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BRAZIL’S ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION: AN OVERVIEW

BRAZIL’S ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION: AN OVERVIEW. Edmar Bacha Stern School of Business , NYU September 28, 2012. SUMMARY. Inflation record , before and after 1994 GDP growth experience Recent macroeconomic indicators Some structural challenges.

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BRAZIL’S ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION: AN OVERVIEW

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  1. BRAZIL’S ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION: AN OVERVIEW Edmar Bacha Stern School of Business, NYU September 28, 2012

  2. SUMMARY • Inflationrecord, beforeandafter 1994 • GDP growthexperience • Recentmacroeconomicindicators • Some structuralchallenges

  3. THE TWO BRAZIL’S: INFLATION BEFORE AND AFTER THE 1994 REAL PLAN

  4. MONTHLY INFLATION FROM JAN 1980 TO THE REAL PLAN (JULY 1994)

  5. MONTHLY INFLATION AFTER THE REAL PLAN, 7/1994-12/2011

  6. ANNUAL INFLATION RATE, 1980-1993

  7. ANNUAL INFLATION RATE, 1995-2011

  8. GDP GROWTH, 1901-2011

  9. GDP GROWTH, 1948-2011

  10. POST-WW-II GDP GROWTH, SELECTED PERIODS

  11. AVERAGE ANNUAL REAL GROWTH RATE OF HOUSEHOLD PER CAPITA INCOME, 1999-2009

  12. PER CAPITA HOUSEHOLD INCOME GROWTH, 2009-2011

  13. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 2002.3-2012.7

  14. NET PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT, 1991.01-2012.01 (% GDP)

  15. REAL OVERNIGHT INTEREST RATE, 1996.01-2012.01 (p.y.)

  16. GROSS AND NET EXTERNAL DEBT AS A RATIO OF G&S EXPORTS, 1970.IV-2011.III

  17. BRAZIL’S GDP IN USD: RANK AND VALUE, 2000-2011

  18. REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE (2005=100)(1980/12 TO 2012/5, 12 MO MA)

  19. BRAZIL’S INVESTMENT RATE:RECENT EVOLUTION AND COMPARISON WITH OTHER L.A. COUNTRIES

  20. IS THIS SUSTAINABLE?A/Y -1 = (P-1) + Z

  21. G&S IMPORTS OVER GDP (%): BRAZIL, OTHER L.A. COUNTRIES, BRICS (2007-11 RANGE) Argentina 16-22 Brazil 11-13 Chile 32-40 Colombia 17-20 Mexico 29-32 Peru 20-27 China 22-30 India 24-30 Russia 20-22 SouthAfrica 28-34 Average (except BR) 23-28

  22. SOURCES FOR THE SLIDES • S3: Miriam Leitão, Saga Brasileira: A Longa Luta de um Povo por sua Moeda. Record, 2011: 260-261. • S4-S7: Henrique Carvalho, “IPCA e IGP-M: Inflação Histórica no Brasil”, February 21, 2011. Avaliableat: www.hcinvestimentos.com/2011/02/21/ipca-igpm-inflacao-historica/. • S8, S10, S14-S19: Armando Castelar, ”Desempenho Recente e Perspectivas de Crescimento da Economia Brasileira”. Presentation to theSeminar: WhitherLatin America? Rio de Janeiro: Vargas Foundation, August 9-10, 2012. • S9: Edmar Bachaand Regis Bonelli, “Accounting for theriseandfallofBrazil’sPost-WW-II GDP growth”, July 2012. Availableat: www.iepecdg.com.br. • S11: Edmar Bacha, “Introdução”. In: E. Bacha, Belíndia 2.0: Fábulas e Ensaios sobre o País dos Contrastes. Civilização Brasileira, 2012, forthcoming.” • S12: IPEA, Ädecada inclusiva (2001-2011): desigualdade, pobreza e politicas de renda”, Comunicados do IPEA n. 153, Sept., 25, 2012. • S13: Thanks to Aurelio Bicalho, from Banco Itaú BBA. • S20: Edmar Bacha, “Bonança externa e desindustrialização: uma análise do período 2005-2011”. In: E. Bachaand M. de Bolle (eds.), O Futuro da Indústria no Brasil: Desindustrialização em Debate. Civilização Brasileira, 2012, forthcoming. • S21: Edmar Bacha, “Brazil’sGrowthPotential: Some NumericalExercises”. Presentation to theSeminar: WhiterLatin America? Rio de Janeiro: Vargas Foundation, August 9-10, 2012.

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