Brief Presentation on Climate Change: Basic Issues (Adaptation, Mitigation and Negotiation)

1. The ECBI Regional Workshop ON CLIMATE CHANGE NEGOTIATIONS IN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ASIA Rajendrapur, Gazipur, Bangladesh 7-9 AUGUST 2006 Brief Presentation on Climate Change: Basic Issues (Adaptation, Mitigation and Negotiation) Presented by Dr. A. Atiq Rahman Executive Director, Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS) Visiting Professor, the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University & Harvard University, USA

2. Sources of GHGs • Energy Sector • Energy Industry • Manufacturing Industries • Transport • Residential Sector • Commercial • Agriculture • Agriculture Sector • Crop Agriculture • Livestock and Manure Management- • Landuse Change and Forestry • Conversion of Land • Consumption of Timber and Deforestation

3. Is Climate Change a Reality? • Phases • Phase I (80ies): does Climate Change occur and how much • Phase II (90ies): what are the impacts and vulnerabilities, emission reduction (mitigation) • Phase III (ongoing): adaptation • In Bangladesh awareness, concern and acceptance are growing

4. Robust Findings (from 3rd assessment report) • Adverse impacts are expected to be more in tropical and sub-tropical zones and fall disproportionately upon developing countries and poor persons within those countries • Adaptation • Has the potential t reduce adverse impacts of climate change and can often produce immediate ancillary benefit, but will not prevent all damage • Can complement mitigation in a cost-effective strategy to reduce climate change risks

5. Most Vulnerable Sectors and Adaptation Options Vulnerable Sectors • Coastal zone resources • Freshwater resources • Agriculture • Human health • Ecosystem and Biodiversity Area of Adaptation • Physical • Institutional • Social

6. Responding to Climate Change: The Basic Concepts: Politics & Negotiations

7. UNFCCC: The Climate Convention • Two Objectives: • Stabilize Greenhouse Gas (GHG) concentration in the atmosphere from anthropogenic intervention • Sustainable Development • Food Security • Ecosystem vulnerability • Key Issues are: • Rate of Change • Equity • Financial Mechanism • North-South Debate • Historical Responsibility versus Liability

8. Approaches to solutions and actions • Mitigation • Kyoto Protocol (the first limited action) • Kyoto mechanisms (CDM, JI, Emissions Trading) • Adaptation • First potential for funding • NAPA (National Action Plan for Adaption)

9. Southern Perspectives • Is there a “South”? • What is a Southern Perspective? There are many, in fact… • G77+China • NICs (potentially large emitters): China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa • High per capita emitters: South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia • OPEC • AOSIS: Threatened and extremely vulnerable • LDCs: Poorer and Vulnerable

10. Developing Countries • Development Priority • Climate Sensitive Development • Decarbonization of Production/Consumption Processes • Institutional Development & Capacity Building • Agenda Setting • Research • Negotiations • Local and (or versus?) Global Good

11. Evolution and Engagement of the South • INC (1-11) • Rio Declaration → UNFCCC • Berlin Mandate (COP-1) • Kyoto Protocol and Mechanisms • Marrakech Accord: Adaptation • Beyond Kyoto

12. North-South Dialogue • Principle of “Common but Differentiated Responsibility” • Those who committed MUST ACT • Early Beginning • Inadequate • No-hurt syndrome • KP was an Intra-North Dialogue First Commitment Period • Committed Emitters vs. Emerging Emitters • Kyoto Mechanisms: • Real GHG Reduction • Not Transfer of Carbon

13. Climate Convention Signed: But Whose Climate?Kyoto Protocol agreed: Who reduces?

14. Ethical Basis for Equity Two Concepts: • All human beings are equal (UN) • All people must have equal rights to global commons including the atmosphere and oceans (GFEP Declaration, UNCED) • Per capita entitlement concept • Subsistence vs. non-subsistence GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions (CH4, CO2) • Cooking vs. Car mileage • Right to Sustainable Development vs. Responsibility to Sustainable Development • At what rate is mass death is genocide?! • Slavery, poverty convention!

15. Issues and Concerns • Responsibility for Climate Change and Role of North • Is it new for Environmental Colonialism? • Capacity Building” Who will pay? • Role of Government • Is it an Unfair Trade: Climate Change is a new dimension • Small Countries: Low Polluters – can they benefit from Climate Change

16. Issues and Concerns • Per capita allocation • Future: • 1990 Baseline • Per capita Annex 1 emissions when reached – graduate • Is it compatible with global reduction need • Ecological Integrity • Uncertainties • In Science (IPCC) • Costing: of Actions, Non-Actions • Beyond Kyoto (Second [+] Commitment Period[s])

17. Northern and Southern views • Northern view: the South must participate • Southern view: • The North is the cause of climate change (in terms of historical emissions) • The North is not doing enough • Kyoto is in trouble • US: abandoned its commitments • EU: Slow to react • First inadequate small steps • Science (IPCC) requires rapid reduction

18. Country case studies of the South • Bangladesh: Most Vulnerable • Displacement • Ecosystem Threatened • Threatening Development • Food Security • Doing a lot • CDM and Adaptation (NAPA)

19. Country case studies of the South • Maldives • Threatened • Can do very little • Sovereignty in question • Nepal • Elevated rate of snow melt • Glacial Loss • Ecosystem threatened • Social Instability

20. Typology of Natural Disaster Likely Impact of Climate Change Increase None • Floods and inundations • Saline Intrusion • Cyclones, Typhoons, Storm Surges, Tornadoes, Hurricanes • Droughts • Pests/Locusts • Disease: Outbreaks and Vectors • Forest Fires • Landslides • Heat Waves/Cold Waves, Temperature Extremes • Sea Level Rise • Riverbank Erosion

21. Key Stressors • Temperature Increase • SLR (Sea Level Rise) • Population Shift • Carbon Concentration Increase • Sectors • Extent of Events • Intensity • Frequency • Desertification/Drought • Salt Water/Flood/Inundation • Ecosystem: Extent • Food Security - Poverty

22. A preliminary vulnerability assessment for agriculture • Identification of the crops, geographical regions, and rural populations most likely to be vulnerable • Description of the vulnerable crops, regions and groups as well as the reasons for their vulnerability • Analysis of analogous regions (e.g., warmer regions of the country) under current climate regimes to help identify implications for future response to climate change

23. Challenges ahead • Universal participation • Low emission/high development paradigm • Capacity in the South • Science to Action • Technology funding • Government/Private Sector/NGOs collaboration • Kyoto without ratification • Building on good practices

24. The Realities of Climate Change • Emerging Scientific Consensus on Climate Change (IPCC) • Ground Realities: • Increasing Awareness of communities • Increasing Extreme Weather Events • Experiences of Coping with Climate Variability • How to respond to Climate Change • All developments assumed Climate Change • Agriculture • Infrastructure • Ecosystem Management • Precipitation

25. Responses • Global: IPCC Understanding Science and Reducing Uncertainty • Climate Convention • Inter-government • Block Negotiations • Lowest Common Denominator • Big on talks, low on action • Kyoto Protocol: First Small Step • Bogged Down • South is compromising lowering bar • Global risk increasing

26. Responses • National: Create Awareness • Some Actions, More Reports • Institutionalization • Some Integration in Sectors • Private Sector: Early Initiations of CDM • Delay dampen enthusiasms • New Climate Change Marketing • Some feel threatened others look for opportunities

27. Responses • NGOs:Greater Research • Raising Concerns and Awareness • Equity Issues Highlighted • Lower Thrust on Commitment, more on Technical Options • Increasingly reaching from Environment to Development • Appreciation of Mitigation and adaptation • Southern NGOs, mostly left unsupported

28. Impact-Adaptation Relationship =  X  X  Impact Event Intensity of Event Baseline Conditions Adaptive Capacity Disaster Management