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Dialogue on Cooperative Action

Dialogue on Cooperative Action. India Presentation Surya P. Sethi Principal Adviser Energy Nov 16, 2006. Outline. Review of Annex I actions to reduce GHGs emissions India in the global context Low carbon pathway: sectoral opportunities in India CDM: in the post 2012 regime.

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Dialogue on Cooperative Action

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  1. Dialogue on Cooperative Action India Presentation Surya P. Sethi Principal Adviser Energy Nov 16, 2006

  2. Outline • Review of Annex I actions to reduce GHGs emissions • India in the global context • Low carbon pathway: sectoral opportunities in India • CDM: in the post 2012 regime

  3. Review of Annex I National Communications - Highlights

  4. GHG emission changes in select Annex I countries (w/o LULUCF) over KP target/EU burden sharing • Only UK, Sweden and France have been able to achieve their targets (Note: Sweden’s target had been +4% and that of France 0%) • Germany shows good progress but is still behind the target • EC15 at minus 0.6 is much behind the target of minus 8% • GHG emissions in Canada, Italy, Japan & Netherlands have increased, against their emission reduction targets. Norway has far exceeded the permitted increase in emissions. UNFCCC 2006

  5. Changes in GHG emissions (1990-2004) CO2vs. other gases in select Annex I countries • Emission reduction in Germany, UK and EC 15 is mainly due to reductions of non CO2 gases • Only UK and Germany have achieved CO2 reduction UNFCCC 2006

  6. Emission Projections for 2010 in percent of base year emissions(UNFCCC 2006) • Neither Annex I nor EU 15 will meet Kyoto targets even with additional measures • The situation worsens if EITs excluded

  7. India in the Global Context

  8. India’s Growth Strategy Sustainable • Source : Key Energy Indicators IEA 2005; Planning Commission, India

  9. Per-capita consumption levels per-unit of inhabited land area • India ranks the lowest

  10. CO2 Emissions from Key Material Inputs for Infrastructure Development 1771 • S1 Scenario assumes India matches consumption levels of EU 15 on a per capita per square kilometer bases for Aluminum, Cement & Steel by 2031-32 • Co2 emissions increase from 1251 million tonnes (BAU) to 3022 million tonnes (S1) in 2031  Increase of 1771 million tonnes in S1 relative to BAU in 2031

  11. Low carbon pathway: Sectoral opportunities in India

  12. Relative CO2 emissions from Energy Sector Activities CO2 emission (2003) India 1050 (million tonnes), World (24983), China (3760) USA (5729) CO2 emissions/capita (2003): India 0.99 (tonnes), World (3.99), China (2.90), USA (19.68) Source: (IEA, Statistics, CO2 emissions from Fuel Combustion 1971-2003, 2005) Share of CO2 emissions from Large Point Sources (LPS) of energy and transformation industries (1995) Fossil power (94): 47% Steel (11): 6 (%) Cement (85): 9% (Source: Garg and Shukla, 2004) Source: NATCOM India, 2004

  13. Sectoral CDM Opportunities • Power Generation • Accelerated Renovation and Modernization of Old Plants • Clean coal technologies • Ultra supercritical • IGCC based on indigenous coal • IGCC based on imported coal • Efficient Gas (H-Frame CCGT) • Renewables (Wind, Small Hydro, PV, Biomass) • Iron and Steel Production • Efficiency improvement in existing plants (all retrofitted by 2017) • Introduction of Best Available Technology (BAT) in BF-BOF plant • Increased Share of BF-BOF (with BAT) in total steel production • Cement Production • Modernization of existing 4 and 5 stage to 6 stage systems (all retrofitted by 2017) • Waste heat recovery based cogeneration (30% electricity saving) • Increased share of blended cement • Reduction of process CO2 emissions during clinker production

  14. Sectoral CDM Potential During 2012-17(Power, Iron &Steel, Cement) • CO2 Emissions reduction potential of about 550 million tonnes during 2012-17 • Highest emissions reduction potential is in the power sector (309 MT) • India’s cement and steel sectors are closer to international emission norms as reflected by their lower reduction potential

  15. Additional Investment Requirements (2012-17) for Transition to Low Carbon Path, vis-a-vis Select Development Outlays of GoI for Tenth Plan Additional investment requirements to the tune of 25.1 Billion US$ (at 2001 Prices) similar order of magnitude as plan support for meeting social and environmental development targets

  16. Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Power, Steel and Cement Sectors (All options) [For 2012-17] • Total additional investment requirement : 25.1 billion US$ • For options with positive mitigation cost total additional investment requirement : 22.3 billion US$ • Mitigation cost is highest for SPV: 925.8 $/tonne . This has not been plotted

  17. Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Power Sector (for 2012-17) • Total additional investment requirement : 17 billion US$ • For options with positive mitigation cost total additional investment requirement : 15 billion US$ • Mitigation cost is highest for SPV: 925.8 $/tonne . This has not been plotted

  18. India’s Suggestions at the G-8 Summit • Place Energy Efficient and sustainable technologies in limited public domain • Replace traditional technology transfer with collaborative R&D • New Multilateral Window to provide additional funding for the above against the security of robust long term carbon markets

  19. CDM in the post 2012 regime

  20. Ensuring a Carbon Market: Post 2012 Regime • A long-term market • Unequivocal commitment to continuation of CDM post 2012 • Deeper ER cuts by Annex I countries • Longer commitment period • Single universal unit example: CERs • Urgent need for guidelines on programmatic CDM • Automatic approval of projects below Sectoral Baselines

  21. Ensuring a Carbon Market: Post 2012 Regime…. • Simplified process for determining additionality of small solar, wind and hydro • Transparent, consistent and non- discriminatory process for registration of projects by the EB • With the above in place venture capital would follow CDM even in regions where CDM projects are currently scarce

  22. An ounce of practice is worth more than a ton of preaching

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