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Trial Calculation Review

Trial Calculation Review. 31 Homer Road, Solihull 18 th March 2010.

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Trial Calculation Review

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  1. Trial Calculation Review 31 Homer Road, Solihull 18th March 2010 “Whilst every effort is made to ensure the technical accuracy of the information contained within this presentation, xoserve can accept no responsibility for any claims (however they arise) made against the company as a result of using the information contained within this presentation” Version v1.0

  2. Team Structure Version v1.0

  3. Version v1.0

  4. Actions from previous AQ Review Group Meeting that was held on 12th November 2009 Version v1.0

  5. Actions A suggestion was made as to whether Speculative Calculator File Submission by SHP: Slide 15 could be modified to capture: • How many Spec Calcs were rejected and whether a column can be added to the slide to show the rejected volumes? xoserve will capture and include this figure for the Actual AQ Review 2010. Action Closed • Could the Spec Calcs be split into market sector, SSP & LSP? Unfortunately the Spec Calc system does not lend itself to produce or identify this additional data, therefore we will be unable to deliver the second request. Action Closed EUC Codes 2010 A presentation was given explaining there will not be enough EUC Codes available on Sites and Meters for the AQ review during 2012. There will be further communications at operational forums regarding this issue. The opportunity to gather information on how the industry use the EUC codes. Action: All Shippers to provide concerns and potential impacts by the end of the year to the AQ mailbox aqq.spa@xoserve.com: Action Closed AQ Survey The AQ Team would like to carry out an AQ Customer Satisfaction: All Shippers to complete and return completed survey to AQ mailbox: aqq.spa@xoserve.com: Action Closed Version v1.0

  6. Actions AQ Appeals Activity xoserve was asked to provide the volume of AQ Appeals for the same period in 2008 as a comparison : Action Closed Version v1.0

  7. Actions TOG – Theft of Gas Action: xoserve to provided the 104 thefts where the AQ calculation has overlapped the theft and identify the actual theft period. Action Closed Action: A report is issued to the industry in an excel spread sheet titled ‘TOG Analysis All Shippers Monthly 2009 (Shipper Version)’. Action Closed Action: The Shippers to supply comments/feedback on this proposal by the Forum in March. It is anticipated that this item will appear once again on the agenda. Action Open Seasonal Normal Review: Is there scope for the User pays spec calc charge to be dropped this year?This item was on the agenda at the User Pays Forum. Action Closed BTU Form A presentation on the BTU Form giving the three specific uses with the relevant UNC references, these being the Manifest Error, New Business Appeal and MOD99. National Grid have presented this issue at a Distribution Work stream meeting: http://www.gasgovernance.co.uk/sites/default/files/AQAppealsandtheBTUformNGD_0.ppt Action: The details of all these MODs can be viewed on the Gas Governance website. www.gasgovernance.co.uk. The MOD94 and 95 were implemented but MOD96 was rejected. Action Closed Version v1.0

  8. Seasonal Normal Review Update Version v1.0

  9. Background • The seasonal normal weather basis should be a reasonable representation of “normal” weather in each LDZ • The current set of SNCWVs were agreed in 2005 and are based on 17 years of historical data (1987/88 to 2003/04) • Revised SNCWVs have now been calculated for the next defined seasonal normal period, namely from 1st October 2010 until 30th September 2015 • AQs represent a sites annual consumption at seasonal normal weather • WAALPs used in AQ formula performs the role of converting the RMQ to an ‘annual seasonal normal’ consumption Version v1.0

  10. WAALPs • AQ Formula as described in 3.4.1 of Section H UNC • AQ Review 2010 calculations will be done using WAALPs on new seasonal normal basis • WAALP's have been restated back to AQ backstop date (1st October 2006 (3.4.3) • Where AQs fail to calculate (‘carry forwards’) then a ratio will be applied to ensure AQ represents new seasonal normal basis (3.4.4) Version v1.0

  11. Impacts to AQs of Seasonal Normal Review • Overall % warming is a little over 4% nationally. • Annual aggregate NDM AQ changes have been: • 4.4% (reduction) in 2009/10 • 3.4% (reduction) in 2008/09 • 4.0% (reduction) in 2007/08 • Not unreasonable to expect a similar AQ reduction in 2010/11 (e.g. ~4%) irrespective of the seasonal normal basis change (e.g. general demand reduction). • Overall change could be of the order of 8%. Version v1.0

  12. Next Steps • xoserve to publish the following data on UK Link Docs secured area before the end of March: • Annual Load Profiles (ALP): GY 2006/07, 07/08, 08/09 & 09/10 • Daily Adjustment Factors (DAF): GY 2006/07, 07/08, 08/09 & 09/10 • Estimated Weather Correction Factor (EWCF): 2006/07, 07/08, 08/09 & 09/10* • * EWCF can only be calculated once temperature and wind speed measurements for the gas day are known (i.e. CWV calculation) • EWCF published upto gas day 28/02/2010 • For remainder of gas year EWCF file will be updated once a month with latest EWCF values (Action from last meeting) • Any questions regarding the data should be directed to: mark.j.perry@xoserve.com Version v1.0

  13. Trial Calculation Review 31 Homer Road, Solihull 18th March 2010 “Whilst every effort is made to ensure the technical accuracy of the information contained within this presentation, xoserve can accept no responsibility for any claims (however they arise) made against the company as a result of using the information contained within this presentation” Version v1.0

  14. AQ’s Calculated – Actual Calc Version v1.0

  15. AQ’s Calculated – Trial Calc Version v1.0

  16. Energy Movement Version v1.0

  17. Energy Movement LSP - LSP Version v1.0

  18. Energy Movement SSP – SSP Version v1.0

  19. Energy Movement Threshold Crossers Version v1.0

  20. AQ Team ValidationsSSP Version v1.0

  21. AQ Team ValidationsLSP Version v1.0

  22. SSP Energy Report Version v1.0

  23. LSP Energy Report Version v1.0

  24. SSP Warnings Reports 2010 Trial Calc Version v1.0

  25. SSP Warnings Reports 2010 Trial Calc Version v1.0

  26. LSP Warnings Reports 2010 Trial Calc Version v1.0

  27. LSP Warnings Reports 2010 Trial Calc Version v1.0

  28. AQ Appeals Version v1.0

  29. AQ Appeal Activity 2009 Version v1.0

  30. AQ Appeal Activity 2010 Version v1.0

  31. AQ Appeal Activity 2009-2010 Version v1.0

  32. AQ Appeal Activity Version v1.0

  33. WC Appeal Activity Version v1.0

  34. AQ Appeal Activity Version v1.0

  35. 2010 AQ Review Timetable Version v1.0

  36. Version v1.0

  37. Transfer of Ownership Version v1.0

  38. Transfer of Ownership History The GT’s are responsible for calculating an AQ value for each Meter Point using data provided by the Shipper (Reads and Assets) and apply certain criteria and rules in order to calculate the AQ value. During the annual AQ Review the incoming shipper: • may not be aware of the xoserve proposed AQ value • is aware of the xoserve proposed AQ value but does not have the necessary Reads/Assets to challenge and replace the xoserve proposed AQ value Action All Meter Points that are within the dataset supplied by British Gas: • will not be amended by xoserve in the first instance • any successful AQ Amendment will define the AQ value for the 1st October 2010 • any meter points that have not had a successful AQ amendment will be reviewed by xoserve as per the normal process • a Backstop date will be applied to all meter points that are not amended Version v1.0

  39. Transfer of Ownership Timeline • 1st April 2010 - Identify all Transfer of Ownership • Incoming Shipper to contact British Gas for Read and Asset details • Contact at British Gas - Nicky James - nicky.james@centrica.co.uk • 13th August – where no AQ Amendment has been successfully submitted xoserve will review the proposed AQ value • 23rd September second phase: identifying any additional Transfer of Ownership since the 13th August ** This will only apply to Meter Points that are within the dataset defined by British Gas and have been part of a Transfer of Ownership** Version v1.0

  40. AQ Team Customer Satisfaction Survey Results Version v1.0

  41. AQ Team Customer Satisfaction Survey Results Version v1.0

  42. Any Other Business Version v1.0

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