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Are Savings from Behavioral Programs Ready for TRM Prime Time?

Are Savings from Behavioral Programs Ready for TRM Prime Time?. Behavior, Energy, and Climate Change Conference November 12, 2012. What is a TRM?. Total Research Madness? Totally Reliable Measures? Technical Reference Manual. Expected savings/algorithms Also provide other parameters

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Are Savings from Behavioral Programs Ready for TRM Prime Time?

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  1. Are Savings from Behavioral Programs Ready for TRM Prime Time? Behavior, Energy, and Climate Change Conference November 12, 2012

  2. What is a TRM? • Total Research Madness? • Totally Reliable Measures? • Technical Reference Manual • Expected savings/algorithms • Also provide other parameters • Typically focused on “high impact” measures

  3. Purpose of a TRM Source: State of IL TRM, September 2012 “Serve as a common reference document …to provide transparency [and consistency] to all parties regarding savings assumptions and calculations…“

  4. How TRMs are Used • Deemed values vs. algorithms?

  5. Which States are Impacted by TRMs?

  6. How Are Behavioral Programs Handled in TRMs? • Most states don’t address behavioral programs • MA deems a value • Based on prior evaluation • AR and PA have protocols • AR Based largely on SEE/LBNL protocols

  7. So Back to the Original Question… Are Savings from Behavioral Programs Ready for TRM Prime Time? • Yes • Behavioral programs becoming more and more common • Likely to represent a larger percentage of savings • No • Significant uncertainty on how savings achieved • Questions on persistence

  8. Recommendation • TRMs should adopt evaluation protocols – Not Values • Will ensure transparency and consistency in approach • Can address policy issues • Persistence • Double counting • Highly recommend either fully or partially adopting SEE/LBNL document • http://behavioranalytics.lbl.gov

  9. Questions? Contact: Scott Dimetrosky Apex Analytics 1525 Spruce Street, Suite 200 Boulder, CO 80302 (303)975-6054 scottd@apexanalyticsllc.com

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