Global Employment Trends for Youth

1. Global Employment Trends for Youth Steven Kapsos International Labour Organization UN/DESA Expert Group Meeting on Adolescents, Youth and Development New York, 21-22 July 2011

2. Overview • The big picture: • Why focus on youth? • Youthvulnerabilities in the labour market • What we know and what we don’t know • Labour market trends for youth: the pre-crisis picture • Impact of the global economic crisis on youth in the labour market • Policy responses

3. 1. The big picture

4. Why focus on youthemployment? • Inefficiencies in youth labour market (unemployment, discouragement, workingpoverty) are costly • Lack of decentworkat an earlyage compromises future employment prospects and impacts behaviour • A youngpersonwithhopes and options is happy; takeaway the options and youthbecomeangry • Future consumers, producers … societies

5. Why are young people particularly vulnerable in the labour market? • Educational deficiencies • Skills/talent mismatch • Lack of work experience, professional contacts, networks • Precarious employment contracts/dual labour markets • Last-in, first-out phenomenon • Barriers to entrepreneurship

6. Quantifying youth vulnerability: What do we know? What we know . . . What we do not know . . . Unemployed Unemployed share decreased from 6.8 to 6.1% Size of the vulnerable Discouraged youth population?? workers Share of ? Underemployed Other? working ? Inactive poor - 28.1% Employed In full-time Fully education Employed employed Breakdown of the ? share ? Inactive Shares of inactive by decreased from share underemployed v. fully reason - how 47.9 to 44.7% increased from employed in total many are in each 45.3 to 49.2% employment? category?

7. 2. Labour market trends for youth – the pre-crisis picture

8. Share of youth in the total population show declining trend in all regions Source: ILO, GET Youth, August 2010

9. Employment-to-population ratios decrease over time in most regions Source: ILO, GET Youth, August 2010

10. Global youth unemployment rates were decreasing before the economic crisis Source: ILO, GET Youth, August 2010

11. But young people remaindisadvantaged relative to adultsacrossregions

12. Inequalities in the chances of finding work • Young women tend to have more difficulty finding work than young men. • In most OECD countries, unemployment is higher among the lesser educated youth; in developing countries, it is the highly educated who face longer job searches. • Unemployment rates are typically higher among ethnic minorities.

13. Young women face muchhigherunemployment rates thanyoung men in someregions

14. Working poverty rates among youth exceed those of adults Source: ILO, GET Youth, August 2010

15. 3. Impact of the global economic crisis on youth in the labour market

16. The economic crisis reversed pre-crisis progress in global youth unemployment p = projection Source: ILO, GET Youth, August 2010

17. Youth in developed economies are particularly hard hit p = projection Source: ILO, GET Youth, August 2010

18. Impact of the crisis on the industrial sector, particularly construction, resulted in a sharp increase in unemployment among male youth M = male; F = female Source: Laborsta

19. Impact of the crisis in selected countries Source: Laborsta Source: Eurostat • Large increase in youth unemployment rates in Spain; little change in Germany. • But in Germany, nearly one-third of those who are unemployed were already unemployed for longer than 12 months; only recently the case in Spain and the UK.

20. Impact of the crisis in selected countries (cont.) Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat • Slight increase in youth part-time employment rates but impact on temporary employment is less obvious. • Part-time employment more relevant for UK youth, but incidence of temporary employment is very low compared to Germany and Spain.

21. Youth unemployment rates say nothing about discouragement Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends 2011

22. Impact of the crisis on youth in developing countries • Lack of decent work is nothing new for majority of youth • Dominance of self-employment acts as a buffer, unemployment rates do not significantly increase … increase in vulnerable employment and casual labour in an “increasingly crowded” informal economy • Secondary consequences on education and training, pregnancy and parenthood, health

23. Longer term impacts on youth entering the labour market during recession • Impacts timing of labour market entry (“hiding out” in education), the smoothness of the transition (multiple spells of unemployment), social norms adopted (mistrust in the State and economic system) • “Lost generation” ?

24. 4. Policy responses to promote decent work for youth

25. What works? Key considerations • Youth are a heterogeneous group: important to profile youth for early identification of vulnerabilities • Multi component interventions, well-focused on specific needs of youth and the labour market 1. Addressing skills mismatches • Facilitate access to vocational training • Entrepreneurship programmes • Soft and life skills training programmes • Linking employers with educational institutions

26. What works (cont.)? 2. Addressing slow job growth barriers • Active labour market policies • Public works programmes • Public service programmes 3. Addressing inadequate job matching • Employment and intermediation services 4. Addressing poor signalling • Skills certification systems 5. Supporting strong labour market information systems

27. Global Employment Trends for Youth Steven Kapsos International Labour Organization kapsos@ilo.org UN/DESA Expert Group Meeting on Adolescents, Youth and Development New York, 21-22 July 2011