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Tomorrow’s Energy Today

Tomorrow’s Energy Today. Final presentation - COMP 410 F12. Motivation. Electrons run our lives. ???. Availability. Sustainability. Affordability. Introduction. A Tool for the Future. COMP 410. Hard at Work! . 14 CS students Semester-long senior design course Completely student-run

zachary-nelson
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Tomorrow’s Energy Today

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  1. Tomorrow’s Energy Today Final presentation - COMP 410 F12

  2. Motivation Electrons run our lives.

  3. ??? Availability Sustainability Affordability

  4. Introduction A Tool for the Future

  5. COMP 410 Hard at Work!  • 14 CS students • Semester-long senior design course • Completely student-run • Given problem statement • Not a project Who are we?

  6. John Hofmeister Citizens for Affordable Energy Mission to educate citizens and government about pragmatic, non-partisan affordable energy solutions • Former President of Shell • Chief Executive of CFAE Customer

  7. Develop a simulation framework capable of simulating the results of custom made energy plans for different energy models • Create a non-partisan plan for the U.S. energy system for the next 50 years • Availability, affordability and sustainability Problem Statement

  8. Verify the plan produces desired results on simulator • Make the plan and results readily available to the public to verify and edit Problem Statement

  9. Model of the US Energy Industry • Best-case, average-case, and worst-case 50-year plans for the energy industry • Simulator • Public Web Interface • Cloud Storage • General Purpose Modeling Specification

  10. Our plans (best, worst and average cases) for the US electrical industry for the next 50 years. • Our model of the US electrical industry. • Demonstration of our plan and our model in the simulator. • Explanation of simulator. Contents

  11. Plan for the Future Average, Best, and Worst Cases

  12. Components • Assumptions • Data via the EIA (Energy Information Administration) • Events • Projections based on current data • Divided into four key sections • Consumers • Producers • Environment • Infrastructure Plan Overview

  13. Assumptions • 312,000,000 U.S. citizens • 1.797 MWhr average peak demand per capita per month Events • All Cases • Population grows by .79% each year. • Worst Case • Average peak demand remains increase greatly. • Average Case • Average peak demand increases. • Best Case • Average peak demand decreases. Plan - Consumers

  14. Assumptions • 8 sources of electricity • Coal, Petroleum, & Natural Gas • Nuclear • Geothermal, Hydroelectric, Wind& Solar • Each has: • Capacity (in MW) • Operating Cost (in $) • Carbon Output Rate (in lbs/kWh) Events • All Cases • Scheduled coal plant retirements. • Worst Case • Status quo • Average Case • Invest in natural gas • Best Case • Invest in natural gas, nuclear, and wind Plan - Producers

  15. Assumptions • Average of 7% lost in energy transport. Events • Worst Case • Status quo. • Average Case • 2040 , smart grid decreases losses to 4% • Best Case • 2035, smart grid decreases losses to 1% Plan - Infrastructure

  16. Energy Model Representing an intertwined system.

  17. Model: A representation of the energy industry in terms of interconnected modules. • Module: An object which wraps a function and keeps track of values. • Function: A piece of code or math which takes a set of input values and computes a set of output values. Energy Model

  18. Sub Add Add 8 3 Mult Add Function Module Model 5 Model Cont.

  19. “Characterized by interdependence, mutual interaction, information feedback, and circular causality.” - System Dynamics Society • Abstraction of systems as a series of stocks and influential flows • Benefits: • Extensibility • Comparability System Dynamics

  20. Extensibility Comparability Determine differences in functionality between different models. • Quickly and easily break down simple stocks/flows into more complex ones. SD Advantages

  21. Producer Consumer Infrastructure Environment Price

  22. Five Modules • Consumer • Producer • Infrastructure • Environment • Price Our Model

  23. Consumer Module

  24. Consumer Demand Curve

  25. Producer Module

  26. Desired percentage = F(current price, operating cost) • Supply = capacity * desired percentage • Carbon = supply * carbon output rate Energy Source Module

  27. Environment Module

  28. Infrastructure Module

  29. Price Module

  30. Price change % = F(current price, supply, demand) • Change in price = (price change % * current price)/delay • Price = change in price + current price Price

  31. Simulator A Tool for Policy

  32. Load pre-constructed models and plans. • Make edits to models and plans dynamically. • Save new models and plans for later use. • Run a simulation and view results. Features

  33. (Look at the other screen! ) Demonstration

  34. Architecture

  35. The two main Design decisions: • ASP.NET MVC4 • JsPlumb User Interface Architecture

  36. Goals • Connect Azure VMs for other subsystems. • Manage the process of spawning and killing Azure VMs. • Balance load across VMs. • Provide persistent storage. Network Subsystem

  37. Network Architecture

  38. WCF • Abstracts lower-level networking away for simplicity. • With TCP, faster than CloudQueues. • SQL Database • Slower than Table Storage, but allows relational organization and querying. Design Decisions

  39. Model Architecture

  40. Function The Module

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