Shem O. Wandiga , Maggie Opondo, Dan Olago,gilbert O.Ouma, Daniel Mbuvi and Martin Kamwanza

1. Increasing Community Resilience to Drought in Makueni District Project Site“Climate Change and Variability Impacts” Shem O. Wandiga, Maggie Opondo, Dan Olago,gilbert O.Ouma, Daniel Mbuvi and Martin Kamwanza Centre for Science and Technology Innovations (A UNESCO Associated Centre) Utalii House, Utalii Street 8th Floor, Room 802 P.O. Box 42792-00100, Nairobi, Kenya E-mail: sowandiga@iconnect.co.ke A paper presented at the CHEMRAWN XII Stellenbosch 2007

2. Causes El Niño / LA Niña Climate related Hazards / ExposuresDROUGHTS AND FLOODS COMON IN AFRICA Hot & cold spells Droughts River basin flooding Tropical cyclones Heavy precipitations (rain or snow) Storm surges Ice Storms Storm (winds) Dust storms Wildland fires & haze Hail&Lightning Mud & landslides Flash floods Avalanches Tornadoes

3. Floods often follow or precede droughts

4. Many socio-economic sectors in Africa areClimate-sensitive including agriculture, water resources, food security, health, and livelihoods.

5. THE CROPS DRIED UP DUE TO DROUGHT

6. AFRICA IS THE MOST VULNERABLE CONTINENT OF THE GLOBE Africa will experience severe impacts due to climate change and climate variability Africa has the lowest capacity to Adapt to Projected Climate Change AFRICA IS THE MOST VULNERABLE CONTINENT OF THE GLOBE + =

7. Kenya Pilot Project Objectives • To enhance communities’ effective use seasonal weather and climate information to increase production • To improve access to high quality planting seeds • To inform the farmers on appropriate agronomic practices for the identified crop verities, based on seasonal weather and climate forecasts • To increase sources of high quality water for domestic use and irrigation and reduce distances to these sources • To create opportunities for economic diversification • To enhance provision of alternative livelihoods • To establish a database (e.g. developing spatial representation (mapping) of social-economic information in the project area) • These are to be achieved through partnership with the ongoing Arid Lands Resource Management Project activities on drought management

8. Science - Policy Interface • Improving local adaptive strategies in the context of: • Improving existing livelihood systems • Long term sustainable development • This is being done through: • Introduction of technologies (science) to enhance productivity of existing livelihood systems • Creation of new sustainable opportunities (diversification) • Recommendation of policies that reinforced the livelihood systems; Policies that have direct positive impacts on sustainable livelihoods

9. The Project’s Conceptual Framework POLICY • Policy Component: • - Recommendations for policy change • Policy Component: • Selection of policy/policies to influence • Policy needs assessment • Up-scaling Component: • Use of tools for policy integration • Outreach and engagement • Down-scaling Component: • Using policy needs to design field test Down- Scaling Up- Scaling • Field Demonstration Component: • Integrated vulnerability assessment • Site selection • Design and implement intervention • Training FIELD TESTING • Field Demonstration Component: • Collection of lessons learned

10. Steps to taken to inform Policy on project activities Policy review • Key policies (Poverty Reduction Strategy, Sustainable Development, Disaster Risk Reduction, Natural Resource Management) • Gaps in the current policies identified • Areas that need to be made explicit in the current policies highlighted • Areas that need re-orientation indicated • The draft Policies on National Disaster Management and Sustainable Development of ASALs have been revised to include climate change and Tsunami issues

11. Water Harvesting and Mining • The main hazard that affects the Sakai Division of the Makueni District is drought. • For the last ten years droughts have been prolonged, frequent and severe and have had serious negative effects on the main livelihood, mixed farming, where crop production is the dominant activity. • The project has constructed sand dams and wells • Sand dams have been a success in neighbouring Kitui District • in 10 years time, 65,000 people have better access to water through low cost measure at an investment of about 35 USD per capita. • The increased water availability results in higher farm yields, as well as for irrigated and non-irrigated crops. • The average income of farmers living near dams rose from near zero to Ksh. 9,000 (Lasage et al., 2006, draft paper).

12. Rainfall in eastern Africa • Observed annual rainfall anomalies indicate that there are possible increases in precipitation in east Africa, contrasted with reduced precipitation for southern Africa in the next 100 years Observed annual rainfall anomalies for three African regions, 1900-1998, and model-simulated anomalies for 2000-2099. Model anomalies are for 10 model simulations derived from seven DDC GCM experiments; the four HadCM2 simulations are the dashed curves. All anomalies are expressed with respect to observed or model-simulated 1961-1990 average rainfall. Model curves are extracted directly from GCM experiments. Smooth curves result from applying a 20-year Gaussian filter (Hulme et al., 2001).

13. Freshwater resources • The major effects of climate change on African water systems will be through changes in the hydrological cycle, the balance of temperature, and rainfall (IPCC 2001). • Non-climatic changes such as water policy and management practice may have significant effects. • Many African countries are today experiencing water stress, and it is projected that many more will shift from a water surplus state to a water scarce state by 2025 due to changes in population alone (IPCC 2001).

14. District livelihood zones Makueni district comprises of the following livelihood zones • i) Mixed Agriculture zone:- Kilungu, Kilome, Kaiti and Mbooni divisions • ii) Agro-pastoral zone I :- Kisau, Matiliku, Mbitini, Kasikeu, Wote, Kee and Tulimani divisions • iii) Agro-pastoral zone II :- Nguu, Kathonzweni, Kalawa, Makindu, Kibwezi and M/Andei divisions

15. Social economic factors • Majority are Christians with a smaller number who are traditional believers of less than 5% with a population of 5065 persons. • 7-9 is the household population with more females than men. • 80% of the community members depend on farm products and livestock sales for their source of income. • Poverty levels are below 40.2% compared to other zones. • The major economic activities done is farming, livestock keeping and small-scale trading in the nearby market centres.

16. Climate and rainfall reliability amounts and distribution Climate and rainfall The area has two seasons short rains (October – December ) and long rains ( march – may) does not do well. The area has an average precipitation of 971.9mm of rainfall for the last 5 years. The rainfall gotten cannot sustain a crop to its maturity levels(ie. Maize and beans-hybrids. Crops grown in the zone Food crops: maize, beans, cowpeas, pigeon peas, green grams, and tubers cassavas and sweet potatoes.) Traditional foods such asmillets, (pearl millets, sorghum and finger millets are not commonly grown. There's a cultural beliefs associated to these foods. the production given per a piece of acre is less than 4bags of 90kg (maize) and 2 debes of beans. Cash crops Cotton is the source of income for the area though it is not of good quality.

17. Identification of Self-Help and “Merry-Go Round” Groups • Participation in, and ownership of project by local communities vital if it is to be sustained beyond the lifecycle of the project and also for it to have the potential of being replicated in other ASAL districts • Self-help and “merry-go-round” groups identified as one of the key entry points in entrenching ownership and sustainability of project • Over 60 self helps groups in Sakai sub-location and usual rivalries among Community based-organization (CBOs) also exists

18. Selection Criteria • Therefore process by which groups are selected must be done in participatory and democratic manner • Social Activities Group: • socio-economic expert • two officials from the Dept. of Social Services • Asst. chief of Sakai Sub-Location • 3 men and two women reps of Sakai farmer groups • came up with a criteria of identification and selection of groups as follows:

19. Selection Criteria • Groups Business-oriented – should have been engaged or engaging in money-related activities such as a revolving credit fund • Thus welfare groups not to be considered • History – the group should have been in existence for a period of at least two years

20. Selection Criteria • Performance – the groups should have financial accountability, democratically elected officials and tangible outputs justifying their existence • Groups should be registered with the Department of Social Services and renewed their certificates to date • Groups should have an agricultural component in their activities • Selection process must be participatory, transparent and democratic

21. Implementation • Based on this criteria the Department of Social Services conducted an assessment of the existing self-help groups in the five villages (9-13th Oct 2006) • The Divisional Community Development Assistant (CDA) identified a list of qualified groups from each of 5 villages • The second round of selection involved participatory meeting with representatives from these groups in each of the five villages and agree on a final list • List of 10 groups (2 from each of 5 villages) from where 5 groups will be selected for the project

22. Groups’ Selection Scoring Format • Meetings (8 marks) • Licence renewal (6 marks) • Activeness of group (10 marks) • By-laws on penalties (6 marks) • Frequency of banking activities (4 marks) • By-laws on loaning and records of debtors (3 marks) • Repayment and defaulters (6 marks) • Supply and demand rate of loans (6 marks) • Income generating activities (4 marks) • Bank statements (6 marks) • Acreage under soil conservation strategies (2marks per acre) • Acreage under Manure (2marks per acre) • Irrigation (6 marks) • Monitoring tools (4 marks)

23. Enhancing rain fed agriculture • Strengthening and diversifying production systems through the promotion of rainwater harvesting technologies, agro-forestry systems for soil and water conservation, minimum tillage to conserve soil moisture, re-vegetation of degraded areas and increased agricultural production using locally available manure and other farm inputs

24. Implementation • The implementation of the field activities is undertaken in partnership with the Arid lands Resource Management Project and the Ministry of Agriculture Crop development Extension service • The District Crop Development Officer and the Drought Monitoring Officer (DMO) provide supervisory services to the Divisional agriculture extension officers based at the division who work with the participating farmers on the day-to-day basis

25. Improving access to quality planting seeds To conduct field demonstrations using key crops to enlighten the farmers on: • appropriate crop varieties • appropriate crop husbandry practices • effective use of weather and climate information in agriculture • benefits of using clean seed • Initial seed bulking

26. Selection Criteria for Participating farmers

27. Factoring Climate The following areas shown in yellow in the figure are likely to receive near-normal tending to below-normal (depressed) rainfall: Vast areas of North Eastern province (Mandera, Elwak, Wajir, most of Garissa, etc); Much of the Eastern Province especially the Northern part; and Coast Province especially the western parts (Voi, Taita Taveta, Tana River, etc.)

28. Community Newsletter FIGHT HUNGER & FOOD INSECURITY BY PROPER STORAGE AND PLANTING DROUGHT ESCAPING/ TOLERANT VARIETIES. • For more information consult the nearest Extension officer. • Or DAO Makueni • TEL. No. 04433016. • Or DMO/ALRMP 11, • TEL. 044-33031 • Republic Of Kenya CALL BY MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE. Let Us Join Hands In Kicking Famine Relief Out of Our District.

29. Downscaling weather prediction into agronomic terms • Onset Of rains • Both Makueni and Kibwezi districts will be generally dry in March; proper onset of long rains will be realized during the third to fourth week of March. • Cessation of rains • They will be expected to be heavy in the month of April and cease in mid May (2nd & 3rd weeks). • Expected Distribution • The rainfall in the districts are expected to be normal in march and depressed in April and May. • N.B.- For details see the release by Kenya Meteorology department on 14th March 2007. • Agricultural Recommendations • Early land preparation with special attention directed to soil & water conservation structures construction/ renovation. (This should be done by 22nd March. • Planting to be completed by end of March

30. Choice of Crops/ Varieties • For lowland areas of Kathonzweni, Kilome, Nguu, Wote, Matiliku, Kasikeu, Kalawa, Kisau, Makindu, Mbitini, Kibwezi, Mutito Andei– to ensure food security plant at least 90 % of drought tolerant / escaping crops like Sorghum, millets, Cowpeas, Pigeon peas, Green grams, Cotton, Short Maturing Maize and fruits planting. • Farmers in cotton areas should prepare for pests out breaks after rains and thus take appropriate control measures. This will ensure higher AR to BR grades and thus more Income.

31. Correctly spaced early germinated crop A flourishing cash and/or food crop – Pigeon peas Same sorghum plot one month later Sorghum plot early 2007 Sorghum plot early 2007

32. A maize crop in a demo site in an adjacent farm A typical farm without intervention A trainer at work in one of the field days A farmers field day

33. Achievements • Participatory project site selection and baseline surveys • Presentation of the project concept and components for consideration and approval by the District Steering Group (DSG) • Community consultation and awareness creation through a series of 3 main community meetings (Barazas)

34. Achievements cont’d • Participatory project site selection and baseline surveys • Downscaling of weather forecasts, packaging into brochures and dissemination through community meetings, local radio announcements and a newspaper • Participatory selection of pilot farmers and self help groups • Out of the total population of 4800 people comprising approx. 500 households, 150 people attended the community selection baraza • An initial 60 farmers from 5 villages were selected out of which 40 were to be prioritized based on a selection criteria as follows 1. Muiu Sublocation – 7 2. Kathamba S/location – 9 3. Kiteani S/location – 94. Nthongoni S/location – 7 5. Linga S/location 8 • Making a total of 40 initial selected farmers in the first season and has been up scaled to 120 farmers altogether.

35. Achievements cont’d • Capacity building of pilot farmers through training on • Soil and water conservation • Weather prediction and interpretation • Importance of Drought escaping/ Tolerant crops • Choice of the appropriate drought escaping/ tolerant crops/ varieties for the area • Importance of early land preparation and planting • Sand dam construction Farmer led crop variety identification and selection

36. Achievements cont’d • Procurement, distribution and field application of 84 MTs of farm yard manure (FYM) for early land preparation and planting • Acquisition and distribution of an assortment of drought tolerant crop seeds to initial 40 pilot farmers • Provision of extension services to participating farms • 98% of pilot demonstration farms dry planted by 25th October • 85% of other Non-pilot farms practicing dry planting • 90% germination achieved before end of the first week of rains • Crop performance monitored at every stage and emerging cases noted by the farmers and the field extension staff • The 40 farmers got a bumper harvest in early 2007 • This process was repeated for the long rains (MAM) and current short rains (OND) and a total of 120 farmers have benefited from the seed pilot project

37. Challenges • Communities will need to be convinced on the direct link of climate change to high frequency of disasters • While the project may produce immediate results for participating communities, more resources are needed for up-scaling the good practices in the neighboring communities • There exists contradicting approach to development which are applied by other actors • Balancing the fragile ecosystem and degrading resources base coupled with the growing frequency of drought

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