I Latin American and the Caribbean Workshop

1. I Latin American and the Caribbean Workshop Assesment for Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC) 27-30 May 2003 Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de

2. Introduccion to Extreme Events and Climate Change Ier. Taller Latinoamericano y del Caribe (AIACC) San Jose, Costa Rica, Mayo, 2003

3. Luis J. Mata 1 M.Rusticucci 2, S.Solman 3 J. B. Valdés 4 1Center for Develompment Research, University of Bonn, Germany, l.mata@uni-bonn.de 2 Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina, mati@at.fcen.uba.ar 3 CIMA (Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera) and Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina, solman@at1.fcen.uba.ar 4 Dept. of Civil Engineering and SAHRA (Sustainability for Semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas) Center, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, jvaldes@u.arizona.edu ZEF

4. Outline(ideas) 1- Some fundamental from IPCC TAR 2- Climate change is not only about changes in average values —in addition to changes in the mean it is very important to examine trends in extreme events. 3- Theoretical view—linear increase in the mean and variability imply a nonlinear increase of climate extremes 4- This theoretic matter is confronted with some observations 5- Adaptation and needs of good forecasting

5. Some fundamental from IPCC TAR and other sources

6. Estimates of confidence in observed and projected change in some extreme events Estimates of confidence in observed and projected change in some extreme events

7. Examples of ENSO impacts on several Latin American Countries Source: Mata & Campos, 2001

8. Type Description Simple extremes Individual local weather variables exceeding critical level on a continuous scale (e.g.,temperature, precipitation) Complex extremes Severe weather associated with particular climatic phenomena, often requiring a critical combination of variables (e.g., tropical cyclones) Unique or singular phenomena A plausible future climatic state with potentially extreme large-scale or global outcomes (e.g., THC) Typology of Extreme Events Source: Chapter 1 IPCC, 2001

9. Temperature and Precipitation - The increased in temperature is associated with an stronger warming in daily minimum temperatures than maximum (Easterling et al., 1997) - Global precipitation has also increased since the late 19th century (IPCC, 2001). - Given these increases, it is expected that there would also be increases in extreme events (Mearns et al., 1984)

10. The planet averaged an even 14.0 C between 1961-90. The average temperature in 2002 was about 14.55 the second warmest year on record Global average mean temperature has increased by 0.6± 0.2 ° C since the late 19th century

11. Climate change is not only about changes in average values—in addition to changes in the mean it is very important to examine trends in extreme events

12. Trends on annual and seasonal (DJF and JJA) rainfall in Corrientes, Argentina

13. Was these extreme? Yes!!!—but not implausible given the historical evidence Heavy Precipitation and landslides Figure 4. Rainfall occurred in Venezuela on December 1999 caused over 30,000 deaths and great economic losses. Annual maxima 951mm in 1954 cumulative daily Source: MARN,2000 LJM,2002

14. They claim that the 1999 event has a sizeable probability which implies that such an occurence within a reasonably short time horizon could have been anticipated

15. Was the Venezuelan Central Coast December 1999 an unique event? Source: Coles et al, 2003

16. Some other extreme events (e.g., floods)

18. Water Extremes Mozambique Flood Bonn Flood (Rhein River)

19. Location (Continent) Duration (Days) Affected Region (sq km) Damage (USD per Sq. km) C. Europe (Europe) 18 (August) 252.300 79.270 S. Russia (Asia) 12 (June) 224.600 1.945 W. Venezuela (South America) 11 (July) 224.900 13,34 NW China (Asia) 10 (June) 252.000 1.587 Some floods in summer(June-August 2002) DRESDEN Photo: C.Stache/AP Source: Darmouth Flood Observatory

20. Theory An increase in mean and variance imply a nonlinear increase in the probability of extremes

21. ± 1 SD Threshold Threshold Probability of high extremes Probability of low extremes New Mean Mean T0 LJM,2002

23. Observations

24. Figure 5. Annual precipitation PDF at Corrientes, Argentina Mean 1902-1944= 1186.95 mm Mean 1945-1999 =1431.00 mm Density LJM,2003 Annual rainfall in mm Source: Olga Penalba, personal comunication 2002

25. Figure 3. Extreme value distributions of maximum flows on Paraná river at Corrientes (1904-1960 and 1961-1997) Source: Valdés, 2002 personal communication

26. Something about adaptation

27. Threshold Threshold Probability of low extremes Coping range Probability of high extremes Adaptation candecrease the probability of extremes animation4

28. Adaptation Threshold Threshold Probability of low extremes Probability of high extremes Adaptation candecrease the probability of extremes animation5 LJM,2002

29. Anticipatory Adaptation Due to a good flood forecasting Photo: L.J.Mata,1998

30. Gracias