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Effectiveness of the Visual Analog Scale for the Measurement of Business Expectations

2 / 21. Present business situationBusiness expectations. Visual Analog Scale (VAS) in Web Surveys . . Ifo Economic Climate Index. . . 3-Category Scale.. . 3 / 21. Motivation: Measurement of Expectations . . Qualitative measurement of economic expectations: category-rating scales. Probabilistic expectations.

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Effectiveness of the Visual Analog Scale for the Measurement of Business Expectations

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    1. Effectiveness of the Visual Analog Scale for the Measurement of Business Expectations Anna Stangl Ifo Institute for Economic Research Brussels, 12. October 2009

    2. 2 / 21 Visual Analog Scale (VAS) in Web Surveys

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    6. 6 / 21 Data

    7. 7 / 21 Observation period

    8. 8 / 21 Scale reliability: Parallel-form reliability Test-retest reliability Internal consistency Inter-rater reliability Scale Reliability Tests

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    11. 11 / 21 “Epistemic uncertainty” Bruine de Bruin et al., 2000 Dispersion of business expectations (Heterogeneity) Zarnowith and Labros, 1987, Bomberger, 1996, Batchelor and Dua, 1996, Giordani and Soderlind, 2003, Rich and Tracy, 2006, Mitchel et al., 2005, Lahiri and Liu, 2006, Doepke and Fritsche, 2006, Boero et al., 2007… 3. Kurtosis Doepke and Fritsche, 2006: A significant kurtosis above 3 indicates that the forecasters are very close to each other. 4. Skewness Doepke and Fritsche, 2006: If the distribution of economic expectations is significantly skewed, consensus among forecasters is rejected

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    15. 15 / 21 Skewness of the VAS Business Expectations

    16. 16 / 21 Skewness of the VAS Business Expectations and Production Index

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    18. 18 / 21 Dispersion and Kurtosis of business expectations - Contra-cyclical - Proxy for uncertainty and heterogeneity “Epistemic uncertainty” (Bruine et al. definition) - Increases around turning points - Proxy for uncertainty Skewness of the VAS distribution - Cyclical - More pronounced in VAS business situation

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    21. 21 / 21 Gathering longer time-series Improving the business cycle forecasts with the information on uncertainty and heterogeneity of expectations (out-of-sample forecasts) VAS measurement of consumer expectations Application of VAS batteries in surveys, analysis of drop-outs

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