THE IGOS-P GLOBAL WATER CYCLE OBSERVATIONS THEME (IGWCO) AND ITS POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO GEOSS

1. THE IGOS-P GLOBAL WATER CYCLE OBSERVATIONS THEME (IGWCO) AND ITS POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO GEOSS PRESENTED BY RICK LAWFORD (lawford@umbc.edu) GEO SIDE MEETING TOKYO JAPAN APRIL 23, 2004

2. BASIC TENANT OF THE IGWCO: THE PROGRESS OF SOCIETY AND MEASUREMENTS OF THE WATER CYCLE ARE INEXTRICABLY LINKED. THE PHYSICAL HUMAN CONDITION COULD BE IMPROVED BY THE IMPLEMENTATION OF AN EFFECTIVE GLOBAL INTEGRATED WATER CYCLE OBSERVATIONAL SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS.

3. EPOCH #1: WATER: A GIFT TO MANKIND (DAWN OF CIVILIZATION TO THE LAST CENTURY) WATER IS ESSENITAL FOR LIFE WHEN WATER WAS NOT AVAILABLE NOMADIC PEOPLE MOVED TO ANOTHER LOCATION. THOSE WHO WANTED PERMANENCE SETTLED CLOSE TO A RIVER OR A WATER SOURCE.

4. EPOCH #2: WATER AND DEVELOPMENT (LATE 1800’S TO PRESENT) WATER IS ESSENTIAL FOR PROSPERITY TECHNOLOGY ALLOWED FOR THE MEASUREMENT OF WATER FLOWS AND PRECIPITATION. THIS INFORMATION WAS USED TO DESIGN DAMS AND RESERVOIRS THAT COULD STABILIZE THE MONTH TO MONTH AND YEAR TO YEAR VARIABILITY IN SUPPLY. THESE ACTIONS OFTEN HAD IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ENVIRONMENT.

5. EPOCH #3: WATER AND THE ENVIRONMENT (APPROX. MID-1960’S TO THE PRESENT) WATER IS ESSENTIAL FOR HEALTH (FOR HUMANS AND ECOSYSTEMS) NOT ALL WATER IS SAFE OR USEABLE. A CAPABILITY TO ANALYZE WATER SAMPLES CHEMICALLY SHOWED SOME WATER CONTAINED DANGEROUS LEVELS OF PATHOGENS, BACTERIA, CONTAMINANTS AND TOXICS. MEASUREMENTS BECAME A BASIS FOR STANDARDS AND LEGAL ACTION AGAINST POLLUTERS. DURING THE PAST 3 DECADES A NUMBER OF OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS SUCH AS LAND USE CHANGE HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THIS LIST OF CAUSES OF ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION. DEATHS FROM INTERNAL DISEASES DEATHS DUE TO INFECTIOUS DISEASES UNSAFE WATERS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR >2 MILLION DEATHS PER YEAR AND FOR EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ECOSYSTEMS,

6. TODAY, SATELLITES PROVIDE A NEW GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE ON THE WATER CYCLE Exploratory missions to probe key Earth system processes globally for the first time The Earth Observing System -- systematic measurement of interactions among land, oceans, atmosphere, ice & life Aqua* Landsat TRMM GRACE* Jason* Terra CALIPSO Cloudsat SORCE^ ICESat^ EO-3: GIFTS EO-1: ALI & Hyperion Aura Operational precursor / Technology demos SeaWiFS NOAA/GOES Operational weather services missions for NOAA NOAA/POES* *FY02 launch (+ SAGE III) ^FY03 launch (+SeaWinds)

7. LEADING TO THE QUESTION: WILL A NEW EPOCH OCCUR IN OURLIFETIMES AND, IF SO, WHAT WILL BE ITS ATTRIBUTES? • IT IS OUR VIEW THAT WE ARE ON THE THRESHOLD OF A NEW EPOCH • IN WATER MANAGEMENT PROVIDED WE CAN MOBILIZE OUR • CAPAB ILITIES TO OBSERVE TOGETHER WITH OUR UNDERSTANDING AND • ABILITY TO MODEL THE GLOBAL WATER CYCLE. • FACTORS THAT ARE ENCOURAGING THIS DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE: • EXPANDING CAPABILITIES TO OBSERVE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL • VARIABLES FROM SPACE. • 2) AN EVOLVING CAPABILITY TO ASSIMILATE AND PREDICT, BASED ON • IMPROVED MODELS ON AND ON BETTER DEFINITIONS OF INITIAL AND • BOUNDARY CONDITIONS, • DEMANDS OF NATIONAL AND REGIONAL WATER RESOURCE • COMMUNITIES WHICH ARE SEEKING TO ADDRESS THE NEEDS FOR • SECURITY OF WATER SUPPLY, RELIABLE WATER QUALITY, AND • RESPONSIBLE GROUND WATER USE WITHIN A FRAMEWORK OF • INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT,

8. “HELPING TO SOLVE THE WORLD’S WATER PROBLEMS WITH INTEGRATED WATER CYCLE OBSERVATIONS AND INFORMATION” IGWCO OBJECTIVES • Provide a framework for guiding decisions on • priorities and strategies regarding water cycle • observations for: • - Monitoring climate variability and change, • - Effective water management and • sustainable development of the world’s • water resources, • - Societal applications for resource • development and environmental • management, • - Specification of initial conditions for • weather and climate forecasts, • - Research directed at priority water cycle • research questions 2. Promote strategies that facilitate the processing, archiving and distribution of water cycle data products

9. WATER MANAGEMENT: A PROBLEM IN BUDGETTING WITH INADEQUATE DATA SUPPLY(INCOME) USE (EXPENDITURE) IRRIGATION FOR FOOD PRODUCTION PRIMARY SOURCE: PRECIPITATION DRINKING FOR SURVIVAL RESERVES (SAVINGS) IF EXPENDITURES > INCOME + SAVINGS FOR THE LONG TERM THERE IS A MAJOR PROBLEM!! WATER TO MAINTAIN ECOSYSTEM HEALTH

10. WATER MANAGEMENT: A PROBLEM IN BUDGETTING WITH INADEQUATE DATA SUPPLY(INCOME) USE (EXPENDITURES) PRIMARY SOURCE: PRECIPITATION IRRIGATION FOR FOOD PRODUCTION RESERVES (SAVINGS) DRINKING FOR SURVIVAL THE MANAGEMENT CHALLENGE: ENSURE INCOME + SAVINGS > OR = EXPENDITURES FOR EACH AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (E.G., WATER BASIN, STATE. NATION) BY: 1) DETERMINING HOW MUCH WATER IS AVAILABLE AT THE SCALE WHERE DECISIONS ARE MADE 2) DETERMINING HOW MUCH WATER IS USED (E.G., BY ECOSYSTEMS, HUMANS) 3) PROVIDING BETTER PREDICTIONS OF WATER SUPPLY 4) EVALUATING OPTIONS (E.G. CONSERVATION) AND IMPLEMENTING POLICIES AND PROGRAMS TO ACHIEVE REGIONAL OBJECTIVES

11. USERS DEFINE NEEDS AND INFLUENCE PRIORITIES POLICY SUPPORT TO RIO 21, UN MILLENIUM GOALS, UNFCC, ETC WATER QUALITY DEGRADATION FROM LAND CLEARING RESEARCH PROGRAM SUPPORT IGWCO DIRECT USERS AND SERVICE PROVIDERS Current Irrigation Intensity Percentage of Irrigated Land Siebert et al 2001

12. SUMMARY: BOTH RESEARCH AND OPERATIONAL SATELLITES HAVE A ROLE IN ADDRESSING IGWCO NEEDS AND OPPORTUNITIES • HIGHER RESOLUTION MEASUREMENTS AND MEASUREMENTS OF NEW • VARIABLES. • STUDIES OF TRENDS AND VARIABILITY DEPEND ON LONG-TERM • CONTINUITY IN THE RECORD. • 3. MANY OPERATIONAL WATER MANAGEMENT SERVICES RELY ON SIMPLE • DATA INPUTS. SPACE AGENCIES AND DATA SERVICES MUST BE • FLEXIBLE AND WORK WITH USERS TO DEVELOP NEW MODELS/ • APPLICATIONS/ ROUTINES. • 4. IGWCO SHOULD ADDRESS SUSTAINABILITY AND CLIMATE ISSUES AT • THE HIGHEST POLICY LEVELS. • RECOMMENDATION: ESTABLISH A GROUP OF USERS TO • ADVISE THE IGWCO ON PRIORITIES FOR OBSERVATIONS.

13. PRECIPITATION: MOISTURE SUPPLIED BY THE ATMOSPHERE FOR LIFE ON EARTH ISSUE: WEBS SYNTHESIS SHOWS THE DIFFICULTY IN SIMULATING RAIN • SPECIFIC SHORTCOMINGS: • LACK OF ABSOLUTE MEASUREMENT • STANDARDS FOR DIFFERENT • SPATIAL SCALES. • b. INCOMPLETE RADAR COVERAGE • (GROUND RADAR, SATELLITE). • c. SNOWFALL MEASUREMENT. • d. MEASUREMENT IN COMPLEX • TERRAIN. • e. VERTICAL DISTRIBUTIONS OF • PRECIPITATION FOR LATENT • HEATING ESTIMATES. PRECIPITATION DETERMINES THE ANNUAL AMOUNT OF RENEWABLE WATER, RIVER RUNOFF AND THE LATENT HEAT RELEASED IN THE ATMOSPHERE. IT IS POORLY PREDICTED ON LONGER TIME SCALES AND LONG-TERM RECORDS DO NOT EXIST FOR MUCH OF THE EARTH’S SURFACE (E.G.OCEANS). TRMM • RECOMMENDATIONS: • IMPROVE COVERAGE OF • SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. • b. ENHANCE COVERAGE OF SPACE • BORNE RADAR. • c. IMPROVE ALGORITHMS TO • BLEND OBSERVATIONS FROM • ALL SOURCES. • d. FIELD CAMPAIGNS FOR • VALIDATION. GPM (ISSUE: WHAT WILL SCIENCE (AND USERS) DO FOR DATA CONTINUTIY BETWEEN THE END OF TRMM DATA AND THE LAUNCH OF GPM?)

14. REVIEW OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR IGWCO DEVELOPMENT WORK • SOME • REQUIREMENTS: • ARE MATURE • 2) NEED TO BE • QUANTIFIED • 3) NEED TO BE • SCOPED

15. REVIEW OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR IGWCO DEVELOPMENT WORK PRIORITY FOR IGWCO REC. GEO PRIORITY CRYOSPHERE THEME CLIMATE PRIOR. WATER RES. PRIOR.

16. USER INTEREST IN DATA INTEGRATION MOTIVATION: MOST USERS WANTTHEBEST POSSIBLE PRODUCT – NOT 5 DIFFERENT VALUES FOR THE SAME VARIABLE AT THE SAME POINT IN TIME AND SPACE. THEY ALSO WANT SOME ASSESSMENT OF THE ACCURACY OF THE MEASURMENT. OPPORTUNITIES: 1. NETWORK OF SUPERSITES (HIGH RESOLUTION POINT DATA – CONTINUOUS IN TIME FOR A FEW POINTS) NEED TO BE ESTABLISHED AND THEIR DATA COMBINED WITH SATELLITE DATA (COARSE DATA – CONTINUOUS IN SPACE). 2.TOOLS FOR DATA INTEGRATION: - GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS, - DATA MINING, - REGIONAL AND GLOBAL DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEMS, - MODELS, - PERIODIC REANALYSES. 3. FOLLOW-ON TO EXPERIENCE IN INTEGRATED DATA SET DEVELOPMENT THROUGH CEOP.

17. HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT PARADIGM FOR SYSTEMS IN WATER MANAGEMENT WMO HYDROL IAHS OBSERVATIONS RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS UNESCO IHP SPACE AGENCIES GEWEX RESOURCE AGENCY NETWORKS NATIONAL WATER CYCLE PROGRAMS NATIONAL SERVICE CAPABILITIES USERS

18. BUILDING TOWARD THE NEXT EPOCH IN WATER MANAGEMENT (& OTHER APPLICATION SECTORS) IGWCO GWSP CEOP I CEOP II RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS OBSERVATIONS WMO HYDROL IAHS PUB UNESCO IHP (A POTENTIAL ROLE FOR THE GEOSS IMPLEMENTATION?) SPACE AGENCIES GEWEX RESOURCE AGENCY NETWORKS NATIONAL WATER CYCLE PROGRAMS NATIONAL SERVICE CAPABILITIES USERS

19. DRAFT IGWCO IMPLEMENTATION TIMETABLE ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 THEME REPORT APPROVAL R R CEOP PHASE I IMPLEMENTATION PLAN I P CEOP PHASE II GWSP DATA SYSTEM + INDICATORS/ INDICES + + INTEGRATED PRECIP PRODUCT + COPES * * * U G (INTEGRATED OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL WATER CYCLE) WORKSHOPS

20. IGWCO IMPLEMENTATION PLAN IGOS-P IGWCO THEME EXECUTIVE (WCRP, WMO, CEOS) DISTRIBUTED IGWCO SECRETARIAT SCIENTIFIC ADVISORY COMMITTEE USER GROUP ADVISORY COMMITTEE SOIL MOISTURE PRODUCTS GROUP CEOS/ WCRP CEOP PROJECT NEW GWC PROJECTS (GPM, ETC)

21. WHAT GEOSS CAN PROVIDE FOR IGWCO: • AN OPPORTUNITY TO DESIGN A COMPLETE WATER MANAGEMENT • INFORMATION FRAMEWORK WITH GLOBAL COVERAGE AND NATIONAL • IMPLEMENTATION. • 2. AN OPPORTUNITY TO ACCESS THE NATIONAL CAPABILITIES, • RESOURCES AND LEVELS OF MANAGEMENT NEEDED TO • EFFECTIVELY IMPLEMENT THE IGWCO VISION. • 3. HELP TO IDENTIFY OR DEVELOP A FORUM FOR COORDINATING THE • NEEDS AND PRIORITIES FOR IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS (SIMILAR TO • THE ROLE CEOS PLAYS FOR SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS).

22. WHAT IGWCO CAN PROVIDE FOR GEOSS • AN ASSESSMENT OF THE NEEDS FOR AND LIMITATIONS OF WATER • CYCLE OBSERVATIONS. • 2. OPPORTUNITIES FOR CAPACITY BUILDING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES • FOR THE WATER SECTOR. • 3. A MECHANISM FOR ON-GOING MONITORING OF THE SUCCESS OF • GEOSS IMPLEMENTATION IN THE WATER SECTOR.