Climate Change and India: Presentation to India-EU Round Table

1. Climate Change and India: Presentation to India-EU Round Table Prodipto Ghosh, Ph.D Distinguished Fellow The Energy & Resources Institute 19 September 2007

2. I. What is anthropogenic climate change? • Suite of gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, etc,) emitted from various economic activities: Fossil fuel use, wet paddy cultivation, cattle raising, fertilizer use, etc. • Growing (but not mature) forests absorb (“sequester”) CO2, the major GHG • Increasing concentrations of these gases in the atmosphere have same effect as a greenhouse, hence “Greenhouse gases” (GHGs). The resulting increase in temperature may impact many climate parameters

3. Source: The World Bank. World average of per capita CO2 is 4.3 tons

4. Projections of Future Changes in Climate Across all scenarios, average warming is 0.2°C per decade Committed warming averages 0.1°C per decade for next two decades

5. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, 1992 • The UNFCCC set forth certain principles for addressing climate change by a global effort, in particular, that of “common but differentiated responsibilities” of countries; that development is the foremost concern of developing countries, etc. • It also gave a “soft target” for industrialized countries (Annex I Parties) to return to 1990 levels of GHG emissions by 2000 • All major countries, inc. US, EU, India, China, have ratified the Convention

6. Kyoto Protocol, 1997: • Legally binding Protocol setting out: • Targets for GHG reductions by individual industrialized countries during “first commitment period”, 2008-2012, totaling 5.2% below their aggregate 1990 emissions; actual percentages vary by Party • 3 “cooperative implementation mechanisms” setting up a global market in carbon credits: Clean Development Mechanism, applicable to developing countries, operational since 2000 • US, Australia have not ratified; EU, China, India, Brazil are Parties (Total 161 Parties)

7. II. Climate Change Impacts, Mitigation, and Adaptation • Difference between natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change • Summary of IPCC 4th Assessment Report on Impacts • Monitored changes in India’s key climate parameters • India’s energy policies and their GHG effect • India’s response to natural variability • Suggested way forward

8. Likely Impacts of Climate Change

9. Difference between natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change

10. Variation of all-India surface air temperatures Trends in annual mean, maximum and minimum temperatures and diurnal temperature range during the 20th century.

11. All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (1871-2003) Source: IITM homogeneous monthly rainfall data base

12. Current knowledge about future impacts: ASIA • Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding, rock avalanches from destabilized slopes, and affect water resources within the next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede. • Freshwater availability in Central, South, East and Southeast Asia particularly in large river basins is projected to decrease due to climate change which, along with population growth and increasing demand arising from higher standards of living, could adversely affect more than a billion people by the 2050s. • Coastal areas, especially heavily-populated mega-delta regions in South, East and Southeast Asia, will be at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea and in some mega-deltas flooding from the rivers.

13. Current knowledge about future impacts: ASIA • Climate change is projected to impinge on sustainable development of most developing countries of Asia as it compounds the pressures on natural resources and the environment associated with rapid urbanisation, industrialisation, and economic development. • It is projected that crop yields could increase up to 20% in East and Southeast Asia while it could decrease up to 30% in Central and South Asia by the mid-21st century. Taken together and considering the influence of rapid population growth and urbanization, the risk of hunger is projected to remain very high in several developing countries. • Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise in East, South and Southeast Asia due to projected changes in hydrological cycle associated with global warming. Increases in coastal water temperature would exacerbate the abundance and/or toxicity of cholera in South Asia.

14. Current knowledge about responding to climate change • Some adaptation is occurring now, to observed and projected future climate change, but on a very limited basis. • Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions. • A wide array of adaptation options is available, but more extensive adaptation than is currently occurring is required to reduce vulnerability to future climate change. There are barriers, limits and costs, but these are not fully understood. • Vulnerability to climate change can be exacerbated by the presence of other stresses, esp. poverty • Future vulnerability depends not only on climate change but also on development pathway.

15. Current knowledge about responding to climate change • Impacts of climate change will vary regionally but, they are very likely to impose net annual costs which will increase over time as global temperatures increase • While there has been significant improvement in scientific understanding of climate change in the past 20 years, there remains considerable uncertainty about the nature, timing, spatial distribution, and severity of particular impacts. In particular, none of the global climate models can be validated with respect to changes in rainfall over the Indian land-mass • Systematic observation and research needs

16. III. Myths about India and Climate Change • Myth 1: India is an energy profligate • Myth 2: India does not take climate impacts seriously • Myth 3: India’s development path is unsustainable • Myth 4: Abatement of GHG emissions is low-cost

17. Response to Myth 1: India’s current energy policies and their outcomes (partial list): • Improving energy efficiency • Promoting hydro and renewable energy • Power sector reforms • Promotion of clean coal technologies • Energy and infrastructure development • Coal washing • Cleaner and lesser carbon intensive fuel for transport • Environmental quality management (EIA appraisal for significant development projects)

18. India’s Energy Policies: Scenarios simulated by MARKAL (2001-2036) • Baseline: Base year 2001 GDP growth rate 8% Official demographic projections IPCC emissions factors 8% social discount rate • Scenarios: • S1: Cleaner fuels for power generation • S2: Electricity for all by 2012 decentralized renewable options efficient cook stoves • S3: 20% increase in share of public road transport Greater use of CNG in buses, taxis, 3-W vehicles • S4: S1+S2+S3 • S5: Baseline with average annual GDP growth rate 6.7%

19. Source: TERI, 2006

20. India’s actual carbon intensity performance Source: MoEF, 2007

21. Decreasing Energy Intensity Behind India’s Sustainable Development Source: Plg. Comm. 2006

22. Indian industry and energy efficiency • Major energy using sectors – steel cement, aluminum, etc. have become more energy efficient over the past 20 years • The following graphs depict changes in average energy intensities; incremental changes are much sharper. • The newer plants are among the most energy efficient globally

23. Source: BEE, 2007

24. Source: BEE, 2007

25. Source: BEE, 2007

26. Response to Myth 2: India’s actions on climate variability: • The most effective response strategy for anthropogenic climate change is poverty alleviation • Specific areas of concern include: - Agriculture - Water resources - Health and sanitation - Coastal Zones - Forests - Extreme weather events

27. 7 Major Components of Adaptation • Crop improvement & research (22) • Drought proofing & flood control (19) • Health improvement and prevention of disease (19) • Risk financing (6) • Disaster management (6) • Forest conservation (12) • Poverty alleviation and livelihood preservation (30) (Figures in brackets indicate number of Schemes identified under each category)

28. Percentage of Adaptation Expenditure to Total Fiscal Expenditure and GDP Source: MoEF, 2007

29. Relative expenditures on major Adaptation schemes by thematic area Source: MoEF, 2007

30. IV. Response to Myth 3: Sustainability of Production and Consumption Patterns • Relevance • Select Indicators: - Energy inputs per unit of output energy delivered through food - Waste generation and recycling - Energy & emissions per unit of passenger transportation movement

31. Energy inputs per unit of output energy delivered through food The energy inputs and resultant emissions in the cycle of growing the food, transporting, processing, packaging and preserving it till it reaches the table vary significantly between India, China, and developed countries. This reflects not poverty, but lifestyle choices.

32. Source: TERI analysis (various data sources)

33. Waste generation and recycling Consumption patterns also have a direct impact on the wastes that a society generates. In developed societies not only is there higher waste generation but also relatively lower recycling. Can we move to a lifestyle that entails lower packaging and higher recycling and hence lower usage of plastics, glass and paper? What may it imply for GHG emissions?

34. Municipal solid waste Average rate of recycling (%) (excl. re-use) GHG emissions from waste (gm/’000$GDPppp) Source: TERI Analysis, based on National Communications of different countries

35. Energy & emissions per unit of transportation movement Sustainable mobility: shift from personalized modes of transportation to public modes of transportation, greater reliance on clean fuels and cleaner technologies, a shift towards IT based societies have major implications for GHG emissions.

36. Estimated CO2 emissions from passenger transport (gm/passenger-km) Source: TERI Analysis, various data sources

37. Response to Myth 4: MARKAL model estimates of costs of GHG abatement Cumulative incremental investment requirements The total incremental cost for reduction of GHG in India by 9.7% from baseline in 2036 is $ 2.53 Trillion!

38. Cumulative incremental investment requirements and GDP of different countries in 2004 GDP at 2000 prices Cumulative incremental investment requirements: Comparison with 2004 GDP levels

39. Change in discounted energy system cost (2001-36)… Reduction of GHG emissions by 9.7% from baseline by 2036 would involve economic loss of $ 180 Billion

40. India’s Broad Approach to International negotiations of a global climate change regime • India is not a significant contributor to climate change in the past, at present, or likely to be in the near future, as revealed by actual empirical data, and modeling results on future carbon intensities • However, India is among the worst sufferers of climate change caused by industrialized countries! • India has taken a number of policies and measures to address both mitigation and adaptation and is preparing a national action plan on climate change

41. India’s broad approach… • India can only consider international commitments to control GHG emissions on the basis of global convergence to equal per capita rights, otherwise our poverty alleviation efforts will be severely affected, and the world will be permanently divided into “the rich man in his castle, the poor man at his gate”! • Technology and financial transfers for addressing climate change, both GHG abatement and adaptation to impacts must be ensured under any future international climate change regime.

42. Thank You for Your Attention!