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Human Population

Human Population. When is enough enough?. Historical Human Populations. Graph – page 2 Now in J-curve -exponential growth Have we exceeded carrying capacity? What is the carrying capacity of the earth? Will we continue and experience catastrophic dieback?. Critical Questions?.

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Human Population

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  1. Human Population When is enough enough?

  2. Historical Human Populations • Graph – page 2 • Now in J-curve -exponential growth • Have we exceeded carrying capacity? • What is the carrying capacity of the earth? • Will we continue and experience catastrophic dieback?

  3. Critical Questions? • Is there a problem? • If yes, how significant as contrasted to other environmental and social problems? • If yes, how do we respond? • Desire for children - pronatalist & birth reduction pressures • Access to family planning

  4. Human Demography • Crude Birthrate (per 1000) • Total fertility rate – how does this relate to birthrate? • Replacement level of fertility : 2.1 in developed countries • Does reaching RLF mean ZPG – No. Why? (page 257) • Crude deathrate and birthrate (per 1000 per year) • Annual rate of population change(ARPC)= (BR - DR) /10 • Expressed as a percent!! • Excludes migration • Doubling time in years = 70 years/ARPC as a %

  5. Percentage Distribution (U.N. 98)

  6. Population Demographic Transition

  7. Stages of Demo Transition (269) • Preindustrial Society • Transitional • High birthrates • Death rates falling • Often rapid growth for 1-2 generations • Industrial – low growth rate – birth rates still exceed death rates • Postindustrial – zero to negative growth rates

  8. Demographic Transition Is this the Answer? • What is needed for this to occur? • How long is the middle or second stage? • Birthrates may increase in early and middle stages- RAPID GROWTH • Can we wait for last stages of transition? Or will (or is) carrying capacity be exceeded? • Are developing in “demographic trap” - never moving to final phases of transition?

  9. Three Viewpoints of Future • Optimistic • Pessimistic • Social Justice

  10. Optimistic View • World population will stabilize sometime in next century • Some countries success stories • Factors that support this viewpoint • Developed countries and demographic transition

  11. Pessimistic View Countries will never complete transition • Have, or will, developing countries fall into “demographic trap” (269) • Factors (269) • Therefore: • Must use bold policies and family planning • Neo-Malthusians: “offer” or :impose” birth control

  12. Social Justice • Fair share of earth’s resources and economic benefits only way to complete transition • Current situations in developing countries: due to effects of colonialism • Neo-Marxists:Eliminate human oppression and poverty-social justice will result in decreased population growth

  13. Population Growth: Opposing Factors affecting TFR and Birth Rates (259) • Pronatalist pressures -parental desire for children • May have more impact on population growth than availability to contraceptives • Religious and cultural values • Average age of marriage • Desire for male children • Infant mortality • Economic advantages/disadvantages of children • Education and socioeconomic status of women

  14. How far should a government go? • China – discuss their policies • Contrast to Thailand, India, and Japan • Different viewpoints • Oppose any population growth • Oppose rapid population growth • No regulation of population growth – having children is basic right that should not be influenced or regulated by governments.

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