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South Region

South Region. LNG market changes and cross border flows. SGRI – 15th November 2013. Agenda. France Zone North – Zone South flows France - Spain cross-border flows Spain – LNG and Third country flows Portugal – LNG and cross-border flows.

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South Region

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  1. South Region LNG market changes and cross border flows SGRI – 15th November 2013

  2. Agenda France Zone North – Zone South flows France - Spain cross-border flows Spain – LNG and Third country flows Portugal – LNG and cross-border flows

  3. Transmission demand in 2012Main evolutions vs. 2011 • Drop of LNG supplies • -38% between 2011 and 2012 • -50% at Montoir • Historical cold snap in February 2012 • 10 days at record levels with daily consumption above 3 000 GWh/day • Higher entries at Dunkirk (+12%) and Obergailbach (+38%) to offset LNG’s supplies • Growing exports to Spain (+18%), decreasing to Italy (-34%)

  4. Transmission demand in 2012 • High rate of long term subscription : • PIR~100% • Lesser bookings at PITS • High utilization of subscribed capacities at PIR • Lesser use of regas capacities • Maximum utilization of the North / South Interconnection Point • All points used at least one time at their fully booked capacities AA 82% LT 100% AA 88 % LT 100 % AA 70% LT 100% AA 62 % LT 94% AA 32 % LT 100% AA8% LT15 % AA 93% LT 100 % AA 19% LT 87% AA 63% LT W 61% LT S 89% AA 15% LT 100% AA58 % LT 92% Annual Average LTsubscription Daily Maximum use below 100%

  5. Transmission demand in 2012High use of capacities at PIRs reflecting the global increase of gas flows through pipelines in 2012 Rate of subscription Rate of subscription

  6. Transmission demand in 2012Sharp drop at Oltingue and at PITTM, an increase at PIR Midi OLTINGUE MIDI Rate of subscription LNG FOS LNG MONTOIR

  7. North-South link (1/2)High rate of subscription and increased use in the current market situation Rate of subscription Firm capacities limited to 230 GWh/day between North and South Due to LNG drop, North South IP used at 93% on average in 2012 Average spread at 1.6 €/MWh in 2012 with higher points at 7 €/MWh Market coupling and joint transport storage services introduced to relieve the congestion

  8. North-South link (2/2) Nota: Maximum technicalcapacity = Firm + Interruptible

  9. Midi IP Nota: Maximum technicalcapacity = Firm + Interruptible

  10. Montoir Nota: Maximum technicalcapacity = Firm + Interruptible

  11. Fos Nota: Maximum technicalcapacity = Firm + Interruptible

  12. Agenda France Zone North – Zone South flows France - Spain cross-border flows Spain – LNG and Third country flows Portugal – LNG and cross-border flows

  13. Larrau Interconnection Point (Historical) Winter Summer Firm marketable capacities Subscribed capacities Average nominations Nominations * Rate of use of subscribed capacities • All firm marketable capacities (France  Spain) have been subscribed • Between 2008 & 2012 shippers have used around 70 % of their capacities. • Strong increase of rate of use for the last 3 years • 50% en 2010 • around 100 % in2012 13

  14. Larrau Interconnection Point (2013) Capacityincrease 1st april 64% rate of use 99% rate of use 10% rate of use Capacityincrease 1st april 14

  15. Biriatou Interconnection Point (2013) 76% rate of use 15

  16. Agenda France Zone North – Zone South flows France - Spain cross-border flows Spain – LNG and Third country flows Portugal – LNG and cross-border flows

  17. Utilisation of LNG terminalsDecrease of LNG terminals use HUELVA BARCELONA CARTAGENA BILBAO 17

  18. Utilisation of LNG terminalsDecrease of LNG terminals use SAGUNTO REGANOSA * Data as from 1 April 2008 18

  19. BARCELONA 19

  20. HUELVA 20

  21. CARTAGENA 21

  22. BILBAO

  23. SAGUNTO

  24. REGANOSA

  25. Utilisation of Third country IPs TARIFA ALMERIA * Data as fromMarch 2011

  26. TARIFA

  27. ALMERIA

  28. Agenda France Zone North – Zone South flows France - Spain cross-border flows Spain – LNG and Third country flows Portugal – LNG and cross-border flows

  29. Portugal – Spain Interconnections and Sines LNG Terminal IP 34 – Valença do Minho / Tuy (V.M./Tuy) Cross-border capacity is marketed since Oct-12 in the VIP Both IPs are bi-directional Sines LNG Terminal offers back-haul capacity to the market Virtual Interconnection Point (VIP) IP 35 – Badajoz / Campo Maior (Badajoz/C.M.) • Cross-border flows occur >99% through Badajoz/C.M. IP • LNG / NG split is around 43% Sines LNG Terminal 29

  30. LNG and Cross-border Flows Historical Data (2009-2012) CAGR: -11.2% Sines LNG Terminal Cross-border imports to the Portuguese gas system for the last 5 years show a slight increase as LNG flows are dropping in the same period Rates of Use / average regasification: LNG Terminal 2009: 44% / 99 GWh/day 2012: 29% / 61 GWh/day Interconnections (Import) 2009: 36% / 62 GWh/day 2012: 44% / 74 GWh/day Peak flows remain above 70% in both entries (At IP Badajoz/C.M. alone, peak flow was 90% on average for the last 4 years) CAGR: +4.2% Cross-border - Export Cross-border - Import Physical flows in export direction only occur at V.M./Tuy IP 30

  31. Sines LNG Terminal 2013 (Jan-Oct) Average rate of use of regasification is 27% Minimum send-out capacity is 33 GWh/day (16% of technical capacity) Use of back-haul capacity is marginal (0-8 GWh/day) 31

  32. Interconnections Portugal-Spain 2013 (Jan-Oct) Cross-border flows are managed as one single interconnection For operational reasons, gas flows predominantly through Badajoz/C.M. IP Import fluctuations are compensated by LNG flow variations to maintain domestic consumption supply 32

  33. Thank you for your attention

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