1 / 33

Dynamic Traffic Management: Planning with uncertainty to offer certainty

2. 9-3-2012. Overview of the presentation. IntroductionPlanning and actual performanceDynamic Traffic ManagementConclusions. 3. 9-3-2012. Introduction. 4. 9-3-2012. The Dutch railway industry. . Ministry of. Transport and Public Works. . . . Train Operating Companies. . . Subsidies on unprofitable train services.

zabrina
Download Presentation

Dynamic Traffic Management: Planning with uncertainty to offer certainty

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

    1. Dynamic Traffic Management: Planning with uncertainty to offer certainty

    2. 2 9-3-2012 Overview of the presentation Introduction Planning and actual performance Dynamic Traffic Management Conclusions

    3. 3 9-3-2012 Introduction

    4. 4 9-3-2012 The Dutch railway industry

    5. 5 9-3-2012 Need for more train services New timetable by 2007: Opening of HSL-Zuid and Betuweroute 4 tracks on Amsterdam – Utrecht “Benutten en Bouwen” corridor model Light Rail “Knooppunt Arnhem-Nijmegen”

    6. 6 9-3-2012 Bottleneck in infrastructure Questions: Can a better punctuality be achieved? Is it possible to run more trains through the Arnhem station? Does capacity ‘disappear’ in the planning process? Possible solution: Dynamic Traffic Management

    7. 7 9-3-2012 Study area

    8. 8 9-3-2012 Planning and actual performance

    9. 9 9-3-2012 Traffic as a process

    10. 10 9-3-2012 Planning functions Informing passengers about the offered services External function: organizing output “when will my train depart?” Enabling efficient operations Internal function: organizing input and process “not too many, not too few”

    11. 11 9-3-2012 Steering on inputs Comparable to feedforward Rules are rules Behaviour of system is assumed exactly known Output is resultant Example: Cooking with a recipe

    12. 12 9-3-2012 Steering on outputs Comparable to feedback Rules give an indication of feasibility Most important is achieving the output goals Example: The proof of the pudding is in the taste Small variations in duration of cooking process

    13. 13 9-3-2012 Planning now Almost 100% feedforward Generic planning norms All conflicts are being solved in advance: much effort “if the plan is OK, then the performance will also be OK.” No feedback of (all) operational problems Assumption of 100% punctuality No “Plan B” for trains missing their train paths

    14. 14 9-3-2012 Punctualiteit TNV

    15. 15 9-3-2012 Operations now Assumption of 100% punctuality is false Changing the plan is seen as an exception Strict dispatching rules Dispatcher has become a last-minute planner: ± 15 minutes in advance No visualization of future situation Mental changes now - then Operations by an automatic route setting device

    16. 16 9-3-2012 Operations now (2) Feedback with long loop On basis of rough information Need for frequent telecommunication Output goals get out of the picture Goal is re-arranging the plan isolating ‘sick trains’

    17. 17 9-3-2012 Analysis of performance data Using TNV-Prepare; peak hour march 2004: Many delays are being imported to the study area Delays generally do not increase Tracks are changed in up to 40% of the trains Trains do hinder each other, but that does not decrease capacity of bottlenecks

    18. 18 9-3-2012 Process control now Differences in planning and operation: Drivers speak of smoothly running traffic Simulation 2004: Measures do not improve the situation Plan is being changed often Conclusion: the plan is not an optimal preparation for the desired traffic process and should be improved

    19. 19 9-3-2012 Dynamic Traffic Management

    20. 20 9-3-2012 1. Planning uncertainty: time windows

    21. 21 9-3-2012 Overlap of time windows Indicates the possibility of a conflict In current way of planning this is hidden, but it does occur

    22. 22 9-3-2012 2. Re-scheduling As soon as there is more certainty (15 minutes in advance) Support dispatchers with feedforward (TMS) and feedback (actual process) On basis of actual blocking time estimations Distribute new plan to all users: Passengers Personell on trains Personell on platforms and ticket offices

    23. 23 9-3-2012 Bestaande situatie (uitvoering)

    24. 24 9-3-2012 3. Separate internal and external plan Also by means of a time window Time windows show the acceptable plan deviations so that passengers don’t have to change their plans Great Brittain: Public timetable Working timetable

    25. 25 9-3-2012 Simulation study What if details in the plan are left open? Many assumptions needed Results are conservative Only order of alternatives is useful information 2007 timetable: by experiment not conflict free

    26. 26 9-3-2012 Simulation area

    27. 27 9-3-2012 Average decrease in running time

    28. 28 9-3-2012 Increase of delays per variant (2007)

    29. 29 9-3-2012 Limitations of DTM measures Passengers: Only choose different tracks on same platform Limited window width Safety: Trains should not generally run on yellow signals

    30. 30 9-3-2012

    31. 31 9-3-2012 Simulation conclusions No problem in 2004 No conflict-free plan possible in 2007 Results are valid only for a ‘usually disturbed’ timetable Bottleneck is not in platform tracks or level free crossings, but in running time differences

    32. 32 9-3-2012 Conclusions

    33. 33 9-3-2012 Conclusions To achieve output goals, adequate process control is needed, of which planning is only one Uncertainty should be incorporated in the plan Re-scheduling on short term before actual operations Communication Feedback Separation of external and internal plan to hide uncertainty from passengers DTM can be as effective as conventional measures, but it is unknown what passengers will accept

    34. 34 9-3-2012 Questions ?

More Related