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Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South

Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South. Bernd Brouns Research Group „Energy, Transport, and Climate Policy” 11th EADI General Conference Panel “Environment and Human Rights” 23 September 2005. The climate is already changing.

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Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South

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  1. Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South Bernd Brouns Research Group „Energy, Transport, and Climate Policy” 11th EADI General Conference Panel “Environment and Human Rights” 23 September 2005

  2. The climate is already changing... Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy

  3. Concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy

  4. Global average surface temperature Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy

  5. Kilimanjaro(Tanzania) Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy

  6. Upsala Glacier (Argentina) Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy

  7. “There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.”(IPCC 2001) Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy

  8. Future impacts of climate change Vulnerability of human societies and natural systems due to I. Increased frequency and/or severity of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, heat waves, avalanches, and windstorms. II. Slow but continuous change of climatic conditions such as temperature increase, sea level rise, change of precipitation patterns, ice melting. Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy

  9. Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy Bewertungsskala: --, -, 0, +, ++

  10. Projected impacts on water availability • Climate change increases water resource stresses in some regions, but decreases them in others. • People living in water-stressed regions from 1.7 million to around 5 million by 2025. • Increases in precipitation will occur during high flow season but may not alleviate dry season problems. • Most vulnerable regions are central Asia, southern Africa and countries around the Mediterranean Sea. Source: IPCC (2001); Arnell (2004) Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy

  11. Projected impacts on agriculture and food security • Crop yield responses to climate change vary widely. • Even though increased CO2 concentration can stimulate crop growth and yield, that benefit may not always overcome the adverse effects of excessive heat and drought. • In some temperate areas potential yield increase for small increases of temperature but decrease with larger temperature changes; In most (sub)tropical regions potential yields are projected to decrease for most projected increases of temperature. • Climate change will worsen food security in Africa. Source: IPCC (2001); Parry et al. (2004) Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy

  12. “Those with the least resources have the least capacity to adapt and are the most vulnerable.” (IPCC 2001) Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy

  13. What does that mean? • For climate policy: The definition of long-term climate goals must take into account the human rights of those who are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. • For human rights policy: climate change endangers basic rights of people and its economic/social/cultural survival. Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy

  14. Thank you for your attention!Any further questions? Please contact bernd.brouns@wupperinst.org

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