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SCS-002 Standards Committee Operating Under ANSI Process

SCS-002-1 Standardization of Climate Metrics for Greenhouse Gases and Particulates Based on Life-Cycle Impact Assessment by Stanley P. Rhodes, Ph.D. Scientific Certification Systems. SCS-002 Standards Committee Operating Under ANSI Process. • Armstrong World Industries

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SCS-002 Standards Committee Operating Under ANSI Process

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  1. SCS-002-1 Standardization of Climate Metrics for Greenhouse Gases and ParticulatesBased on Life-Cycle Impact Assessment by Stanley P. Rhodes, Ph.D.Scientific Certification Systems

  2. SCS-002 Standards Committee Operating Under ANSI Process • • Armstrong World Industries • • Berkeley Analytical Associates, LLC • • BIFMA • • California Department of General Services • • California Integrated Waste Management Board • • City of San Francisco • • Collaborative for High Performance Schools (CHPS) • • Resilient Flooring Association • • HNI Corporation • • US EPA • • Pacific Gas & Electric • • Shaw Industries, Inc. • • Steel Industry • • US Department of Energy

  3. SCS-002 LCIA FrameworkConsistent with ISO-14044 Mandatory Phases Life-Cycle Scoping addresses all environmental and human health issues and sets appropriate boundary conditions. Life-Cycle Inventory measures system inputs and outputs. It is the initial phase of assessment only, and should not be used for comparative assertions. Life-Cycle Impact Assessment connects LCI and direct land use to human health and environmental impacts, and is the basis of comparative assertions. Goal & scope definition Inventory analysis Impact assessment Optional Phase Life Cycle Interpretation involves subjective weighting and ranking

  4. Standard Requires the Use of Recognized LCA Models The reference flow of this unit operation is the functional unit of the entire system (name underlined)

  5. Standard Requires the Use of Recognized LCA Models Click

  6. SCS-002 Life Cycle Impact Groups Specific Issue Impact Groups Natural Resource Depletion Habitats/Key Species Loss Human Health/Environmental Emission Levels Human Health Exposure Levels Climate Change Impact Groups Global Climate Impacts Regional Climate Impacts •  Arctic •  Antarctic

  7. Required Impact Category Indicators

  8. Creeping Death Zones — Eutrophication Kills All Sea Life The dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico is largely caused by agricultural run-off from the Mississippi River. Increases have been most pronounced since the increase in biofuel production.

  9. Mandatory LCIA Steps Classification Assign life-cycle inventory results — emissions, wastes, resource depletion — to impact categories according to their potential environmental/human health endpoints. Characterization Determine the environmental relevance of life-cycle inventory results, based on spatial/temporal differentiation and intensity of midpoints/endpoints, utilizing characterization factors (SCF and ECFs). Impact Profile The output of the assessment provides a complete quantified set impact indicators.

  10. Greenhouse gases Acidification Ecotoxic chemical (soil/water) Ground level ozone Calculating Indicators: Classification Connecting Inventory Results to Impact Categories

  11. Establishing the Regional Acidification Biophysical Impact Pathway

  12. Required LCIA Modeling: Establishing Stressor-Effects Network Regional Acidification Node 3 Indicator: Acidification Loading = Fraction of wet deposition of acid emissions in areas of exceedance of critical load

  13. Climate Change Stressor-Effects Network Description Increases in global/regional GHG emissions along with continuous aerosol emissions Intensification of accumulated global / regional GHG loading (CO2, CH4), plus tropospheric ozone & fine carbon particulates loading (soot), minus aerosols • Intensification of net global RF and net RF in regional climate zones based on various GHG loadings, minus net cooling from tropospheric aerosols Increases in GMT, and increases in RMTs associated with climate changes in regional climate zones Exceedance of threshold (EOT) – based on the GMT threshold and regional climate zone thresholds Catastrophic global and regional climate changes Impacts to human health and the environment on a global and regional basis. Strength of Linkage Stressor - strong Endpoint - none • Stressor - strong • Endpoint –weak • Stressor - strong • Endpoint - strong • Stressor - strong • Endpoint - strong • Stressor - strong • Endpoint – strong • Stressor - moderate • Endpoint - strong • Stressor - moderate • Endpoint – strong Node Node 1 (stressor) Node 2 (intensification of midpoints) Node 3 (intensification of midpoints) Node 4 (intensification of midpoints) Node 5 (Exceedance of threshold midpoints) Node 6 (Post threshold midpoints) Node 7 (Post threshold multiple endpoints)

  14. Molecular Structures of Greenhouse Pollutants Soot Small Carbon Particles

  15. Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) Established by the IPCC • GWPs represents an index of the amortized radiative forcing over time of various greenhouse pollutants compared to an equivalent tonne of CO2. • The IPCC has established GWP values for Kyoto-listed GHG pollutants as a function of various selected time horizons: 20, 100 and 500 years. • SCS-002-1 has extrapolated the IPCC results to establish GWP values for the annual time horizon and added 20-year time horizon GWPs for soot, tropospheric ozone and aerosols.

  16. Key Assumption Behind Climate Metrics: The Selection of the Time Horizon CO2 & other minor long-lived GHGs Fraction Remaining in Atmosphere 0 0.5 1.0 Methane Soot, TO 1 year 20 years 100 years (Kyoto) Time Horizon

  17. Politics Over Science

  18. Increases in Greenhouse Gas Loadings are directly linked to increased Radiative Forcing. The increase in Radiative Forcing is being observed both globally and regionally … which then is linked to the increase in Global Mean Temperature. GMT Tipping Point Key Impact Nodes for Stressor-Effect Network Modeling

  19. Emissions Can Cause Both Positive and Negative Radiative Forcing

  20. Required Characterization ofRadiative Forcing/Cooling Isopleths

  21. Node 4: Justification for Separate Stressor-Effects Network for the Arctic Region

  22. Tropospheric Ozone: The Major Contributor to Regional Arctic Warming

  23. Rapid Loss of the Perennial Arctic Ice Sheet 2004-2005 Max. TO concentration strongly correlated to area of rapid loss of Perennial Ice

  24. Soot, Methane, Tropospheric Ozone: 80% of the Arctic Warming Justification for excluding CO2 fromArctic Stressor-Effects Network

  25. New Major Study Findings (April 2009)Emphasize Role of Soot, Tropospheric Ozoneand Methane in Arctic Warming The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP) cautions that factors like soot, ozone and methane may now be contributing to the warming of the Arctic and other parts of the world as much as carbon dioxide. The amount of black carbon in the atmosphere, due to agricultural burning, forest fires and inefficient diesel engines, creates a haze that absorbs sunlight, warms and eventually deposits onto snow. The darkening of the frozen surface then causes more sunlight to be absorbed, reducing the snow’s ability to reflect sunlight back into space. "The principal (climate change) problem is carbon dioxide, but a new understanding is emerging of soot," said Nobel peace prize-winner and former U.S. Vice President Al Gore in commenting on the report.

  26. Western Antarctica surface temperature anomaly since 1957

  27. Brazilian Tropospheric Ozone is theKey GHG Pollutant of Antarctica

  28. Brazilian Tropospheric Ozone Plume

  29. Global Carbon Black (Soot) Emissions1875-2000

  30. Soot: The Poor and Yellow Flames Soot is currently 18% of total global heat (RF). 2 billion more poor are expected in the next 20 years.

  31. LCIA Nodal Characterization

  32. Node 2: 2010 Annual GHG Loadings 700 676 660 600 500 400 Billion Tonnes CO2 eq. 300 200 Livestock 22 billion tons 100 58 34 3.5 N20 C02 CH4 Soot TO

  33. Current Legacy CO2 and Methane Loading Compared to 1000-year Baseline 1000 years

  34. Adding Legacy Emissions of CO2 and Methane to Annual GHG Loadings (Node 3) 34 1400 58 1200 Billion Tonnes CO2 eq. 676 660 3.5 214 N20 C02 CH4 Soot TO

  35. Accumulated CO2 Loading isLeveling Off Over the Next 20 Years Accumulated greenhouse gases (A-GHG) over next 20 years Assumes 34 billion tonnes in 2010, increasing 3% per year Billion Tonnes CO2

  36. Secondary Impacts from CO2: Oceanic Acidification is Destroying the World’s Remaining Coral Reefs

  37. 2030:Shorter-Lived GHG Pollutants Will ConstituteMore Than 75% of Total Warming Loading 1600 34 1400 1200 Billion Tonnes CO2 eq. 800 3.5 214 N20 C02 CH4 Soot TO BAU Projections, Uncertainty not determined

  38. Applying LCIA GHG Metrics to Assessment of New Power System Deployment • Example 1. Insertion of 556 MW IGCC Unit with Carbon Dioxide Capture Sequestration (CCS) into the SERC Regional Grid • Example 2. Insertion of 2300 MW Nuclear Unit into SERC Regional Grid

  39. LCIA Modeling: IGCC-CCS Unit • Fuel Source: Illinois # 6 Coal • Capacity: 556-MWe net • Total Sequestered CO2: 453,200 tonnes Grid Electricity Diesel Oil Prod (Cum.) Coal mining and cleaning Rail Transport of Coal CO2 Transport Pipeline Location Coal Mining and Cleaning Site Power Plant Site No Code CO2 Pipeline 160 km IGCC Power Plant with CO2 Capture CO2 storage Electricity Distribution to End User

  40. Methane Loadings from Regional Mines:Up to 86% of Total GHG Loading of IGCC Unit Current Cap and Trade GHG metrics do not account for this mining-related methane loading.

  41. The Role of Aerosols in Climate Dynamics Is Not Well Understood

  42. Old Coal PlantsHidden Trade-offs from Aerosol Emissions: Unwanted Winter/Fall/Spring Cooling Total Avoided Emissions - tons Unwanted Fall Cooling Unwanted Winter/Spring Cooling Useful Summer Cooling

  43. Comparing Current Cap & Trade Metrics to LCIA GHG Metrics Elimination of winter aerosols alone would provide greater unrealized benefits for the SERC than the CO2 reductions recognized under proposed Cap and Trade metrics.

  44. The Case for Transitioning from Current GHG Metrics to LCIA GHG Metrics for Cap & Trade Programs • Current metrics rely upon the 100-year time horizon. • Current GHG metrics overlook 95% of annual mitigation potential opportunities. • Cap & trade funds based on current GHG metrics will provide only marginal mitigation of CO2 while failing to seize on opportunities to mitigate other key GHGs and GHPs.

  45. July 14 Workshop —Objectives • Inform major stakeholders about new GHG metrics. • Validate and refine the current SCS-002-1draft standard for comment. • Prepare to help shape the U.S. position for Copenhagen summit in December 2009. • Provide basis for adjustments to the current proposed U.S. Cap & Trade legislation. Sign up at www.SCScertified.com

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