Research needs: vulnerability, impacts, adaptation and mitigation

1. Research needs: vulnerability, impacts, adaptation and mitigation Jean Palutikof Technical Support Unit, IPCC Working Group II Hadley Centre, UK Met Office

2. Research needs from the WGII TAR SPM • Quantitative assessments, with emphasis on extremes, range of climate variation • Thresholds at which strongly discontinuous responses triggered • Understanding dynamic responses of ecosystems to multiple stresses at a range of scales • Adaptation: estimation of effectiveness and costs of options, opportunities, obstacles, by region, nation, population • Assessment of impacts in multiple metrics, with consistent treatment of uncertainties, taking into account stabilization and other policy scenarios • Tools: integrated assessment, risk assessment • Opportunities to include scientific information in decision making • Improvement of systems and methods for long-term monitoring

3. How is WGII AR4 0rganized? • Observed changes (1) • New assessment methodologies (2) • Sectoral chapters (3, 4, 5, 7, 8) • Regional chapters • Location (9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14) • Typology (6, 15, 16) • Synthesising chapters • Adaptation (17) • Adaptation and mitigation (18) • Key vulnerabilities and risks (19) • Climate change and sustainable development (20)

4. Cross-cutting themes • Important in defining research needs and incorporating them into the assessment • Uncertainties (Maynooth, May 2004) • Article 2 and key vulnerabilities (Buenos Aires, May 2004) • Adaptation & mitigation (Amsterdam, September 2004) • Regional integration (Llubljana, September 2004)

5. 1. Quantitative assessment, extremes • This is a message to be taken into account throughout the assessment • Extremes • May lie beyond current experience and hence the capacity of impact models • Need to explore literature on present-day responses to extremes and their management: flood studies, windstorm impact, heat stress • Abrupt climate change (Chapter 2). The literature on the impacts of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation • Change in range of climate variation

6. Change in climate variation: generally the emphasis until now has been on changes in the mean climate. We need to understand the impacts of changes in climate variability at a range of scales: decadal, inter-annual, seasonal, daily, and taking into account large-scale atmospheric regimes such as ENSO and the NAO.

7. 2. Thresholds • Strongly discontinuous responses to projected climate change Change in related response rate Step change in response variable Climate change Ecosystems: species extinctions Health: arrival of malaria Time

8. 3. Dynamic ecosystem response to multiple stresses • Will be addressed primarily in Chapter 4, Ecosystems and their Services • CLAs: Fischlin and Midgley • But should also be taken into account in the regional suite of chapters • Stresses will include climate, direct effects of CO2, pollutants

9. 4. Adaptation • CLAs Adger, Agrawala, Mirza • Topics: • Methods and concepts • Assessment of current adaptation practices • Assessment of adaptation capacity • Enhancing adaptation: opportunities, transfer of technologies, constraints, adaptive learning • Important role for practitioners • WGII also has a chapter on Adaptation & Mitigation (CLAs Huq, Klein) • Mitigation strategies (top-down) and adaptation (bottom-up) strategies; mixes, synergies • Issues of scale and timing

10. 5. Impacts: metrics, consistent treatment of uncertainties These are issues threading throughout the WGII Assessment, and concern not only Impacts but Chapters 17 and 18 also. Metrics: If we seek for a more quantitative assessment • How do we measure impacts, numeraires for valuing impacts. In monetary, non-monetary terms? Issues of equity, justice, rights-based frameworks. • How do we achieve it in sectors such as ecosystems? Uncertainties: • The need for precision in language – this is not new to the AR4 but remains a vital issue, related to credibility. What is meant by likely, very likely, probable etc. • The need to state confidence/uncertainty, using standard errors, confidence limits.

11. Tools: integrated assessment, risk assessment; to investigate: • Natural/human system interactions • Consequences of policy decisions • Chapter 2, New assessment methodologies, CLAs Carter (Finland), Lu (UK/China), Jones (Australia) • Assessment of opportunities to include scientific information in decision making • Improvement of systems and methods for long-term monitoring • Recommendations likely to emerge from Chapter 1 (CLAs: Casassa (Chile), Rosenzweig (USA))

12. Role of the cross-cutting themes

13. Key vulnerabilities (Article 2) • Chapter 19 (Patwardhan, Schneider, Semenov) • Concepts and methods, taking into account the broad framework of past IPCC activities, Millenium Ecosystem Assessment, WEHAB framework developed at World Summit on Sustainable Development • Identification and assessment of key vulnerabilities • Role of adaptation in reducing vulnerabilities • Climate scenarios likely to lead to the exceedance of thresholds, and their associated probabilities • Role of mitigation in achieving stabilization and avoiding/delaying key vulnerabilities

14. Regional Integration • Plan to develop regional case studies which will thread as a series of chapter boxes throughout the WGII assessment • Starting point: • Information on regional climate changes/SLR from WGI • Information on technological, economic, social futures from WGIII • End point – feeding into and informing Chapter 20 (Climate change and sustainability) • For example: • Southern Africa , drought, causes, role of seasonal forecasting • Western Europe, role of NAO, abrupt climate change

15. The writing process:where we stand • Author list is nearly complete but reveals itself to be a strongly asymptotic process • 47 Co-ordinating Lead Authors • 134 Lead Authors • 40 Review Editors • First Lead Author meeting is to be held September 20 -23 204 in Vienna