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March 18, 2013. ISD 199 Budget 2013-2014. Four Planning Scenarios. Enrollment is stable – kindergarten staffing will be reduced until full enrollment is verified, all other elementary student enrollment cast forward
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March 18, 2013 ISD 199 Budget 2013-2014
Four Planning Scenarios Enrollment is stable – kindergarten staffing will be reduced until full enrollment is verified, all other elementary student enrollment cast forward Gross district expenditures related to salaries and benefits are projected to be held at 3.0% Other district expenditures are projected to increase by 2.0%
Scenario 1 Spending variance is -$588,824 Foundation aid increases by 1.0% in 2013 ($52.00) Other categorical aid adjustments do not have a negative impact on ISD 199
Scenario 2 Spending variance is -$854,585 Foundation aid does not increase (0.0%) Other categorical aid adjustments do not have a negative impact on ISD 199
Scenario 3 Spending variance is -$1,020,085 Foundation aid does not increase (0.0%) Other categorical aid adjustments do not have a negative impact on ISD 199 Sequestration results in a decrease in federal revenue of $165,000
Scenario 4 Spending variance is -$754,324 Foundation aid increases by 1.0% in 2013 ($52.00) Other categorical aid adjustments do not have a negative impact on ISD 199 Sequestration results in a decrease in federal revenue of $165,000
Stable Enrollment Enrollment Trends
Elementary Schools 2007-2008 1.9% 2008-2009 0.6% 2009-2010 0.7% 2010-2011 -1.8% 2011-2012 0.2% Change from September 15 to end of each year
Inver Grove Heights Middle School 2007-2008 -0.7% 2008-2009 0.9% 2009-2010 -0.6% 2010-2011 -1.2% 2011-2012 -1.3% Change from September 15 to end of each year
Simley High School 2007-2008 -8.1% 2008-2009 -3.6% 2009-2010 -2.1% 2010-2011 -5.1% 2011-2012 -4.8% Change from September 15 to end of each year
Projecting Staffing for Enrollment Elementary Optimal Class Sizes Kindergarten – 26 Grade 1 – 27 Grade 2 – 28 Grade 3 – 30 Grade 4 – 30 Grade 5 – 30 Elementary Actual Class size average 2012-2013 Kindergarten – 22.31 Grade 1 - 25.73 (24-28) Grade 2 – 26.32 (23-28)* Grade 3 – 26.17 (24-28) Grade 4 – 27.52 (26-29)* Grade 5 – 28.10 (25-30)
Projecting Staffing for Enrollment IGHMS Social Studies (as example) 2012-2013 projected section sizes ranged from 31.7 to 31.8 based on winter enrollments IGHMS Social Studies (as example) 2012-2013 actual section sizes range from 28 to 36 Average section size is 30.3
Projecting Staffing for Enrollment IGHMS Math (as example) 2012-2013 projected section sizes ranged from 28.6 to 30 based on winter enrollments IGHMS Math (as example) 2012-2013 actual section sizes range from 27 to 32 Average section size is 28.1
Projecting Staffing for Enrollment Simley Art (as example) 2012-2013 projected section sizes ranged from 16 to 63.6 based on course enrollments Simley Art (as example) 2012-2013 actual section sizes range from 14 to 31.7 Average section size is 26.2
Projecting Staffing for Enrollment Simley Spanish (as example) 2012-2013 projected section sizes ranged from 25 to 38.3 based on winter pre-registration course enrollments Simley Spanish (as example) 2012-2013 actual section sizes range from 15 to 32.4 Average section size is 28.7
Projecting Staffing for Enrollment Simley Math (as example) 2012-2013 projected section sizes ranged from 21 to 35 based on winter pre-registration course enrollments Simley Math (as example) 2012-2013 actual section sizes range from 20 to 34 Average section size is 26
Projecting Staffing for Enrollment Simley Social Studies (as example) 2012-2013 projected section sizes ranged from 14 to 39 based on winter pre-registration course enrollments Simley Social Studies (as example) 2012-2013 actual section sizes range from 7 to 35 Average section size is 28.2
Special Education Program Audits Program Costs Program Staffing
Special Education Program Audits Overrepresentation of African American and Latino students in special education: example - 38% of LD students are Latino Committees working to address assessments MDE working with district to assist in district identification and placement procedures District in 3rd year of RtI in many buildings – special education population should decline
Special Education Costs • Inver Grove Heights Cross Subsidy for Special Education – previous 5 years • 2006-2007 $3,366,030 • 2007-2008 $1,620,681 (ARRA) • 2008-2009 $3,162,603 • 2009-2010 $2,820,867 • 2010-2011 $3,080,513
Special Education Staffing • December counts percentage of special education students • 2008 – 15.4% • 2009 – 14.3% • 2010 - 14.4% • 2011 – 14.29% • 2012 – 14.1%
Title Programs The impact of sequestration is unknown Revenue and Expenditures must balance Budget requirements in federal regulations Salem Hills and Hilltop Elementary Schools are Title 1 schools
2013-2014 Proposed Budget Reductions Based on the following findings: • Scenario 4 is the most likely scenario • The secondary class sizes should not be smaller than the elementary class sizes in the majority of offerings • The secondary program has the greatest loss of students across time • The high school has been the least impacted by budget reductions in the last ten years
The district-wide elementary enrollment process has improved the process of elementary staffing Special education has continued to grow in staff and costs as compared to the general fund The impacts of sequestration are unknown at this time Salem Hills and Hilltop are Title 1 schools
Salem Hills has the highest rate of student mobility The district has gaps in achievement that while closing – remain and must be dealt with in order to sustain funding Populations are not equitably represented in programs throughout the district The demographics of the district will continue to change A 1% increase in foundation aid is not sufficient to fund the district without continuous budget reductions of program and the associated people In the absence of a sufficient, predictable and continuous funding stream, the district will need to make a structural change to reduce deficits in coming years.
Recommendations • Scenario 4 • Difference in Retiree Replacements: $289,000 • Elementary Reductions • $754,324 • $465,324
ELEMENTARYREDUCTIONS Cast forward current elementary enrollments -2.0 FTE elementary
Recommendations • Scenario 4 • Difference in Retiree Replacements: $289,000 • Elementary Reductions 2.0 FTE: $130,000 • Middle School Reductions • $754,324 • $465,324 • $335,324
MIDDLE SCHOOL REDUCTIONS Cast forward current grade 5 enrollments into middle school Predict to the best ability the enrollment of students into intervention courses which impacts enrollment in other courses Language arts -0.2 FTE Math -0.6 FTE Ireading – 0.2 FTE AVID – 0.2 FTE (Integration dollars)
Recommendations • Scenario 4 • Difference in Retiree Replacements: $289,000 • Elementary Reductions 2.0 FTE (based on current enrollments cast forward): $130,000 • Middle School Reductions (based on current enrollments cast forward) 1.o FTE: $65,000 • Simley Reductions • $754,324 • $465,324 • $335,324 • $270,324
SIMLEY REDUCTIONS MATH -0.6 FTE PE/HEALTH -0.2 FTE SCIENCE – 1.4 FTE SOCIAL STUDIES- 0.571 FTE WORLD LANGUAGES– 0.2 FTE GERMAN +0.2 FTE SPANISH – 0.4 FTE EMT + 0.469 FTE AVID + 0.2 FTE (INTEGRATION)
Recommendations • Scenario 4 • Difference in Retiree Replacements: $289,000 • Elementary Reductions 2.0 FTE (based on current enrollments cast forward): $130,000 • Middle School Reductions (based on current enrollments cast forward) 1.0 FTE: $65,000 • Simley Reductions 2.502 FTE: $162,630 • Special Education Reductions • $754,324 • $465,324 • $335,324 • $270,324 • $107,694
SPECIAL EDUCATIONREDUCTIONS 1.0 fteElementary 1.0 fteSecondary Multiplied at 32%
Recommendations • Scenario 4 • Difference in Retiree Replacements: $289,000 • Elementary Reductions 2.0 FTE (based on current enrollments cast forward): $130,000 • Middle School Reductions (based on current enrollments cast forward) 1.0 FTE: $65,000 • Simley Reductions 2.502 FTE: $162,630 • Special Education 2.0 FTE: $41,600 • Title Reductions • $754,324 • $465,324 • $335,324 • $270,324 • $107,694 • $66,094
TITLE REDUCTIONS Only in event that sequestration significantly prohibits staffing
Recommendations • Scenario 4 • Difference in Retiree Replacements: $289,000 • Elementary Reductions 2.0 FTE (based on current enrollments cast forward): $130,000 • Middle School Reductions (based on current enrollments cast forward) 1.0 FTE: $65,000 • Simley Reductions 2.502 FTE: $162,630 • Special Education 2.0 FTE: $41,600 • Title: Unknown • General fund $66,094 • $754,324 • $465,324 • $335,324 • $270,324 • $107,694 • $66,094 • $0
Other Considerations Evaluate district RtI programs – State Special education audit – 3rd party billing Participate in staff development with NUA – integration dollars Evaluate district phy-ed program Transition to a semester based secondary program