TANTANGAN PENYIAPAN SDM DALAM MENDUKUNG MP3EI

1. TANTANGAN PENYIAPAN SDM DALAM MENDUKUNG MP3EI FASLI JALAL Seminar Internasional APTEKINDO TemuKarya XVII FT/FPTK/FKT se Indonesia, Makassar, 4 Mei 2012

2. Posisi 2011 PREDIKSI The Economist: Posisi Indonesia sekarang dimana? The Economist published its annual series called The World in 2011. the Economist was bullish on Indonesia. It predicted that, with 245 million people in 2011, Indonesia’s GDP will reach around US$ 806 billion, resulting in a GDP per capita of $ 3,280. By this figure, Indonesia’s GDP is predicted to exceed those of Turkey and the Netherlands, making Indonesia the 16th largest economic power in the world. Indonesia is forecast to have 6% per year GDP growth in 2011 and 2012.

3. Posisi 2008 PDB Negara 1-20, PDB per Kapita dan Populasi 2050 $bn 4 – 4.5 $bn 15 -17.5 $bn 26.679 $ 44.500 – 49.000 $ 14.250 – 15.500 $ 78.478 2045 2030 $bn 6.460 $ 20.600 2025 2014 $bn 1.206 $ 4.803 2011 $bn 806 $ 3.280 The Economist 2011

4. 6 KoridorEkonomi Indonesia Slide 4

5. Strategi 2 MP3EI Konektivitas

6. 22 Kegiatan Ekonomi Utama Perlu peningkatan Kapasitas Inovasi dan Teknologi

7. Penyiapan SDM Untuk MP3EI Perlu SDM dari berbagai disiplin serta tingkat pendidikan dan pelatihan untuk mendukung usaha pariwisata, konstruksi, pertanian, pertambangan dan industri SDM 22 Kegiatan Ekonomi Peter-nakan Kakao Pari-wisata Jabode-tabek Area KSN Selat Sunda Per-tanian Pangan Perikan-an Per-kayuan Karet Kelapa Sawit Peralat-an Trans-portasi Batu-bara Tele-matika Perka-palan Alut-sista Besi Baja Makan-an Minum-an Tekstil Bauksit Temba-ga Nikel Minyak dan Gas Perlu SDM dari berbagai disiplin serta tingkat pendidikan dan pelatihan untuk pembangunan infrastruktur SDM Kegiatan Konektivitas SDM Birokrasi SDM Pendidik,Peneliti,Perekayasa & IPTEK Perlu SDM dari berbagai disiplin untuk menjadi pendidik dan peneliti Pengajar POLI Pengajar SMK Pengajar AK Pereka-yasa Peneliti Insinyur Pengajar KURSUS Pengajar PERTI Perlu mengetahui kebutuhan dari setiap kegiatan di 6 Koridor Ekonomi

8. Pemetaan Kebutuhan SDM Pasokan Kebutuhan (MP3EI): 22 Kegiatan Ekonomi + Konektivitas Pendidikan & Kompetensi Tingkat Pendidikan Kawasan Investasi Sebaran Lokasi Industri Sebaran Lokasi Pendidikan Pendidikan Penghasil Angkatan Kerja SDM Ideal Penuhi Kebutuhan Investasi: Sertifikasi Keahlian & Ketrampilan Akreditasi Pendidikan Jumlah SDM Sesuai Teknologi Standar Kualitas Lulusan Pendidikan +Akademi Komunitas Perkembangan Pertumbuhan +Kursus Populasi Lulusan Pendidikan +SMK Situasi Sosial Setempat Pertumbuhan Lulusan Pendidikan

9. A. Pemetaan SDM B. Pemetaan Iptek C. Penguatan Pendidikan D. Penguatan Iptek D. Penguatan Pusat Kajian F. Jadwal & Organisasi Kebutuhan Dan Ketersediaan SDM Konektivitas: Infra-struk-tur Lain Sisi Pasokan Sisi Permintaan Tingkat Pendidikan Pendidikan & Kompetensi Sebaran Lokasi Pendidikan Jenis & Rentang Konektivitas Jalan Pelabuhan Power Bandara Rel Utilitas Telematika Lain & Energi Kereta Air Lain Lulusan Pendidikan Sebagai Angkatan Kerja Sdm Ideal Penuhi Kebutuhan Pembangunan Konektivitas: Akreditasi Pendidikan Sertifikasi Keahlian & Ketrampilan Standar Kualitas Lulusan Pendidikan Perkembangan Teknologi Populasi Lulusan Pendidikan Perkembangan Peralatan Pertumbuhan Lulusan Pendidikan Peningkatan Volume

10. A. Pemetaan SDM B. Pemetaan Iptek C. Penguatan Pendidikan D. Penguatan Iptek D. Penguatan Pusat Kajian F. Jadwal & Organisasi Sumber Informasi Pemetaan Kebutuhan • Data/informasi dari MP3EI • Badan Pengembangan SDM,Kementerian/ • LPNK • Asosiasi Perusahaan, • Industri, • Asosiasi Pengusaha • Asosiasi Profesi • Keahlian, • Asosiasi Profesi Keterampilan • Pemerintah Daerah, • Koordinasi Tiap Koridor • Pembandingan dengan: Negara berpertumbuh-an tinggi • Data dari sumber-sumber lain

11. A. Pemetaan SDM B. Pemetaan Iptek C. Penguatan Pendidikan D. Penguatan Iptek D. Penguatan Pusat Kajian F. Jadwal & Organisasi Pemetaan Penyediaan SDM

12. Posisi SDM 2010 TINGKAT PENDIDIKAN INDONESIA 164% Dari 7,2% menjadi 19% di tahun 2025 TINGGI 96% MALAYSIA MENENGAH Dari 22,4% menjadi 44% di tahun 2025 DASAR OECD

13. A. Pemetaan SDM B. Pemetaan Iptek C. Penguatan Pendidikan D. Penguatan Iptek D. Penguatan Pusat Kajian F. Jadwal & Organisasi Pemenuhan Peningkatan Pendidikan Tenaga Menengah 2010 2015 2020 2025 Pendidikan kecakapan hidup untuk melatih masyarakat agar dapat bekerja (pekerja) Meningkatkan jumlah siswa SMK pada 22 bidang kegiatan ekonomi utama di setiap koridor Meningkatkan jumlah tenaga pengajar SMK 22 bidang kegiatan ekonomi utama di setiap koridor 1 3 2 Pendidikan kewirausahaan masyarakat agar mampu merintis usaha mandiri (wirausaha) 4 Diolah dari: Encyclopedia of Nations, http://www.nationsencyclopedia.com/ diakses Januari 2011

27. 1. Trends The 20% meant rapid increase in spending in 2008-2009,and flat budget projected in real terms The 20 percent rule was first met in 2009 Spending doubled in real terms since 2001 Most of the increase happened in 2009 Two main consequences: Budget will probably remain around 20% The projected budget growth is flat in real terms Projections based on total government budget And 20 % rule Total Public Spending on Education Source: MoF and World Bank projections Source: MoF, SIKD, RENSTRA Notes: Projected budget for sub-national government in 2010. Total state expenditure include central budget and transfers to regions.

28. 1. Trends Big progress in coverageStill low in ECD, senior secondary and higher education Gross Enrollment Rate Progress: Universal coverage of SD Rapid increase in ECED Big increase in secondary and higher education Challenges: Still low in ECD, especially in some provinces Still low access in higher education Source: Own calculations using Susenas

29. 1. Trends Enrollment rate in secondary has caught up with neighbors, the bigger challenges are tertiary and ECD Source: World Bank, Edstats, last year available Note: Data for 2009 for all except Malaysia, Philippines, Argentina and Brazil (2008)

30. 1. Trends Improved equity: big progress on coverage for the poor, but still high drop-out in SMU The poor are enrolling earlier and staying longer in school Share enrolled by age 6 went up from 50% to 75% Share still enrolled at age 15 increased from 60% to 75% After age 15 the share drops dramatically (only 30% by age 18) There was no improvement for the richer quintile Richest Quintile Poorest Quintile SD SD SMP SMU SMP SMU Source: Own calculations using Susenas

31. 2. Finding Resources Most of the budget is spent on basic education, secondary and higher education get a low share of the budget • A large share of additional resources from 20% went to basic education • Higher Education also got a good share • The importance of basic education in the budget will be reduced as Indonesia develops Source: Own calculations using Note: Teacher salaries reclassified by program using teacher numbers Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank (2008 or latest year available)

32. 2. Finding Resources About ¼ of the budget flows directly to schools, little in scholarships Share of national budget by direct recipient Source: Own calculations using APBDN (2009) and SKID (2009) Note: *Civil servants exclude MoNE and MoRA staff

33. Share of the state budget by destination 2. Finding Resources Additional resources from 20% rule went mainly to salaries, teachers certification and higher education Average share of total state budget 1.8 2 0.7 0.6 11 8.5 1.9 1.6 Source: own calculations using SKID, Ministry of Finance Source: own calculations using SKID, Ministry of Finance Note: Included only categories of spending that increased significantly after 20% rule was met

34. 2. Finding Resources Number of teachers increased a faster pace than studentsat all levels of education Growth in Number of Teachers by Level Growth in Number of Students by Level Source: Ministry of Education and Culture

35. 2. Finding Resources At the current levels, STR is not correlated with learningif class size is below maximum of 32 • STR in Indonesia has been going down in the last decade • In schools with low STR, increasing STR should not have a negative effect on learning Student Teacher Ratio The relationship between Student Teacher Ratio and learning is not significant Bahasa Indonesia Score Student Teacher Ratio Source: World Bank School Based Management Survey, 2010 Source: Own calculations using MoEC

36. 2. Finding Resources Student teacher ratio is the main driver for differences in spending across schools The relationship between Student Teacher Ratio and spending per student is very strong Teacher distribution has the largest effect on equity across schools Teacher redistribution addresses efficiency and equity Increasing 5 students per teacher reduces spending by 1/3 Source: World Bank School Based Management Survey, 2010

37. 2. Finding Resources The magnitude of the redistribution is vast, existing policies need coordination and expansion • Preliminary calculations suggest the magnitude of the reallocation is very large, mostly within districts but also across districts • But these are using 2008 data, and NOT including non-PNS and not including retiring teachers Source: Own calculations using NUPTK and MoEC data, 2008

38. PosturAnggaranPendidikanTahun 2011 dan 2012