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Presentation of General Content, Conclusions and Recommendations

Supply/Demand, Technical and Socio-economic GLOBAL STUDY of FERRMED Great Axis Network and its Area of influence. Presentation of General Content, Conclusions and Recommendations. FERRMED STANDARDS FOR THE RAIL FREIGHT GREAT AXES.

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Presentation of General Content, Conclusions and Recommendations

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  1. Supply/Demand, Technical and Socio-economic GLOBAL STUDY of FERRMED Great Axis Networkand its Area of influence Presentation of General Content, Conclusions and Recommendations

  2. FERRMED STANDARDS FOR THE RAIL FREIGHT GREAT AXES •  EU Reticular and polycentric network having a great socio-economic and intermodal impact. In the main branches of great axes two parallel lines: •  one giving priority or exclusiveness to freight heavy traffic •  another available for passengers and light freight (high sped trains). • Loading gauge UIC-C, width of the tracks UIC. Electrified lines. • Maximum slope 12‰ •  Trains length 1500 m. and 3.6005000 tonnes. •  Locomotive and wagon new concept •  Availability of a network of intermodal polyvalent and flexible terminals •  Unified labour, management and operational systems •  Free Competition •  30÷35% of participation of rail in long distance land transportation I. SUMMARY of the Global Study Ferrmedstandardssimplifiedversion

  3. A KEY STRUCTURAL GREAT AXIS NETWORK FOR WESTERN EUROPE The rail freight network of the FERRMED Great Axis interconnects the most important sea and inland harbour fronts; and the main East-West axes of the EU. Main Trunk Branches Length: 4.500 Km.

  4. TECHNICAL, SOCIOECONOMIC AND SUPPLY/DEMAND GLOBAL STUDY Totally business/market orientated with double approach, regional as well as European. Global study will analyze different modes of freight transportation in the whole network of the FERRMED Great Axis from three points of view: • Supply/Demand Analysis • Technical Analysis • Socioeconomic and environmental Analysis The aim is: • to match different Supply Scenarios with Demand and to balance and optimize the traffic between different modes of transportation achieving that the rail freight transportation could reach 30÷35% of the long distance land transportation rate • to put into practice FERRMED standards improving the conditions of capacity, intermodality and interoperability of the railway in the afore mentioned network. RESULT: HighpriorityRailFreightnetwork (businessoriented)

  5. TECHNICAL, SOCIOECONOMIC AND SUPPLY/DEMAND GLOBAL STUDY SELECTED CONSORTIUM • WYG International (UK) • DORSH Consult (Germany) • GESTE ENGINEERING (Switzerland) • INEXIA (France) • NTU (Denmark) • PROGTRANS AG (Switzerland) • RINA INDUSTRY (Italy) • SENER (Spain) • SIGNIFICANCE BV (The Netherlands) • STRATEC (Belgium) • WSP AB (Sweden) • WYG Consulting Group (UK)

  6. SUPPLY/DEMAND ANALYSIS

  7. The FERRMED “Global” Study • Strategic Transport Planning pre-feasibility project, including: • Railway infrastructure (new or upgrading of existing) • Necessary investment (including Freight Terminals) • Operational issues • Legal and administrative framework • Environmental concerns • Economic profitability • Financing options • Market opinion (and Market Analysis) • Four (4) main modules: • Supply/ Demand analysis • Technical analysis • Cost-Benefit analysis • Legal and administrative issues

  8. Content Scope of the S&D analysis Simulation model (2005) Future Scenarios Forecasting (2020 and 2025) Conclusions of the S&D analysis SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

  9. Framework Data Collection • SUPPLY/DEMAND ANALYSIS • FERRMED transport planning model building (base year 2005) • Definition of 14 future scenarios (2020-2025) • Simulation and traffic forecasting Supply/ Demand FERRMED Global Study Technical CBA Environmental Administrative Legal SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

  10. Trans-Tools Modelling Platform Developed under EU funding Originally for evaluation of TEN-T projects Models passenger and freight transport across Europe Database (2000) transport variables socioeconomic variables networks services Largest European transport model 4 step transport planning model (macroscopic) Trans-Tools provides a simulation tool for strategic analysis SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

  11. Transport Networks (II) • Railways (freight) • Mixed lines • Dedicated lines SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

  12. External models for freight demand Intra Red Banana and export to EU 25 Internal Demand for Red Banana Countries 1 2 3 • At country level • 4 production sectors • Industry • Agriculture • Construction • Energy • Eurostat data • Port Flow Distribution Model SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

  13. Port Flow Distribution Model • 45 major European ports included • 55% total European ports freight traffic • 75% of intercontinental freight traffic in Europe • Maritime and inland networks • 4 models built in TransCAD • containers • Ro-Ro • general cargo • dry bulk SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

  14. Traffic Assignment: Rail 2005 Rail Freight Traffic Calibration 2005 Rail Passenger Traffic Calibration y = 0.94x + 6.3 R2 = 0.95 y = 0.86x + 5.6 R2 = 0.88 Modelled Modelled Observed Observed • Output in tonnes/day (freight) and pax/day (passengers) converted to traffic (trains/day) • Model calibrated against observed rail traffic data for main lines • Local traffic considered separately using different occupancy and loading factors • Traffic split by train type • Passenger: high speed, intercity, commuter • Freight: block, wagon and container SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

  15. Freight Modal Split (Measured in tonnes-km) SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

  16. Year 2005 Traffic (III) • Rail Freight (trains/day) SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

  17. Inland Demand Forecasting SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

  18. Maritime Demand Forecasting • Inputs • GDP • Port expansion plans • Exports / imports • OECD industrial performance SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

  19. Rail Freight Network (2025 Reference Scenario) Reference Scenario Network • Planned and committed projects at 3 levels • European • National • Regional • New and upgraded infrastructure • Rail Freight (127 projects) • Rail Passenger (140 projects) • Road (209 projects) • Inland waterways (11 projects) • Terminals SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

  20. Reference Scenario Policies (I) SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

  21. Reference Scenario Policies (II) SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

  22. Transport Costs • Transport operating cost heavily dependant on fuel cost • Operating cost calculation assumptions: • Road freight transport fuel prices grow at 50% of crude oil rate • IWW and Maritime Transport fuel prices grow at 80% of crude oil rate • Rail electric power price grows at 30% of average energy rate • Assumptions for crude oil and energy prices growth: • Base year for prices: 2000 (Trans-Tools) • Future trends: World Bank (2008) and STEPs project (EC, 2006) Freight Model Input SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

  23. FERRMED Standards Implementation SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

  24. Inland Freight Modal Split (Measured in tonnes-km) SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

  25. Freight Modal Split Inland Long Distance (>500 km) (Measured in tonnes-km) SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

  26. Freight Modal Split Inland Long Distance (>1000 km) (Measured in tonnes-km) SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

  27. 2025 REFERENCE Scenario Rail Freight Traffic (trains/day) SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

  28. 2025 FULL FERRMED Scenario Rail Freight Traffic (trains/day) SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

  29. FERRMED: Reversing the trend (I) Total Total MEDIUM Road MEDIUM Road Rail Rail MEDIUM IWW IWW MEDIUM Total FULL Total Ref. Road Ref. Road FULL Rail Ref. Rail FULL IWW FULL IWW Ref. SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

  30. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

  31. Contents FERRMED Rail Network Definition FERRMED Standards Bottleneck analysis Terminals Costs Recommendations Conclusion

  32. FERRMED Rail Network Definition Started with FERRMED Association Map Line by line analysis FERRMED Standards Expert judgement Optimal freight train routes selected Lines not meeting criteria not retained

  33. The FERRMED Rail Network (2005)

  34. The FERRMED Rail Network (2025)

  35. Bottleneck Analysis Theoretical capacity of each line calculated Capacity compared with train traffic Residual capacity determined Bottlenecks identified based on : residual capacity - relative capacity (track occupation) variation of traffic intensity

  36. Bottleneck LocationsReference Scenario 2025

  37. The 2005 Full FERRMED Rail Network

  38. The 2025 Full FERRMED Rail Network

  39. Evolution of the network 2025 Full

  40. Evolution of the network 2025 Full

  41. Evolution of the network 2025 Full

  42. Costs up to 2025 by scenario € 211 bn € 178 bn € 131 bn 2025

  43. Costs up to 2025 by scenario

  44. Recommendations

  45. Recommendations To change the width of the tracks in Spain from the French border. To develop the automatic coupler (tractive and compression efforts with wire data transmission) To increase the freight train length :  1000 m  1500 m To solve the detected bottlenecks and to build the Tarragona – Castelló new line. To construct by-passes of major conurbations

  46. High performance parallel lines and almost dedicated lines according to passenger or freight traffic Autocoupler & long trains with radio or wire data transmission A rail network available for freight transportation 24 h / 24 and 7 days / 7 Unified management and monitoring systems (ERTMS) Outcomes

  47. ENVIRONMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS

  48. Introduction Transport critical to our economy but; environmentally impacting Source: DG TREN Pocketbook 2009

  49. Emissions High level impact on emission levels analysed within the CBA Emission factors derived from TREMOVE transport & emissions simulation model Reduction in pollutants and CO2 assessed for Medium, Full / Full+ Reduction in Pollutant and Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2016 – 2045 (tonnes)

  50. CO2 Savings Modest savings achieved in CO2 against trend of rising transport demand Significant contribution towards Climate and Energy Package target (10% reduction) CO2 Savings at Strategic Years

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