BTV and AHS risk associated with wind streams

1. BTV and AHS risk associated with wind streams Beatriz Martínez López*, José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno *beatriz@sanidadanimal.info Animal Health Department Veterinary School University Complutense of Madrid (UCM), Spain www.sanidadanimal.info SECOND ANNUAL MEETING Giulianova, Teramo, 9-11 December 2008

2. 0.5 microgram 0.1 to 10 microgram Barnum et al. 2004 0.73 to 6.1 microgram Perez et al. 2006 Source: SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, and ORBIMAGE

3. Culicoides is introduced into Europe by wind Culicoides survives Culicoides becomes infected with BTV Culicoides contacs with susceptible animal BT symptoms Culicoides transmits BTV to susceptible animal Bluetongue virus in sheep, cows, goats, camels or wild ruminants Death Recovery Introduction of BTV (AHS) by wind Pathway diagram Adapted from: EL PAíS, Sunday 16th novemeber, 2008

4. Culicoides is introduced into Europe by wind Culicoides survives Culicoides becomes infected with BTV Culicoides contacs with susceptible animal BT symptoms Culicoides transmits BTV to susceptible animal Bluetongue virus in sheep, cows, goats, camels or wild ruminants Death Recovery Introduction of BTV (AHS) by wind Pathway diagram Adapted from: EL PAíS, Sunday 16th novemeber, 2008

5. Culicoides is introduced into Europe by wind Culicoides survives Culicoides becomes infected with BTV Culicoides contacs with susceptible animal BT symptoms Culicoides transmits BTV to susceptible animal Bluetongue virus in sheep, cows, goats, camels or wild ruminants Death Recovery Introduction of BTV (AHS) by wind Pathway diagram Adapted from: EL PAíS, Sunday 16th novemeber, 2008

6. Culicoides is introduced into Europe by wind Culicoides survives Culicoides becomes infected with BTV Culicoides contacs with susceptible animal BT symptoms Culicoides transmits BTV to susceptible animal Bluetongue virus in sheep, cows, goats, camels or wild ruminants Death Recovery Introduction of BTV (AHS) by wind Pathway diagram Adapted from: EL PAíS, Sunday 16th novemeber, 2008

7. Culicoides is introduced into Europe by wind Culicoides survives Culicoides becomes infected with BTV Culicoides contacs with susceptible animal BT symptoms Culicoides transmits BTV to susceptible animal Bluetongue virus in sheep, cows, goats, camels or wild ruminants Death Recovery Introduction of BTV (AHS) by wind Pathway diagram Adapted from: EL PAíS, Sunday 16th novemeber, 2008

8. Culicoides is introduced into Europe by wind Culicoides survives Culicoides becomes infected with BTV Culicoides contacs with susceptible animal BT symptoms Culicoides transmits BTV to susceptible animal Bluetongue virus in sheep, cows, goats, camels or wild ruminants Death Recovery Introduction of BTV (AHS) by wind Pathway diagram Adapted from: EL PAíS, Sunday 16th novemeber, 2008

9. Culicoides is introduced into Europe by wind Culicoides survives Culicoides becomes infected with BTV Culicoides contacs with susceptible animal BT symptoms Culicoides transmits BTV to susceptible animal Bluetongue virus in sheep, cows, goats, camels or wild ruminants Death Recovery Introduction of BTV (AHS) by wind Pathway diagram Adapted from: EL PAíS, Sunday 16th novemeber, 2008

10. Prediction of Culicoides introduction into Europe by wind using the Dust REgional Atmospheric Model(DREAM) Objectives Wind + Particle vehiculation + Deposition ? ? ? ? ? ?

11. DREAM: Dust REgional Atmospheric Model Prediction of culicoides introduction Source: http://www.bsc.es/projects/earthscience/DREAM/

12. There is a significant association between the dust introduction into Europe and the Culicoides introduction by wind. Hypothesis Culicoides entrance Dust introduction

13. 1. Data collection: Introduction of dust into Europe* Surface concentration (μg/m3/day) 2. Data analysis: Temporal and spatial analysis of dust introduction into Europe* Outbreaks in N. Africa + Wind Outbreaks in Europe*? Materials and Methods *Only Spain has been analysed in detail (future work would include other European Countries)

14. 1. Data collection

15. 1. Data collection

16. 1. Data collection Cell: 0.5 x 0.5 degrees

17. 1. Data collection • Surface concentration (μg/m3/day)* • Dry dust deposition (g/m2/day) • Wet dust deposition (g/m2/day) • Optical depth • Dust load (g/m2) (2000-2006) 544,215 records *amount of dust (μg = micrograms) per volume (m3) near to the soil (<2000 meters).

18. 1. Data collection • Surface concentration (μg/m3/day)* • Dry dust deposition (g/m2/day) • Wet dust deposition (g/m2/day) • Optical depth • Dust load (g/m2) (2000-2006) (2000-2006) 544,215 records *amount of dust (μg = micrograms) per volume (m3) near to the soil (<1000 meters).

19. 2. Data analysis • Temporal and spatial analysis of dust introduction into Europe*: • When and where: • Time series analysis • ArcGIS • Is there any correlation between outbreak ocurrence in North Africa, dust introduction and outbreak ocurrence in Europe?

20. Preliminary Results

21. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Surface concentration (μg/m3) 2006

22. Surface concentration (μg/m3) Balearic Islands Andalucía

23. April - July

24. 60 132 146 50 40 30 20 10 0 2005_01 2005_03 2005_05 2005_07 2005_09 2005_11 2006_01 2006_03 2006_05 2006_07 2006_09 2006_11 2000_01 2000_03 2000_05 2000_07 2000_09 2000_11 2001_01 2001_03 2001_05 2001_07 2001_09 2001_11 2002_01 2002_03 2002_05 2002_07 2002_09 2002_11 2003_01 2003_03 2003_05 2003_07 2003_09 2003_11 2004_01 2004_03 2004_05 2004_07 2004_09 2004_11 April - July

25. 50 40 30 20 10 0 BTV-2 104 outbreaks BTV introduction in Balearic Islands 2000 BTV-2 *Only primary outbreaks in Baleares are considered Dust in Baleares Outbreaks* in Baleares Outbreaks in Morrocco Outbreaks in Tunisia Number of outbreaks Outbreaks in Argelia 76 28

26. 50 40 30 20 10 0 BTV-4 4 outbreaks BTV introduction in Balearic Islands 2003 *Only primary outbreaks in Baleares are considered Undereporting? Winds from Sardinia? Dust in Baleares Outbreaks* in Baleares Outbreaks in Morrocco Outbreaks in Tunisia Number of outbreaks Outbreaks in Argelia 4

27. Winds from Sardinia?

28. 50 40 30 20 10 0 BTV introduction in Andalucía 230 outbreaks BTV-4 2004 BTV-4 *Only primary outbreaks in Andalucía are considered Dust in Andalucía Outbreaks* in Andalucía Outbreaks in Morrocco Outbreaks in Tunisia Outbreaks in Argelia 230

29. 50 40 30 20 10 0 BTV introduction in Andalucía BTV-4 2005 *Only primary outbreaks in Andalucía are considered Dust in Andalucía Outbreaks* in Andalucía Outbreaks in Morrocco Undereporting? Overwintering? Outbreaks in Tunisia Outbreaks in Argelia

30. Conclusions • Culicoides introduction is most likely to occur in the south-east part of Spain and Canary Islands (sporadically in Balearic Islands) • Highest Culicoides introduction may occur between April and July • Outbreaks in N. Africa + Wind  High risk for introduction of BTV (AHS) infected Culicoides • Outbreaks in Argelia/Tunisia  Risk for Balearic Islands • Outbreaks in Morocco  Risk for Andalucía • (Only when high number of outbreaks in N. Africa occur???)

31. Future work (2009) Complete analysis of data for all Europe and for years 2007 and 2008 Study the correlation between dust introduction and outbreak ocurrence (include variables such as Tª, relative humidity, etc.) Include winds from other countries (not Africa) coming into Europe Analysis of the spatial origin of the wind and probability of Culicoides survival during the wind vehiculation Future modeling specifically for Culicoides introduction: “DREAM” adaptation for Culicoides  ”CREAM”??

32. Thanks for your attention !