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Historical context Environmental migration from past to present

Historical context Environmental migration from past to present. Environment & Migration. Migration triggered by environmental events. Environment as a pull factor

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Historical context Environmental migration from past to present

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  1. HistoricalcontextEnvironmental migration frompast to present Environment & Migration

  2. Migration triggered by environmentalevents

  3. Environment as a pull factor • When one looks at the population densities on a world-scale, itisclearthat population distribution has been hugelyinfluenced by environmental conditions • Anticipative migration • Ex.: The purchase of Kioaisland by Vaitupuislanders, 1951.

  4. An emerging concept • First mentioned in the 1970s • First UNEP report in 1985 • Growinginterest in the mid-2000s: • Realisation of the impacts of climate change • Major naturaldisasters • Tsunami 2004 • Katrina 2005 • Pakistan earthquake 2005 > Confusion betweendisplacementslinked to climate change and otherenvironmentaldegradation.

  5. What has changed? • Issue of magnitude • Somepredict up to 200 Miosdisplaced by 2050 • This could double the number of migration worldwide • Issue of responsibility • Could open the way for global cooperation • … and compensation

  6. How the debateisconceptualisedtoday • The alarmist perspective • Made up primarily of environmentalscholars, NGOs, and the media • Seesmigration flows as one of the mostdevastatingconsequences of climate change • Policy agenda: mobilise action aroundclimate change • Dominant perspective • The sceptical perspective • Made up primarily of migration scholars and refugeelawyers • Insists on the multi-causality of migration • Policy agenda: protectcurrentrights of migrants and refugees

  7. ‘A disasterready for consumption’ (Farbotko 2011) A debatedisconnectedfrom the realities of migration • Migrants are seen as expiatory, resourcelessvictims of climate change. • Many of themdon’tconsiderthemselves as victims, or don’twant to beconsidered as such. • Migrants are resourceful agents – they are not the mostvulnerable. • Migration isperceived as an adaptation failure • In many cases, itcanbe an adaptation strategy. • We assume a direct, causal relationshipbetweenclimate change and migration. • Weexpectthatthesedisplacementswillbeforced and international. • We assume that the nature and extent of the migration flowswilldependupon the impacts of climate change. • Environmentaldeterminism • Climate-induced migration oftenperceived as a threat to security. • In many cases, itcanactuallyimprovehumansecurity.

  8. London Futures, exhibition at the Museum of London

  9. A deterministic perspective The distribution of net population displacement over the twenty-first century by region assuming no protection for a 0.5 m (grey bars) and a 2.0 m (black bars) rise in sea level. Nicholls R J et al. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011;369:161-181

  10. A security agenda WBGU 2008

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