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Requirements for ERMITAGE WP11

ERMITAGE: COUPLING MODELS INTO CIAS: WHY, WHAT, and HOW Nov 17, 2011 University of East Anglia Rachel Warren, Tyndall Centre,. Requirements for ERMITAGE WP11.

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Requirements for ERMITAGE WP11

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  1. ERMITAGE: COUPLING MODELSINTO CIAS: WHY, WHAT, and HOWNov 17, 2011University of East AngliaRachel Warren, Tyndall Centre,

  2. Requirements for ERMITAGE WP11 1. Create scenarios which simulate climate mitigation and examine their ‘sustainability’ for......adequacy of food and water supply, protection of ecosystems and water resources 2. Create scenarios that simulate ‘sustainable’ policies for land use, ecosystems, water supplies ....what is the effect on climate? 3. Identify tradeoffs/synergies; create scenarios that maximise sustainability in all these respects.

  3. So an integrated model is required that ... a. Links land, climate and hydrological models b. Combines models written at various institutions in different languages c. Stores model outcomes traceably d. Facilitates uncertainty analysis e. Allows study of feedbacks f. Flexible to answer different questions

  4. CIAS 2.0 Providing climate change and climate change impacts information for adaptation preparedness and mitigation decisions around the world

  5. CIAS 2.0 Design Features Uncertainty Analysis: Parameters Modules MULTI: -institutional -platform -language Flexibly linked modular system Feedbacks included Web portal Involves the stakeholder Community..

  6. The earlier the peak in emissions, the greater the avoided impacts AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

  7. CIAS portal: Managing results

  8. BASIC STRUCTURE OF CIAS Drivers Mitigation Emissions Climate Adaptation Impacts Downscaled climate

  9. BASIC STRUCTURE OF CIAS Drivers Mitigation Emissions Climate Adaptation Impacts Downscaled climate

  10. SCM Simple Climate Model MAGICC6 (UEA, PIK) Detail of CIAS (current): simple linear flows Wallace Initiative: Impacts on biodiversity Impacts on crop suitability (James Cook University, WWF US) Emission scenario database: emissions of greenhouse gases SCSG Spatial climate scenario generator ClimGEN (UEA) Agricultural Model PEGASUS Changes in crop yields Farm-scale adaptation (UEA, McGill) Hydrological Models MAC, Fiesta Changes in runoff Water stress (Nottingham, Kings) SDSM Lite Weaher Generator (L’borough) Degree Day Model (Reading) SPI Drought indicator (UEA)

  11. SCM Simple Climate Model MAGICC6 (UEA, PIK) LPJmL Impacts on vegetation zones Impacts on crop suitability Impacts on water resources (PIK) CIAS ERMITAGE COUPLING FLOW (NOW) Emission scenario database: emissions of greenhouse gases SCSG Spatial climate scenario generator ClimGEN (UEA)

  12. SCM Simple Climate Model MAGICC6 (UEA, PIK) LPJmL Impacts on vegetation zones Impacts on crop yields Impacts on water resources (PIK) CIAS ERMITAGE COUPLING FLOW (WP5) Emission scenario database: emissions of greenhouse gases SCSG Spatial climate scenario generator ClimGEN (UEA) MagPIE Lnad use change decisions Crop productivity Greenhouse gas emissions (PIK)

  13. GENIE Emulator (OU, UEA) LPJmL Impacts on vegetation zones Impacts on crop yields Impacts on water resources (PIK) CIAS ERMITAGE COUPLING FLOW (WP5) Emission scenario database: emissions of greenhouse gases SCSG Spatial climate scenario generator (UEA) MagPIE Lnad use change decisions Crop productivity Greenhouse gas emissions (PIK)

  14. GENIE Emulator (OU, UEA) Burden Sharing Simulator WP10 LPJmL Impacts on vegetation zones Impacts on crop yields Impacts on water resources (PIK) CIAS ERMITAGE COUPLING FLOW (WP11) WP9 Emission scenario database: emissions of greenhouse gases SCSG Spatial climate scenario generator (UEA) MagPIE Lnad use change decisions Crop productivity Greenhouse gas emissions (PIK) WP7 WP6 REMIND-R OR TIAM OR GEMINI-E3

  15. Positive features of CIAS ... 1.There’s a database There’s a metadatabase 2. Searchable: S&Q interface 3.Web portal that allows uncertainty analysis 4.Allows study of feedbacks between models 5. Allows linking of models different instiutions in different languages. 6. Can link full code, emulator, or executable

  16. To work with CIAS... • We work together by passing files manually between pairs of models to understand the coupling (as currently in WP5) without feedbacks: consider issues of time-stepping, spatial scales • Pass files manually to do feedback and understand science/economics of this • NB New large data base, TDH, is available to help us exchange our data files

  17. To work with CIAS...concurrently C. Rupert checks bfg supports language and if not adapt (WP2) D. Sudipta needs to be informed of: (i) scientific coupling between model pairs: test in SoftIAM E. To put the couplings in the portal Sudipta needs then: (ii) the required couplings (iii) output requirements (iv) which input parameters are suitable for uncertainty analysis

  18. Possible CIAS sequence to WP11.. • Scientific couplings in WP5 • close to decided so... • B. Couple GENIEemulator into CIAS • C. Couple LPJemulator into CIAS • D. GEMINI-E3 • E. MagPIE • F. REMIND-R, TIAM

  19. Which couplings can be created? • Magicc6-ClimGEN-LPJmL-MagPIE-Magicc6 (WP5) • GENIEEm-LPJmL-MagPIE-GENIEEm • C. GEMINIE3-GENIEEm (WP6) • REMINDR-MagPIE-LPJmL or TIAM-MagPIE-LPJmL (WP7) • E. REMINDR-GENIEEm (WP8) • F. REMINDR-Magicc6-ClimGEN-LPJmL-MagPIE-REMINDR • etc.

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