Do pastoralists have a role in domestic and export livestock trade?

1. Do pastoralists have a role in domestic and export livestock trade? PACAPS/RELPA Garissa 22-25 Sep, 2008

2. Pastoralists in domestic and export trade • The commonly accepted ‘fact’ is pastoralists accumulate wealth through livestock accumulation and don’t sell surplus animals. Therefore: • Group 1: So, they don’t contribute that much for domestic and export markets. Government should support them to be engaged in commercial production systems to maximize benefit from livestock marketing. • Group 2: No, they contribute a lot to domestic and export markets and need not be persuaded to be engaged in commercial production systems.

3. Livestock population of Eastern Africa (Kenya, Sudan, Ethiopia and Somalia)

4. ASAL AREAS

5. The Contribution of Livestock to GDP

6. ASAL’s contribution to domestic and export markets • 70% of the domestic meat demand in Kenya • 25 - 35% in Ethiopia • 100% in Somalia and Sudan • 85% export revenues in Somalia • 25% in Sudan, before oil • <5% in Ethiopia and Kenya

7. ASAL’s contribution to domestic and export markets • 70% of the domestic meat demand in Kenya • 25% in Ethiopia • 100% in Somalia and Sudan • 85% export revenues in Somalia • 25% in Sudan, before oil • <5% in Ethiopia and Kenya

8. Volume of exports (2006)

9. Value of livestock and meat exports (2006) • Sudan - $125 million • Somalia - $200 million • Ethiopia - $25 million • Kenya - ? • Nearly all the livestock exported from the region were sourced from pastoral areas • Note: excluding revenues from hides and skins

10. Major export destinations • Saudi Arabia (during the Haj) • UAE, Yemen, Bahrain, Qatar, Egypt • However, this potential trade is from time to time affected by bans on real and perceived fears • Such bans seriously affect the livelihoods of pastoralists

11. Cross-border and international livestock trade

12. Sheep exports from Sudan

13. International meat trade • The global meat trade is dominated by Brazil, Australia, Uruguay, Argentina, USA, New Zealand and of late, India and EU • Capable of exporting to high and low-end markets • In 2015, Global meat consumption is projected to be 315 mmt • In 2005, traded poultry was 7.5 mmt, beef, 7.4 mmt and sheep meat 1.2 mmt

14. Trends • Growth in meat demand is forecasted to level off at 2% per annum after 2,015 • The EU is expected to be a net importer of 530,000 MT in 2015 (against a net export volume of 1.5 mmt in 2005) • Despite the opportunity, none of the EA countries are likely to export to high end markets due to SPS and other factors

15. Challenges for EA • A growing demand for particular cuts that allow ease of preparation • An increasing requirement by importers for certification, sometimes by third parties • Greater need for product safety (traceability) • Greater concern for animal welfare • Developed countries will continue to be the major players in growth in global meat production and consumption • The use of SPS as a highly effective form of protection

16. Trends - cont' • Increasing standards in MENA countries also threatens the likelihood of exports from EA region (unless and if standards are compromised by acute meat shortages) • This necessitates: • Investments in SPS systems • Investments in economy of scale processing capacity (including meat grading systems) • Commercial production (stratified marketing system) • Integrated marketing systems

17. Issues in SPS • Obviously, upgrading and strengthening Veterinary services, animal disease reporting, surveillance and control is critical to bring the SPS status to an acceptable standard • The economic viability of establishing new DFZs, however, requires serious consideration • Because initial and maintenance investments are high, technically difficult, recognition takes too long and the costs of social exclusion are high • 70-80% of the national livestock population belonging to communities in Botswana, Namibia and S.Africa are excluded from international markets • Is CBT an alternative to DFZs?

18. African exporters position in the EU