Influence of Candidates and Party Leaders

1. Influence of Candidates and Party Leaders

2. Main Theme: Voter Choice • Candidate centred election system (US and France) • Parliamentary, ‘Party Based’ System (UK and Australia) • What is the impact of a leader’s particular characteristics upon voter choice in the two systems? • Are Leader’s “Electoral Forces” in their own right?

3. The Direct Effects Definition: “The Influence a leader or candidate exerts on voters by virtue of who he or she is, how he or she appears to be and how he or she publicly comports him or herself (King,2000).” Direct effects emanate from who the leader Is. There are Indirect effects too. The candidate wins votes through his/her actions, either through changing party ideology or modernizing it. Not so clearly linked with voter choice (will be adressed towards the end)

4. Determined Tough Caring Competent Decisive Listens to reason Effective Shrewd Likeable as a person Sticks to principles Which four are the most valued? Personal Attributes (What attributes can be used to described who the leader is)

5. Which attributes count • Voters are 10% more likely to vote for a candidate deemed to be an effective leader than one who is not (Bean and Mughan 1989) • Effectiveness • Listening to reason • Caring • Stick to principles (quite far behind) They found that these characteristics are almost exactly the same in Australia and Britain.

6. Opposite View But are leaders selected according to their strengths or lack of weaknesses? Anthony King undermines their importance by arguing it is leaders with the fewest number of flaws who are nominated. They are selected, not to win elections, but not to lose them. Is this a valid argument ? Are leaders therefore largely the same in character.

7. Hillary V Barack • Do gender and race play a role. • Empirical Evidence: Women are naturally more biased towards women. Women are seen to be compassionate. E.g. Hillary clip • Race. (I have found a journal but I am yet to go through it) previous class, black candidate seemed most attractive.

8. Reasons why it could make a difference • Extra media coverage. Sensational news (history making) • Is it a characteristic that really gives an edge that overwhelms other issues. It is clearly separated from issues (My question ) Looking at the media • Mcain: Is his candidacy based more on ideology or his personal characteristics. (I would say yes) • Is the battle as ideological within the democratic party. (I would say no)

9. How Salient are Leaders and Candidates? Political leaders are one of several types of criteria that inform voter choice • Ideology • Policy (based on issues arising at particular elections) • The state of the economy • Partisanship • The particular agenda that has been set. • Parliamentary system in Britain, the politician being voted for is connected to the leader only via the party. Local factors inform decision unlike presidential systems.

10. Developments in British Politics • Weakening of Class Identification • Lower level of partisanship • Greater Media attention focusing on party leaders. This is seen to have led to the ‘Presidentialization’ of general elections.

11. Consequences • Short term issues are more significant • With fewer partisans, parties need broader strategies to attract voters, this is evoked through leaders. • Leaders are physical beings while policy is an abstraction. Media makes this distinction clearer, favouring the leader.

12. Media-Trivializes democracy. Geoffrey Barker: “We are now firmly in the age of polished, packaged politics; image is on a par with intellect; presentation matters as much or more than ideas….The contestants…trade simplified more, if not simplistic slogans that will indicate at only the most generalized level the values and priorities on which they differ…The tailor, hairdresser and colour consultant will become important political advisors.” )Melbourne Age 1984) Debate: Is he correct?

13. Hypothesis – Yes! Leaders matter Butler and Stokes 1974 – Any political object has to pass three criteria to draw the voters attention and mobilization. • There has to be an awareness of the subject • There has to be some strength of feeling about the object in question “Genuine Attitude” • It has to be identified with a political party Leaders are expected to fulfil all three criteria and therefore be at the forefront of the voters selection making. In Presidential elections the third category is no longer crucial.

14. No they don’t (King 2000) based on King’s the assumption that all Leaders are roughly the same in personality and appearance it is an area of neutrality, naturally divisive issues that have to be skewed in a particular direction determine election outcomes. Persuasive argument, even parties with candidates of immense personality like Winston Churchill because policy played a more important part in the election.

15. Difficulties with Polls • Can we tell whether the public, when they say they support a leader they subconciously make that statement because they are in fact naturally inclined to vote for the leader’s party.