CAPMAS

1. EGYPT Central egency for public mobilization and statistics CAPMAS www.capmas.gov.eg

2. CAPMAS EGYPT CENSUS EVALUATION POST-ENUMERATION SURVEY

3. CAPMAS Purpose of Census Evaluation Measure accuracy (quality) of census data Coverage error – census omission and duplication of households and persons Content error – nonresponse, response errors, coding errors, etc.

4. CAPMAS Objectives of Post-Enumeration Survey Measure both census coverage and content errors. PES evaluation results useful for improving future census operation. PES results assist census data users in understanding relative magnitude of error. PES estimates may be used for adjusting the census population figures and population projections

5. CAPMAS PES Methodology Independent enumeration of household and population in sample of areas. - De jure or de facto enumeration, depending on type of census enumeration. Two-Way matching of PES and census from for sample areas.

6. CAPMAS PES Methodology (continued) Reconciliation visit following matching. Dual-system estimation methodology - Based on two independent sources of population data – census and PES.

7. Important to allow sufficient time to ensure all census materials are returned from field - To ensure independence between census and PES enumeration CAPMAS Timing of PES Ideal to conduct PES about 2 to 4 weeks following the census, to avoid much movement of population and recall error

8. CAPMAS Movement of Population between Census and PES Non-movers – persons in same household at time of census and PES In-movers – persons who moved into a household between the time of the census and the PES Out-movers – persons who move out of a household between the census and the PES

9. CAPMAS Enumeration Procedures for Moving Population Procedure A – identifies composition of household at time of census - Enumeration of non-movers and out-movers - Advantage – out-movers easier to match - Disadvantage – more difficult to obtain information for out-movers

10. CAPMAS Enumeration Procedures for Moving Population (Continued) Procedure B – identifies all current household members at time of PES - Enumeration of non-movers and in-movers - Advantage – in-movers easier to match - Disadvantage – more difficult to match in-movers to census records at previous residence in different area

11. CAPMAS Enumeration Procedures for Moving Population (Continued) Procedure C – combination of Procedures A and B - Enumeration of non-movers, in-movers and out-movers - Match non-movers and out-movers to obtain match rate for movers - Count number of in-movers - Apply match rate for out-movers to number of in-movers - Advantage – out-movers easier to match, in-movers easier to identify; less bias than Procedure A, less cost than Procedure B - Procedure C used for Egypt PES

12. CAPMAS Defining Objectives for PES Coverage error evaluation - Establish geographic domains, age groups for analysis - Example: geographic domains for Egypt PES Cairo, other large cities (Alexandria, Port-Said, Suez), region (Upper and Lower Egypt) by other urban, rural Content error measurement - Identify items to be evaluated for content error: most important characteristics subject to response error - Generally avoid items which require detailed coding such as industry and occupation

13. CAPMAS PES Questionnaire Design Select items from census from required for matching household and persons - Household identification, including address - Person characteristics – name, sex, age, relationship to head of household, marital status Information to establish moving status following census - Whether person was in household at time of census Items included for content error analysis Shaded areas in PES questionnaire to enter census responses for matched persons

14. CAPMAS Sample Design for PES Stratified area sample Sampling frame – list of census enumeration areas (EAs) or segments P-sample – households enumerated in PES within sample segments E-sample – households enumerated by census within same sample segments

15. CAPMAS Sample Design for PES (continued) Stratification – geographic domains of analysis - Cairo, other large cities (Alexandria, Port-Said, Suez), region (Upper and Lower Egypt) by other urban, rural - Geographic ordering of EAs with systematic provides implicit stratification Sample size and allocation - Depends on precision requirements for domains of analysis - Minimum number of sample segments for each domain of analysis – ideally, 30 sample segments

16. CAPMAS Egypt has done (PES) Twiss The first : for the 1968 population census which carried out by (PSRC) population studies and research center at CAPMAS The second : for the 2006 population census which carried out by cabinet (information and decision support center (IDSC)) The two (PES) done by the same concepts, procedures, sample design

17. CAPMAS Design The design has six domains. The (PSUs) primary sampling units – shiakh has in urban area, villages in rural area. each sample PSU divided into segments each regiment size has 100 households. all households enumerated within sample segments.

18. CAPMAS Matching Operation Two- way matching between household and person records in P-sample (PES) and E-sample (census) Matching procedures should be tested and described very clearly in matching manual. Matching rules should be designed to minimize net matching error rate.

19. CAPMAS Reconciliation Visit Follow up on persons enumerated in the census but not the PES, to determine whether they were correctly enumerated. Verify cases of possible matches. Determine final match status.

20. CAPMAS Dual System Estimation Based on assumption of independence between census and PES. Depends on two-way matching between census and PES. Includes estimate of population missing from both census and PES.

21. CAPMAS Dual System Estimation Model

22. Nt = ــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ = ــــــــــــــــ Nc x Np Nc RM M RM = ـــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ = match rate M NP 1 - RM = census omission rate CAPMAS Dual System Estimate of Total population

23. www.capmas.gov.eg