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ECOOP WP11

ECOOP WP11. ENSEMBLE AND SUPER-ENSEMBLE FORECASTING (TO UPGRADE EXISTING REGIONAL AND COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEMS). MOTIVATION. THE PREDICTABILITY LIMIT OF OCEAN WEATHER AND SEA LEVEL IS SHORT LIMITS FOR SHORT TERM FORECASTS ARE SET BY

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ECOOP WP11

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  1. ECOOP WP11 ENSEMBLE AND SUPER-ENSEMBLE FORECASTING (TO UPGRADE EXISTING REGIONAL AND COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEMS)

  2. MOTIVATION • THE PREDICTABILITY LIMIT OF OCEAN WEATHER AND SEA LEVEL IS SHORT • LIMITS FOR SHORT TERM FORECASTS ARE SET BY • 1) ATMOSPHERIC FORCING INACCURACY (intrinsic pred. lim.) • 2) INITIAL/LATERAL B. C. INACCURACY (intrinsic pred. lim) • 3) MODEL INAPPROPRIATE REPRESENTATION OF PHYSICAL PROCESSES (uncertainity of dyn. eq.) • GIVE THE CORRECT INFORMATION TO USERS WITH PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE OF FORECAST (‘ERROR BARS’) • ADVANCE THE UNDERSTANDING OF CAUSES OF ERRORS IN THE REGIONAL/COASTAL FORECAST SYSTEMS

  3. PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE • METEOROLOGY • Ensemble methods for global ten days forecasts is now done routinely • Meteo LAM ensemble forecasts are also done routinely by some services around Europe • Ensemble forecasts are done for seasonal forecasts (El Nino) • Multi-model ensemble forecast shown to be better for extended range forecast

  4. 1996-1997 El Nino event Ensemble forecasting for El Nino: changes in the initial SST of forecast

  5. Red is ensemble mean of different models DEMETER results: multi-model estimation Precipitation Anomaly Correlation in the tropics and for JJA

  6. WP11 Targeted products and services • Targeted ECOOP PRODUCTS improvement • Currents, temperature, salinity forecasts IN DEMONSTRATION AREAS • Sea level forecasts (storm surge) IN DEMONSTRATION AREAS • Biochemical state variables ?? • Targeted ECOOP SERVICES that will be impacted • Storm surge • Oıl spıll • Search and rescue • Coastal protectıon • Oxygen depletıon ??? • HABs ???

  7. What is a ‘demonstration area’? • It is a geographical area with an existing forecasting system for the given ECOOP basic products where we would like to develop the ensemble forecasting methods • Where to show the benefit for one of the many impacted services • Where to show the functioning of the upgraded system for a Target Demonstration Period-TDP to show pre-operationality

  8. WP11 Specific Objectives • Develop and implement new technologies for ensemble forecasts for currents and storm surges • Develop and implement methodologies for multi-model ensemble forecasting (super-ensemble) • Develop these technologies/methodologies so as to cast uncertainties in probabilistic terms for services

  9. WP11 tasks • Task 11.1 Ensemble experiments • Subtask 11.1.1 Med Sea currents • Subtask 11.1.2 N-W shelf storm surge • Subtask 11.1.3 ????biochemistry??? • This task will develop and implement real time 3-10 days ensemble forecasting methods/technology by perturbing atmospheric forcing and initial/lateral boundary conditions and will evaluate the quality of ECOOP products • Task 11.2 Super-ensemble experiments • Subtask 11.2.1 Med area currents • Subtask 11.2.2 ???? • This task will develop the super-ensemble methods to meld information from overlapping existing forecasting systems to create a multi-model estimate and will evaluate the quality of the resulting ECOOP products

  10. WP11 Tasks (cont.) • Task 11.3 TDP exercise • This task will show for six months the production of super-ensemble and ensemble forecasts in the demonstration areas and will evaluate the quality of the products internally (scientific validation) • Task 11.4 Impact of ensemble forecasts on services • This task will connect the TDP exercise products with final services for • Oıl spıll • Oxygen depletıon ??? • HABs ???? • Coastal protectıon • Search and rescue In order to show benefit of ensemble methodology in regional/coastal forecasting (end-user evaluation) • Task 11.5 Presentation of ensemble forecast on ECOOP portal • This task will develop the relevant probability maps for the ECOOP products to be presented in the ECOOP portal (WP5) with particular attention to give ‘correct’ information to end-users

  11. WP11 Main deliverables • Three-four regional/coastal operational systems for currents and storm surges upgraded to do ensemble and super-ensemble forecasts • Probability characteristics of ECOOP products for several European areas • Improved services for ECOOP

  12. Comment: Physical data assimilation improvements? • It is taken out of here because too limited (do not need everywhere ensemble to ameliorate data assimilation) • But it should go somewhere together with the upgrade and implementation in existing systems of data assimilation systems

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