Marlene Attzs Senior Technical Officer and PhD Candidate

1. Preliminary Review of the economic impact of climate change on Caribbean Tourism: what is at risk and adapting for sustainable tourism development Marlene Attzs Senior Technical Officer and PhD Candidate Sustainable Economic Development Unit (SEDU) Department of Economics, University of the West Indies St. Augustine Trinidad OAS Meeting on Adaptation to Climate Change in the Caribbean Tourism Sector Workshop, Grenada, May 27-28, 2002.

2. Content of Presentation • 1. Science of Climate Change • 2. Anticipated impacts of climate change on SIDS • 3. Vulnerability and Adaptation • 4. Definitional Review of Sustainable Tourism Development • Application to the Caribbean • o6. Need for economic policy instruments to address risk and to • promote adaptation to CC particularly for the tourism sector

3. Science of Climate Change Climate Change may be summarised as a situation where the atmosphere’s carrying capacity for assimilating/absorbing GHGs has been breached/surpassed. The 1995 IPCC report concluded that there has been “a discernible human influence on global climate…”. The primary sources of these anthropogenic or human-induced factors have been increased burning of fossil fuels and the use of aerosols.

4. Sustainable Tourism Development Challenges to the Sustainable Development of the Caribbean Tourism Industry 1. to maintain the industry within the region’s ecological and socio-cultural carrying capacity. 2. to anticipate and adapt to climate change inclusive of an increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters, mean sea level rise and increased temperature.

5. Anticipated Impacts of Climate Change on SIDS Surface Temperatures : sea-surface temperature to increase by about 1C over the next 100 years Rainfall : to increase by 20-30% over tropical oceans Extreme Events (including hurricanes and cyclones) to increase by about 40% . Latest projections by Gray (2002) suggest that the 2002 hurricane season will be “active” and “above average” with 12 named storms; 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. (the average per year is 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes).

6. Anticipated Impacts of Climate Change on SIDS Sea Level Rise: could increase by an average of 5mm per annum resulting in, inter alia, direct loss of economic, ecological, cultural and subsistence values through loss of land, infrastructure and coastal habitats;Increased flood risk of people, land and infrastructure; and Other impacts related to changes in water management, salinity and biological activity.

7. Vulnerability and Adaptation Vulnerability to Climate Change is the amount of damage a region/sector could experience in light of climate change. The literature suggests that the extent to which human communities are able to adapt to CC would depend on (a) the number and nature of changes which result from CC (b) the rate at which (frequency) of these changes occur and (c) the cost of these changes. Tol, Fankhauser and Smith (1998) report that an ecosystem’s vulnerability to CC is a function of (a) the sensitivity of the system to CC and (b) the ability of the system to adapt to CC.

8. The vulnerability of SIDS relates to their very geographical location. In the case of Caribbean SIDS, these are located in the "hurricane belt" The frequency and intensity of hurricanes, have increased in recent years. The small populations and generally mono-crop economies of most Caribbean States means that whenever a disaster strikes it affects a large proportion of the economy and people, and development of the countries could be set back by several years.

9. Hurricane Luis, Antigua and Barbuda in 1995 - damage estimated in excess of EC$810 Mn(approx US$ 270Mn ) million in damages and resulted in the closing of all hotels. This amounted to 71 per cent of the island's GDP with an estimated 83 % of GDPfrom tourism. Anguilla also suffered damages, which were estimated to be 147 per cent of its GDP.

10. What is at risk in the Caribbean The wider Caribbean region with its many island based economies such as fishing and/or tourism, is particularly vulnerable to the physical changes associated with climate change and sea level rise… (UNEP 1993, 10) Jackson (1984) noted that the majority of tourist facilities in the Caribbean are in close proximity to the sea – within 800 metres of the high water mark.

11. What is at risk in the Caribbean Tourism Assets: Antigua & Barbuda: Hurricanes Luis and Marilyn (1995) devastated coastal areas, causing severe damage to hotel and other tourism properties and leading to significant reductions in tourism arrivals and adversely affecting employment and foreign exchange. Similar experiences in 1998 and 1999 with the passage of Hurricanes Jose, Georges and Lenny.

12. What is at risk in the Caribbean Barbados: 70% of the island’s hotels located within 250 metres of the high water mark which suggests a lot of hotels almost exclusively within the 1 in 500 and 1 in 100 inundation zones, placing them at risk of major structural damage Dominica: Hurricane Lenny (1999) caused approximately US$250,000.00 damages to tourism infrastructure mainly along the west coast.

13. What is at risk in the Caribbean St Lucia: Hurricane Lenny (1999) had significant impacts, primarily in the coastal environment, even though the storm remained hundreds of miles away from St Lucia St. Vincent and the Grenadines: no direct impact from triple storm systems of 1995 (Iris, Luis, and Marilyn) but coastal areas received considerable damage from storm surge associated with these systems.

14. What is at risk in the Caribbean Other assets Private Property Public Infrastructure (roads, bridges, hospitals, public utilities etc.)

15. Adaptation to Climate Change impacts O1. Anticipatory vs Reactionary Adaptation O2.Do Nothing, Managed Retreat, Aggressive Defence Adaptation to hurricanes, perhaps the most effective adaptation strategies would be either retrofitting of homes/businesses against hurricane force winds as a precautionary measure or ensuring that in thedesign, planning and construction phases there is strict adherence to building codes which have been designed to “protect” structures against the impacts of hurricanes including, high speed winds, flash-flooding etc.

16. Economic Policy Instruments to facilitate Adaptation 1. Tax-based incentives (eg. Soft loans) 2. Public Education 3. Command and Control (legislation and policies) 5. National/Regional adaptation strategies (investing in hard/soft engineering, research into the climate change to better understand the national/regional implications of climate change)