Science Processes and Non-Science Processes in Creating Climate Information

1. Science Processes and Non-Science Processes in Creating Climate Information Mike Harrison Climate-Insight Senior Research Associate, OUCE, Oxford University

2. The Objective • To deliver the best attainable climate information • To deliver information complete with the best attainable potential error information • To deliver information in the form most suitable for users to blend into their decision making processes

3. The Regional Climate Outlook Forum (RCOF)Process

4. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Process

5. The Science Issues of Uncertainty

6. The Non-Science or Cognitive Issues of Uncertainty

7. The National Communication/NAPA Process – and other reports

8. Recent seasonal forecast for Africa from the IRI

9. Quantitatively calibrated levels of confidence according to the IPCC

10. Statements from the SPM of the IPCC AR4 SYR There is medium confidence that other effects of regional climate change on natural and human environments are emerging, although many are difficult to discern due to adaptation and non-climatic drivers. There is medium confidence that approximately 20 to 30% of species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction.

11. Example from a European organisation’s report for a developing country The findings, … , illustrate the dramatic effects of climate change in …. However, they also show that the impacts for the different regions vary widely: ␣ Increase in annual average temperature by 1.1°C by 2030. The south of the country will be affected to a far greater extent than the north (1.6°C and 0.9°C respectively) ␣ The number and intensity of droughts will increase ␣ A 28% decline in …’s water resources by 2030. The loss of groundwater reserves in particular will become a problem ␣ 20% loss in arable cropland by 2030 ␣ 50% loss of non-irrigated forested areas in southern … ␣ Drastically increased risk of forest fires ␣ Substantial increase in the vulnerability of ecosystems

12. From a NAPA ␣ Increasedwater scarcityand reduced water quality – leading to increased hardship on rural livelihoods; ␣ Increased droughtfrequency, increased temperatures, and changes in precipitation patterns – leading to degradation of agricultural lands, soilsand terraces; ␣ Deterioration of habitats and biodiversity –leadingto expansion of desertification; ␣ Reduced agricultural productivity – leading to increased food insecurity and reduced income generating activities; ␣ Increased sea levels – leading to deterioration of wetlands, coastal mangrove migration, erosion, infrastructure damage, and seawater groundwater intrusion; ␣ Increased climatic variability – leading to the possibility of spread and growth of vector borne and water borne diseases; and ␣ Impacts oncoastalzones– leading to a loss of tourism tothe activity due to sea level rise including loss of beaches

13. A Key Humanitarian Challenge for Climate Scientists • Be honest and fully open in delivering information