Transport Planning Society Transport and Climate Change – facing the carbon emissions challenge David Quarmby CBE 25 Apr

Transport Planning Society Transport and Climate Change – facing the carbon emissions challenge David Quarmby CBE 25 April 2007

Transport and Climate ChangeFacing the Carbon Emissions Challenge • Setting the Scene • Transport and carbon emissions - the challenge • Issues to address • Sectoral reduction targets • Transport efficiency measures • Transport behavioural change • Government and public attitudes? • Conclusions so far

Setting the scene • A fast moving scenario • UK Climate Change Programme – March 2006 • HoC Environmental Audit Committee – July 2006 • Stern Report – September 2006 and forthcoming government response • Mini-Budget put up APD but nothing else – Nov 06 • Eddington backs full environmental pricing – Dec 06 • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • First report Jan 07 – on temperature change • Second report Mar 07 – on impacts • Climate Change Bill published – Mar 07 • Budget increases fuel duty, steepens VED • Transport Sec Douglas Alexander major speech – Mar 07

Setting the scene • The basic proposition about climate change • IPCC2: huge impacts in developing world • “Adaptation take precedence over CO2 reduction”? • Stern: • could shrink global economies by 20%, losses of £3.5 trillion • If appropriate action now, could cost 1% of global GDP • Kyoto – reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 12.5% below 1990 by 2012 (exc aviation & shipping) • Focus on CO2 emissions, 85% of greenhouse gas

Setting the scene • UK is committed to CO2 reduction of • 20% below 1990 levels by 2010 • 60% reduction by 2050; Climate Change Bill enshrines in law • Reduction from 161.5 MtC to • 129 MtC by 2010 • 65 MtC by 2050

Eleanor McKay – TPS Bursary Presentation – 18 April 2007

Setting the scene • 1990 reference level of 161.5 MtC • By 2000, already down to 150 MtC – but • Stuck there - by 2006, risen again to 153 MtC (highest since 1997) The UK’s targets are very ambitious Government has willed the ends, but said nothing about the means UK performance can be profoundly affected by marginal change in one sector

Setting the scene • Why bother – UK less than 3% of global emissions • Four reasons to bother and act • There is no silver bullet – every little helps • Would have no moral authority to persuade others • Global business opportunities for the UK in products and services relating to carbon reduction, energy efficiency and emissions trading systems • UK: a low carbon economy increasingly competitive • But must stay closely in step with EU to guard UK competitive position

Transport and Carbon Emissions • UK transport carbon emissions rising from 1990 • Road transport +10% to 2005 • Aviation (domestic and UK international) doubled to 2004; UK international aviation excluded from table: Transport %of all CO2 emissions The forecasts are DfT; EU forecasts are higher for UK

Transport and Carbon Emissions • Emissions from cars stable – improved fuel efficiency offset growth in car ownership and use • Emissions from road freight vehicles rising – growth in numbers, little fuel efficiency impacts • Emissions from aviation growing the fastest, international and domestic

Transport and Carbon Emissions • UK aviation = domestic + international departures • Source DTI White Paper; *Tyndall Centre • Effect of radiative forcing means climate change impact of aviation CO2 emissions is at least doubled

Issues to address • How to allocate reductions between sectors – what trajectory? • What transport efficiency measures • What transport behaviour change? how to evaluate and prioritise? • Government and public attitudes

Reductions between sectors • Counter-productive to allocate long term targets between sectors? • Analysing trade-offs, financial-economic-social costs with each measure and its reduction value • Cost minimising trajectory • Assemble ‘best package’ of measures

Reductions between sectors • 40% of CO2 emissions directly influenced by individuals on a day-to-day basis • Is the government doing any analysis of tradeoffs?

Transport - efficiencies • Reduction of emissions with no change in transport output • New cars 10% more fuel efficient 2004 vs 1997 • EU had target of 120 g/km average for new cars by 2012 • EU now legislated at 130 g/km • Currently new cars averaging 161 g/km (European) and 169 g/km (Asian)

Transport - efficiencies • How to deliver • Much higher proportion of diesel cars • Increased offer and take up of hybrid cars • Reduction of average car size and weight • UK: company car tax scheme since 2002 successfully incentivised change • UK: graduated VED is ineffective • Low Carbon Vehicle partnership • King/Stern study • How, when to reach 100 g/km • Decarbonise cars by 2025

Transport - efficiencies • Fastest rising source of surface transport carbon emissions is road freight and light vans • Light vans subject to same graduated VED • HGV VED - no fuel efficiency or carbon incentives beyond EURO IV and EURO V requirements • London LEZ will force fleet renewal or retrofitting • Hybrid engines offer leap in efficiency

Transport - efficiencies • Hybrid powertrain – • primary source (petrol or diesel, in future fuel cell?) + • energy capture, storage and release (electricity or flywheel) • Productionised is petrol-electric (cars) and diesel-electric (buses and large goods vehicles) • Cars: Toyota Prius, Honda Civic, Lexus deliver 30-50% improvement in fuel efficiency and reduction in CO2 emissions

Hybrid powertrain Series |Motor-|transmission Engine Generator Battery >>>>>> <<<<<< ===== >>>> Parallel Engine Generator-Motor Transmission ======== ====== >>>>>> <<<<<< Battery

Transport - efficiencies • Hybrid bus • Wright – series powertrain, adds 60% to cost of standard diesel bus; less when productionised • Volvo – parallel powertrain – ISAM (Integrated Starter, Alternator and Motor): working to 25-35% premium including batteries and control systems • Both claim ~ 35% reduction in fuel consumption and carbon emissions • Volvo also offering ISAM powertrain for trucks • Hybrid only hope for big reductions in truck emissions

Volvo ISAM Parallel hybrid

Transport - efficiencies • Rail – CO2 emissions one-third of car per pass-km • Rail rolling stock energy consumption has increased in last 15 years • Rail getting the message? • Eurostar ‘Tread Lightly’ initiative • Opportunities in railway practices

Transport - efficiencies • Aviation • New aircraft today 70% more fuel efficient than 40 years ago, 20% better than 10 years ago • Further improvements of 20% by 2015 and 40-50% by 2050 • Includes 10% due to ATM operational efficiencies • Typical shorthaul flight releases 170 g/km per passenger in carbon emissions comparable to larger cars – but greenhouse gas effect times 2+ • Problem is emissions per hour, not per km • Aviation ‘problem’ is also the rapid forecast growth

Transport – behaviour change • Efficiency improvements necessary and welcome, but major behaviour change essential to reach reduction targets • Modest reduction by voluntary action by individuals and firms • Wide range of measures to influence modes of travel, total amount of travel and the use of less carbon-emitting modes

Transport – behaviour change • Smarter travel • Public transport improvements • Urban form and land use changes • ICT developments • Fuel taxes • Road pricing • Aviation taxes • Aviation in emission trading scheme

Transport – behaviour change • Smarter travel – soft measures to influence modal choice • Workplace and school travel plans, travel demand management, individualised marketing • Car clubs and car sharing • Making cycling easier and safer • Necessary to complement harder measures such as taxation

Transport – behaviour change • Public transport improvements • Bus and rail improvements can influence modal choice – services/network, marketing, ticketing, realtime information, attractiveness and acceptability • Investment and planning • Difficult with deregulated bus regime in GB outside London • Bus and rail also need to improve their energy efficiency

Transport – behaviour change • Urban form and land-use changes • Achieving greater concentration and less car-dependence in towns and cities • Will have major impacts over longer period of time

Transport – behaviour change • ICT developments • Already ‘working at home’ one or two days a week significant for many employees, using broadband connections • Small businesses in ICT-related sectors increasingly based at home or very close to home • More video conferencing • Limited long term effect – some face-to-face contact will be necessary for many; loss of water-cooler community?

Transport – behaviour change • Road Fuel taxes • Probably inevitable in the short medium term – easy to administer. Known effects to deter travel • Government still smarting from September 2000 fuel tax ‘revolt’ • Likely that only limited increases will be acceptable in the short term

Transport – behaviour change • Road pricing • Serious consideration by government and some local authorities; recognise no long term alternative to combating traffic congestion • Technology interesting but not an issue – tag and beacon or GPS • My view – could have universal road pricing within 15 years – but current public acceptability issues? • Provides platform for incentivising use of lower emission vehicles, travel by lower emission modes, and in circumstances when vehicles emit less CO2

Transport – behaviour change • Aviation taxes • Demand for air travel forecast to grow fastest, and carbon emissions with it • On grounds of fairness, substantial changes in the tax regime inevitable • 85% of air travel is ‘tourism’ – holidays, visiting friends and relatives, and business ‘tourism’ – conferences, conventions and exhibitions • Evidence suggests high price elasticity – 10% increase in fares > 5-15% reduction in travel • Impacts depend on whether in step with EU or not

Transport – behaviour change • Aviation emissions trading • EU-ETS – probably a necessary step to bring aviation into some form of carbon emissions rationing and trading • Where are the starting allowances set? • Demand for air travel comes from the consumer market – market responds to price changes • Effect will depend on tightness of allowances, the trading price of carbon units and how it works through into fares • May not have much impact in short-medium term

VIBAT study • Two ‘images’ of the UK • ‘new market economy’ – focus on technological and efficiency changes • ‘smart social policy’ – behaviour change plays a more central role: some reduction in car trips but length reduced • Packages of policy measures to correspond with the scenarios • Evaluated for reduction impact and deliverability

VIBAT study • Conclusions • The 60% reduction cannot be delivered in the ‘New Market Economy’ scenario • Could be delivered with ‘Smart Social Policy’ scenario, providing major behaviour change occurs, and technological innovations assumed

Where is the government? • 2000 UK CCP measures • Company car tax reform • Graduated VED • Fuel duty escalator (short lived!) • Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation > 5% of UK fuel sales by 2010

Where is the government? • 2006 UK CCP • Improving vehicle fuel efficiency • Support new vehicle technologies (LowCVP) • Use vehicle taxation > lower carbon • Behaviour change – public transport, travel demand management • HoC EAC critical of its lack of ambition and its low forecasts of impacts

Where is the government? • More radical measures under discussion, in media and within government • Douglas Alexander IPPR speech • Focus on technical measures to improve vehicle fuel efficiency – target of 100 g/km • Something on behaviour change as well • A hotch potch approach – no framework illustrating progress towards targets • Need to be able to evaluate alternative measures

Public attitudes • Jillian Anable research (for DfT) • Link is weak between awareness of climate change and travel behaviour implications • Similar to IPPR report on road pricing • Travel behaviour change more successful if targeted at community level • London Mayor to introduce higher congestion charge (£25?) for high emissions cars (225+) • LB Richmond similar:onstreet park permits

Reducing Carbon Emissions: changing travel behaviour • Personal carbon allowances and trading • System of personal carbon allowances for every adult – in units • Carbon units are ‘spent’ every time fuel for a vehicle is purchased, public transport is used and a flight is purchased - and a household energy bill is paid • Unused carbon units sold on a simple universal market (through bank or post office) and those needing more units buy them

Reducing Carbon Emissions: changing travel behaviour • Personal carbon allowances and trading • Complex to comprehend and accept, though straightforward to operate through analogues of today’s cash and card payment systems • In my view the fairest and most effective way to incentivise low carbon travel behaviour • Research at Leeds University suggests more effective at changing behaviour and much more acceptable than fuel tax increases

Conclusions so far • UK committed to ambitious programme of carbon emissions reduction • Government not yet allocated targets > sectors • Transport energy efficiency improvements welcome and necessary, but not sufficient • Transport behaviour change essential element: smarter travel, taxation for surface and aviation, will involve major lifestyle changes • Aviation still the elephant in the room…. • Personal carbon allowances and trading may be the only ‘fair’ way to reach the ambitious targets • Role for transport planners?

Transport Planning Society Transport and Climate Change – facing the carbon emissions challenge David Quarmby CBE 25 Apr