How is Foreign Policy Made?

1. Rational Model • Actions are chosen by the national government to maximize attainment of state’s objectives. • Assumptions: State is a unitary, rational actor; has a clear set of goals; determines policy alternatives; weighs those rationally in terms of cost and benefit; selects the action that produces the best outcome at the least cost. • Often most clearly evident in crisis decision-making at this highest levels with few actors taking part. • Fits with a realist conception of international relations, just one national interest, state can act to achieve. How is Foreign Policy Made?

2. Bureaucratic/Organizational Model • A lot of decisions may not be made at the highest level by “the decider.” • May be made by departments or ministries down the line. • Bureaucratic model stresses sub-group bargaining, “where you stand is where you sit.” But also difficulties of coordinating across agencies (9/11). • Organizational model stresses standard operating procedures (SOPs Cuban missile crisis), organizational cultures (worldviews, educations, and interests of bureaucrats in determining priorities), “satisficing” (adequate rather than optimal). • Often most clear in non-crisis decision-making when time is relatively elastic. • Fits well with a liberal perspective of international relations where nation is a field not a solitary unit. How is Foreign Policy Made?

3. Pluralist Model • Policies are outputs of domestic bargaining among many constituencies (public, interest groups, mass movements, MNCs) • Different from bureaucratic model: not just Agriculture v. Trade. • How do groups affect: public education/ads, media events, lobbying (leg/exec), protests, organize across national boundaries. • More in keeping with a liberal vision, but realists wouldn’t deny that these processes occur. How is Foreign Policy Made?

4. Psychological/Psychoanalytic Model • Focuses on individual actors’ formative experiences, predilections. • Mao became a revolutionary because he hated his father . . . • Roosevelt included China in the P-5 because he fancied he and his family had a special relationship with the country . . . • Bush invaded Iraq because Saddam Hussein tried to kill his Daddy. • Bush moralism, Christianity “Axis of evil.” How is Foreign Policy Made?

5. Some combination of the models: • Start with a rational model. What are my country’s goals? How can I achieve them? • Be embedded in a realistic understanding of your government, your position in the government, and your country’s politics. How do you decide what positions your country should take?

6. In addition to the rational model, you should take into account: • bureaucratic rivalries (who gets a say in your policy area?), • constitutional divisions of power over foreign policy (matters more in some countries than others), • Nature of your political system (democratic, authoritarian, presidential, parliamentary—majority or coalition?) • policy precedent (matters more in some countries than others), • politicians’ interests, • interest groups (more in some than others) • public opinion in general (more in some than others), • culture/worldview of decision-makers and their stake in the issue. How do you decide what positions your country should take?

7. Styles, cultures, individuals can matter a great deal, varies by system. • If want to understand Zimbabwe, have to understand predilections of Mugabe. • Countries have styles too: US style: deprecation of old power politics, sense of democratic destiny, interaction of moralism/realism. Our style at odds with perception of our style! • Discuss other countries’ styles: China, UK, India, Germany • Also, politicians have styles and lenses. Bush: good v. evil. Iraq bad due to father’s earlier experience, must be involved in 9/11. • Diplomat’s education/style: present generation Cold War trained, focus on Russia, big powers, might miss new threats and opportunities. On Styles, Cultures, and Worldviews