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Re-Balance to Asia: Prospects for Maritime Security in the Indo-Pacific

Re-Balance to Asia: Prospects for Maritime Security in the Indo-Pacific. 6 March 2013 Prof. K. L. Nankivell nankivellk@apcss.org. Agenda. Strategic Overview: Maritime Security in the Indo-Pacific What does an increased role for the United States look like?

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Re-Balance to Asia: Prospects for Maritime Security in the Indo-Pacific

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  1. Re-Balance to Asia:Prospects for MaritimeSecurity in the Indo-Pacific 6 March 2013 Prof. K. L. Nankivell nankivellk@apcss.org

  2. Agenda • Strategic Overview: Maritime Security in the Indo-Pacific • What does an increased role for the United States look like? • Challenges & Opportunities in S&T engagement

  3. Proliferation of Blue-Water Middle Powers 48 Subs 2 Large Deck 2 Subs 15 Subs 3 Large Deck 30 Subs 3 Large Deck 33 subs? 12 Subs 4 Large Deck? 4 Large Deck 8 Subs? 1 Sub NAVAL UNITSRECENTAND PLANNED 6 Subs 6 Subs 3 Large Deck 2 Subs 2 Subs • 65% of World’s Navies • Over $100B committed until 2015 for new submarines • Up to 21 Large Deck units in build or planned 3 + 7 Subs? 2 + 6 Subs? 2 Large Deck12 Subs

  4. Asian Dominance of Trade

  5. Asian Dominance of Trade

  6. Asian Dominance of Trade Lloyd’s Maritime Intelligence Unit, 2010

  7. Asian Dominance of Trade High trade volume, low trade density

  8. 2011 2010 Ports, by TEU handled (millions) Source: www.worldshipping.org, jan 2013

  9. 2011 2010 Ports, by TEU handled (millions) Source: www.worldshipping.org, jan 2013

  10. Contested Concept of the Commons NWP 1-14M, U.S. Navy

  11. Northern 4 Isls Issue (Japan, Russia) Take-shima/Dokdo Issue (Japan, ROK) Senkaku/Diaoyu Dispute (Japan, PRC, Taiwan) Taiwan Paracel Isls (PRC, Vietnam, Taiwan) EEZ Line (Japan) Macclesfield Bank (PRC, Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan) Spratly Isls (Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Philippines, Taiwan, PRC) SOVEREIGNTY DISPUTES IN EAST ASIA ‘International Boundary’ announced by China Map source: the University of Texas at Austin Northern Limit Line (UN) Thai-Cambodia Dispute

  12. Contested Concept of the Commons: The SCS Disputes • Who owns the land features? • Where are the boundaries of EEZs and int’l waters? • What rights and responsibilities does jurisdiction confer? (Whatactivities are legal)? Territorial Maritime Jurisdictional

  13. What Does an Increased Role for the United States look like? Underwriting the Status Quo: Presence Persistence Partners & AlliesParameters

  14. Challenges & Opportunities: S&T Engagement Gray Hulls White Hulls • Building partner capacity without remaking the partner • Preparing for asymmetry of adversaries • Resourcing the Back-Office for the long run • Building partner capacity without remaking the partner • Focus on shared interests, share-able technologies, easy-access platforms (real & virtual)

  15. DISCUSSION Kerry Lynn Nankivell nankivellk@apcss.org(808) 564-5011

  16. The Quest for Resources

  17. Ladd Reef, Vietnam Occupied Spratly Islands 2007

  18. Mischief Reef, 2007 PRC Occupied

  19. Okino Torishima Japanese Occupied 2010

  20. Territorial Sovereignty Disputes • UNCLOS has no provisions on how to resolve disputes over which State has sovereignty over off-shore islands • Territorial sovereignty disputes governed by principles of customary international law • No dispute on territorial sovereignty can be referred to a Court or Tribunal without the CONSENT of all the parties to the dispute

  21. China’s current position ? ? • Three-Pronged Argument ? • Sovereignty over all features (not just islands) and their adjacent territorial sea • Sovereign Rights and Jurisdiction in the EEZ and Continental Shelf measured from the features • Historical Rights and Jurisdiction (and control) over the natural resources in and under the waters within the 9-dased line, even within the EEZ of the coastal States

  22. In relation to EEZ movements by military and scientific vessels • The following are not clear on their legal position – or require consent for military uses in the EEZ: • India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Brazil, Maldives, Philippines, Portugal, Uruguay, Malaysia, Vietnam, Kenya, (Thailand)…and others

  23. SOVEREIGNTY DISPUTES IN SOUTH ASIA As adjudicated by ITLOS 14 Mar 2012

  24. Unfriendly Neighbors:Beaufort Sea

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