warming • help secure energy supplies for the future • saving energy • Adopting technical solutions • Promoting Awareness • Promoting appropriate renewable energy www.cred-uk.org

  30. WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org This presentation will be available on WEB from tomorrow: >follow Academic Resources Link Conclusions • Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room This is a challeneg for Christians and people worldwide Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge? "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading." LaoTzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

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