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KMB Presentation: RCMP By: Paul Ripsky, Joe Vaccaro 4/21/2009

KMB Presentation: RCMP By: Paul Ripsky, Joe Vaccaro 4/21/2009. Current Position and Recommendation. Purchased 300 shares of KMB on April 20th, 2005 at $63.91/share Purchased an additional 100 shares on November 30 th , 2008 at $56.29/share Currently own 400 shares at $49.92/share (4/20/09)

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KMB Presentation: RCMP By: Paul Ripsky, Joe Vaccaro 4/21/2009

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  1. KMB Presentation: RCMP By: Paul Ripsky, Joe Vaccaro 4/21/2009

  2. Current Position and Recommendation • Purchased 300 shares of KMB on April 20th, 2005 at $63.91/share • Purchased an additional 100 shares on November 30th, 2008 at $56.29/share • Currently own 400 shares at $49.92/share (4/20/09) • Recommendation : HOLD

  3. Company Overview • Kimberly-Clark Corporation engages in the manufacture and marketing of health and hygiene products worldwide • Founded in 1872, headquarters in Dallas, TX • Nearly 53,000 employees • Operations in 35 countries • Consumers in more than 150 countries worldwide • Over ¼ of the world’s population uses Kimberly-Clarks products everyday • The number 1 or 2 market leader in over 80 countries

  4. Business Segments • Personal Care • Disposable diapers, training and youth pants, and swim pants; baby wipes; and feminine products • Consumer Tissue • Facial and bathroom tissue, paper towels, napkins, and related products for household use

  5. Business Segments • K-C Professional & Other • Facial and bathroom tissue, paper towels, napkins, wipers and various safety products for the away-from-home marketplace

  6. Business Segments • Health Care • Surgical gowns, drapes, infection control products, sterilization wrap, disposable face masks and exam gloves, respiratory products, and other disposable medical products

  7. Product Profile *Kimberly Clark 2008 Annual report

  8. Macroeconomic Overview • 2008 was a challenging year with the unprecedented volatility within the market: • Slowdown in world economies • Large swings in commodity prices • Exchange Rates • Lack in the credit markets • Historically the consumer staples industry has been defensive during times of recession

  9. Macroeconomic Overview Commodity Outlook • Kraft pulp and petroleum based commodities are the main raw materials used in the manufacturing process • Majority of raw materials purchased from third parties • 8% of pulp is produced internally • Derivative products haven’t been used to mitigate these risks

  10. NBSK Pulp Index $900 800 700 600 500 400

  11. CME Wood Pulp Futures

  12. Management Assessment • Maintained a solid financial position throughout the economic downturn • Committed to the manufacturing, researching and disposing of products in an environmentally safe way • Concentrates on the needs of consumers • Revamping supply chain network

  13. Management Assessment • Maintained & Developed Product Segments • Increased R&D to support long-term growth • Expansion within K-C Professional & Healthcare • Global Expansion • Hit opportunities within Emerging Markets • Concentrating on BRICIT Countries

  14. SWOT Analysis

  15. Industry Outlook Consumer Staples/Personal Products • Competitive Factors : • Brand recognition and loyalty, product innovation, quality and performance, and marketing and distribution capabilities • Industry consolidation could lead to pricing pressure • Substantial development and marketing costs when introducing and improving products • Moderate Bargaining power of buyers • Net sales to Wal-Mart was approximately 14% in 2008

  16. Relative Valuation: Comps

  17. Historical Stock Price (One year)

  18. Recent Trends

  19. Recent Trends (cont) • Cash Flow Pattern Indicates Mature Company

  20. Balance Sheet FAQs

  21. DuPont Analysis

  22. WACC • Adjusted WACC based on 10% cost of Equity

  23. Growth Estimates

  24. DCF Analysis • Sensitivity Analysis Reveals Price Range of $48 to $61

  25. Dividend Growth Model

  26. Dividend Growth Model (cont) • Sensitivity Analysis $41 ~ $62 for Constant Growth • Sensitivity Analysis $46 ~ $57 for Two Step Model

  27. Correlation Matrix

  28. Recommendation • Purchased 300 shares of KMB on April 20th, 2005 at $63.91/share • Purchased an additional 100 shares on November 30th, 2008 at $56.29/share • Currently own 400 shares at $49.92/share (4/20/09) • Recommendation: HOLD our current position of 400 shares • Evaluation shows fair value between $46-57 • Current Market price $49.92 (4/20/09)

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