Regional Climate Information Needs for Impacts and Adaptation Work: Experiences from Asia

1. Image size: 7,94 cm x 25,4 cm Regional Climate Information Needs for Impacts and Adaptation Work: Experiences from Asia G Srinivasan Regional Integrated Multi-hazard Early warning System WCRP Workshop on Regional Climate: Facilitating the production of climate information and its use in impact and adaptation work, 14-16 June 2010

2. RIMES • (RIMES) was formally established on 30 April 2009, with the signing (at Male) of an international cooperation agreement by Cambodia, Comoros, Lao PDR, Maldives, Bangladesh, Philippines and Seychelles • Registered as Regional Organization with UN (14th September 2009) • Twenty-one (21) other countries are in various stages of consideration and approval for signing the cooperation agreement • RIMES aims to provide regional early warning services, and build capacity of its Member States in the early warning of tsunami and hydro-meteorological hazards.

3. Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities Adaptation – the definition • Adjustment in natural or human systems • in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, • which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities Source: ISDR, 2006

4. Requirements for climate information • The climate information requirements are different at various levels of action • At the national level, requirements vary from ministry to ministry even if they all contribute to a common focus area (e.g. food production under the umbrella of poverty reduction) • Within the national and provincial agencies, information requirements are guided by the duration of planning horizon, and vary from the Organizational/Ministerial level to implementation level. • Communities and individual requirements - differ with livelihoods and circumstances

5. Global mean warming projected for three time-slabs relative to 1980-99 from the IPCC multi-model ensemble mean • (modified from Wilby et al., 2009)

6. Commonly Sought information at sites • Are the heavy rainfall events on the increase? • Is there a shift in the onset of rainy season? • Are dry-spells going to be longer ? • Will the check-dams fill up this season? • Increase the level of the embankments or build new embankments? • Prepare for floods during every rainy season? • Install landside warning system with community participation?

7. ENSO and extreme events in Indonesia ENSO has a strong link with rainfall over most locations, therefore information on future behavior of ENSO on different time-scales and its regional manifestation is important for Asia

8. Indonesia Example – Agriculture Sector • West Java receives high level of rainfall and allows double (sometimes even triple) paddy cropping. • In contrast, East Java’s climate is drier and is more suitable only for crops that have lower water requirement than paddy, such as maize. • During ENSO episodes, both East and West Java are affected adversely, and the impacts manifest via lower than normal rainfall, delayed rainfall onset, or early termination of rains. • Adaptation projects in West Java – when should planning for sustained drier than normal conditions start? Current strategy is better use of seasonal forecasts

9. In many instances Climate Information requirement for adaptation projects at community level are seasonal outlooks

10. Coastal Vulnerability and Mountainous regions Future frequency and intensity of tropical cyclonic storms Information on rates of Sea-level rise Glacial Lake Outbursts related flooding

11. Temperature Increase during 2071-2100 for A2 and B2 Scenarios using downscaled results from PRECIS forced with ECHAM

12. 1990-2010 2010 -41 2041 - 71 Orange – 10-25%; Red – 25 – 50% Ecuador, collaboration with CIIFEN • Simulations from only one model available • No validation/evaluation of model performance, hence no idea of uncertainty • Insufficient observational data to undertake this exercise • ENSO changes not captured adequately in global models – hence local rainfall variability estimates uncertain

13. Gaps and issues to be addressed

14. Lack of clear assessment of user requirements • The information requirements of users across different sectors are not understood with any clarity now. • An assessment of the various information requirements across sectors is a must for generation of suitable information as different users would require climate information differing in their timescales as well as their resolutions

15. Climate information to cater to users’ needs • This level of customization for users is not in place currently. • There is a temporal mismatch between scenarios and the budget and planning considerations of users and decision makers. • Location specificity – this is being taken care of by regional models, but there is still need to improve on reliability (error bounds) at the spatial and temporal scales required.

16. Interpretation and translation of climate information for users • The translation of climate information into thresholds for incorporation by sectors is lacking – this means understanding decision environments and evolving thresholds that are location and sector specific • Climate change information should be interpreted and translated in terms of sector-specific thresholds that are jointly determined by both the climate community and sectoral users (e.g. agriculture, water management) for it to be useful to policymakers and to those who are involved in adaptation planning and implementation of options.

17. Global, Regional Model Products Regional Products Probabilistic location specific hydro-met & geo information Risk Thresholds Impact Outlooks Hazard Derivatives Risk Management tools RIMES/ADPC, Natl. DRR Agencies, Communities ECMWF, NCEP, CMA, UKMO Managing climate risks by connecting science, institutions, and society Need for linked action – regional modeling projects that link with impact assessment/adaptation actions

18. National level State/Provincial level District level Communities and Individuals Current Climate Variability Future Climate Change Impacts/Adaptation Seasonal 5 – 10 yrs Weather scale < 5 yrs 20 – 30 yrs Climate information requirement for adaptation actions

19. Climate Risks, Disaster Risk and threats of climate change • In the context of Southeast Asia, and in most tropical climates for that matter, distinguishing between short-term (DRR/CRM) and long-term (adaptation) is difficult because at present, there is no widely accepted methodology for disassociating the impacts of climate change from “normal” climate variability in the short to medium term. • the projected impacts of climate change on agriculture tend to be amplifications (sometimes reduction) of the substantial challenges that climate variability already imposes (Hansen, et al 2007). • The same observation applies to other natural resource-base livelihoods as well.

20. Issue of proving “Additionality” • Climate change adaptation planning processes tend to be based on the assumption that it is possible to isolate climate change-induced risk pattern vis-à-vis natural climate variability • Anthropogenic climate change impose additional burden that makes the achievement of development gains more difficult, additional investments/ development aid are necessary. • Regional modeling to contribute to clearly assess and resolve this issue

21. Conclusions Time-scales of two to three decades into future are important Improving reliability and quantifying uncertainties at regional scales Information requirements are specific – creating institutional linkages with modeling institutions and institutions implementing adaptation projects Follow an integrated approach for managing risks from current climate variability and future climate change

22. …thank you