Active Safety – The Time is Now

1. Active Safety – The Time is Now www.automotivesafetycouncil.org

2. Road Fatality Data - USA vs. Europe and Japan Europe USA -22% -43% Japan • During the last decade (2001-10), both Europe and Japan set themselves targets of reducing road fatalities by 50% over a ten year period. • These programmes have been broadly successful; by 2010 Japan had achieved a 44% reduction and Europe had achieved a 43% reduction in fatalities • During this period fatalities in the USA continued to climb, peaking in 2005 and declining by 22% overall in 2010 • Europe now in second decade of plan for aggressive reduction of road fatalities (another 50% cut by 2020) -44% USA falling behind Europe & Japan in road safety improvements 2

3. Vehicle Trends - CAFE Regulations & Downsizing • New CAFE regulations will drive significant vehicle down-sizing and “light-weighting” to achieve fuel economy requirements • 2011 IIHS accident data shows that “occupants of the smallest and/ or lightest vehicles still have death rates about twice as high as occupants of the largest and/ or heaviest vehicles” • 2011 DOE analysis finds that reducing vehicle mass by 100 lbs with the same footprint would increase fatality risk per vehicle mile travelled by 1.43% for lighter than average cars and 0.52% for lighter than average light-duty trucks • Fitment of active safety technology can help to reduce the safety impact of vehicle downsizing/ light-weighting.For example, fitting ESC to a lighter car is expected to reduce its fatality risk by ~10%. • passenger car fleet average weight = 3106 lbs • light truck fleet average weight = 4594 lbs Active safety fitment can offset the safety risks of “down-sizing” 3

4. NHTSA Accident Cause Data • Four crash types (run-off-the-road, rear-end, lane change, and crossing path) account for ~85 % of all crashes and ~82% of the total maximum AIS (MAIS) 3+ injuries. (2004 FARS data). • Run-off-the road and crossing path account for ~55% of fatal crashes; rear end crashes are the single largest group of crashes. NHTSA accident analysis has identified most common fatal accident types 4

5. Technologies Identified to Address These Accident Causes Existing technologies that address these fatality types • Stability Control (Electronic Stability Control) • Lane Departure Avoidance • Rear-End Collision Avoidance • Blind Spot Detection 5

6. NHTSA Vehicle Safety Rulemaking and Research Priority Plan 2011-2013 Priority Active Safety programs and projects include: • Forward Collision Avoidance and Mitigation (Next Milestone: Agency decision in 2011) • Lane Departure Prevention (Next Milestone: Agency decision in 2011) • Rear Visibility of Vehicles (Next Milestone: Final Rule: 2011 (per statute 2/28/2011)) Congressional Requirements: The Cameron Gulbransen Kids Transportation Safety Act of 2007 Also under investigation in the longer term: • Blind Spot Detection (Next Milestone: Agency decision in 2013) • Pedestrian Detection (Next Milestone: Agency decision in 2013) 6

7. Potential Benefits of Advanced Technologies have been Identified by NHTSA The ACAT paper presents the application and results of the Safety Impact Methodology for four different crash avoidance technologies including: Advanced Collision Mitigation Braking System by Honda, Lane Departure Warning by Volvo-Ford, Pre-collision Safety System by Toyota, and Backing Crash Countermeasures by General Motors PCS: While safety benefit estimates were developed by Team 3, the final report was still being reviewed at the time of this printing. Therefore these results are not published here but will be published in the final report for this ACAT project 7

8. Latest IIHS Estimated Potential Benefits of Key Active Safety Technologies (May 2010) Report estimates number of annual crashes potentially prevented or mitigated by system type: • FORWARD COLLISION WARNING WITH AUTOMATIC BRAKING • (1,165,000 relevant; 879 fatal, 66,000 injury) • LANE DEPARTURE WARNING • (179,000 relevant; 7,529 fatal, 37,000 injury) • BLIND SPOT DETECTION • (395,000 relevant; 393 fatal, 20,000 injury) • ADAPTIVE HEADLIGHTS • (142,000 relevant; 2,484 fatal, 29,000 injury) • These four technologies could prevent or mitigate up to 32% of all accidents including 31% of fatal crashes and 21% of non-fatal injury crashes. • An additional 4,754 fatal crashes and 80,000 non-fatal injury crashes could be prevented or mitigated each year by systems that can detect pedestrians or bicyclists. • Other IIHS analysis indicates that these technologies could prevent or mitigate more than 25% of large truck crashes including 33% of non-fatal injury crashes and ~20% of fatal crashes if all trucks had them, equating to 107,000 accidents including 12,000 non-fatal and 835 fatal crashes. IIHS estimated potential benefits of key active safety technologies 8

9. HLDI Summary Report on Volvo XC60 (July 2011) • XC60 and other Volvos fitted with “City Safety” as standard, a low-speed automatic emergency braking system designed to prevent or mitigate low speed (<20mph) vehicle-to-vehicle collisions. • Some vehicles also fitted with optional radar + camera system for higher speed Automatic Emergency Braking • HLDI analysed claims data from 10,000 insured years of MY2010 XC60 data and compared claims performance against other 2010MY midsize luxury SUVs and other Volvos as the control groups. • Compared to other midsize SUVs, • 3rd party property damage claims frequency fell 27% • Injury claim frequency fell 51% • Insured vehicle collision claim frequency fell 22% • Compared to other Volvos, • 3rd party property damage claims frequency fell 19% • Injury claim frequency fell 49% • Insured vehicle collision claim frequency fell 17% Standard: City Safety Sensor Optional: AEB Camera + Radar System HLDI study shows significant benefits of standard-fit Automatic Braking System 9

10. Estimated Active Safety Benefits in Similar Sized Market: European eSafety Initiative Paper, 2009 ESC: • “ESC could save yearly up to 4000 lives and 100,000 injuries in Europe alone” • Cost-benefit analysis by the Institute for Transport Economics, University of Cologne indicated that for every €1 invested in ESC society would save between €3.5 and €5.8, a net benefit of €10 billion to €16 billion per annum for full ESC penetration rate in Europe. Collision Warning and Emergency Braking Systems: • “28% less rear-end collisions with personal injury” • Potential EU annual fatalities avoided with advanced AEB systems: 463-1,695 in the short term with existing technologies, 2,526-9,264 longer term with more advanced technologies and wider adoption Blind Spot Monitoring: • “8% less accidents when changing lanes on motorways” • It is estimated that in Europe the system could save approximately 975 lives each year and avoid 2,100 injuries if all cars were equipped with the system. Lane Support Systems: • “15% less deaths on European roads” • The European Commission eIMPACT project estimated that if all EU vehicles were equipped with Lane Keep Assist, annual deaths would decrease by 15% and injuries by 8.9%, equating to 6,300 lives saved each year. 10

11. U.S. Consumer Market Trends: ADAS Features are Desired Question: Which safety features are most desirable ? • Over seven out of ten people noted • driver warnings in driving situations are most preferred. • Map based adaptive cruise control and • map based lane guidance were a distant second and third, respectively. Source: Frost & Sullivan February 2011 11

12. U.S. Consumer Market Trends: ADAS Features are Desired • Question: Driver warning safety features: • Which safety features are most desirable ? • Most preferred features • Blind spot detection, rear view camera, night vision and forward collision warning

13. Active Safety can Drive Further Improvements in Road Safety We should set a national safety goal of 50% reduction of fatalities / injuries over 10 years • ESC is the first major step in introducing active safety to consumers, and is expected to reduce US fatalities by 5,300-9,600 per year when fully implemented across the vehicle fleet. • Other advanced technologies have been identified with the potential to significantly reduce US road fatalities including Lane Departure Warning, Forward Collision Warning, Automatic Emergency Braking, Blind Spot Detection, and adaptive headlights. • Other countries have set and largely achieved national safety goals • Seat belt laws, Motorcycle ABS, roundabouts, education and speed limits can add additional fatality / injury reductions. 13

14. Proposed 10 Year Road Safety Roadmap -50% • An objective of reducing road fatalities 50% over the next 10 years could bring annual fatalities down to approximately 15,000 per year from 2010’s total of 32,788 or an estimate of 31,000 in 2012 • Key active safety technologies have the potential to assist NHTSA in achieving this goal • ESC • Lane Departure Warning • Automatic Emergency Braking • Adaptive Lighting • Side and Rear View Assist • and should an accident occur..... • Advanced Automatic Crash Notification (AACN) An “umbrella” road safety target could be established 14

15. Road Safety Evolution Model 15

16. Some Technologies Capable of Delivering the Roadmap..... Current trend estimate ESC LDW/LKAS Ad. Lights AACN AEB Side/ Rear Assist -50% target • Estimated potential benefits of key safety technologies in terms of annual fatality reduction: • ESC: - 7,500/ year • Lane Departure Warning: - 7,500/ year • Adaptive Lighting: - 2,500/ year • AACN: - 1,500/ year • Automatic Emergency Braking: - 1,000/ year • Side/Rear View Assist: - 400/ year • Total Potential Benefit (full fleet): -20,400/ year • “Current trend” assumes fatalities continue to fall by ~900/ year as recent safety technologies (e.g. side airbags) propagate in the fleet • ESC could reduce 2022 fatalities by >4000 lives to ~18,000/ year • DAS technologies could reduce 2022 fatalities by a further ~4500 lives to 13,500/ year (56% reduction from 2012 forecast) and save a total of 18,000 lives over the next 10 years if mandated by 2016 Within 10 years, these technologies could enable annual fatalities to be reduced below 15,000/ year 16

17. Active Safety – The Time is Now • We have the technology • The results are promising • We need to set a National Safety Goal • We need to reduce fatalities / injuries The Time is Now 17 www.automotivesafetycouncil.org