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Space Weather Forecasting Joseph M. Kunches Chief, Space Weather Operations NOAA Space Environment Center Boulder, Col

Proton Forecasts from SEC. Produced daily for 1-3 days forwardUtilize active region information and -- if eruptive already occurred -- LASCO Coronagraph, GOES SXI, and ACE EPAM dataHave not improved appreciably as predicting eruptive event still elusiveProduced as event occursUses GOES, SOHO, and ACE dataHave improved over the last few years as more data are available, as evidenced by excellent predictions during Halloween Storms 2003.

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Space Weather Forecasting Joseph M. Kunches Chief, Space Weather Operations NOAA Space Environment Center Boulder, Col

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    1. Space Weather Forecasting Joseph M. Kunches Chief, Space Weather Operations NOAA Space Environment Center Boulder, Colorado Joseph.Kunches@noaa.gov

    2. Proton Forecasts from SEC Produced daily for 1-3 days forward Utilize active region information and -- if eruptive already occurred -- LASCO Coronagraph, GOES SXI, and ACE EPAM data Have not improved appreciably as predicting eruptive event still elusive Produced as event occurs Uses GOES, SOHO, and ACE data Have improved over the last few years as more data are available, as evidenced by excellent predictions during Halloween Storms 2003

    3. Daily Forecasts There is a strong need to know the value of the predictions Forecast verification is a necessary component in ascertaining value Daily forecasts are difficult due to the additional aspect of needing to predict the solar eruptive as well as the proton characteristics that may follow

    4. Verification Statistics Results are for 1-3 day lead time forecasts issued daily For explanation of terms go to http://sec.noaa.gov/forecast_verification.html Forecasts show a modest level of skill

    9. Event-Driven Forecasts Include start, max, and predicted flux � no spectrum as yet What predictions will Mars mission require? Commercial airlines serve as an example in defining requirements Airlines want 8 hour lead time, a predicted end time, and peak flux Mars and Lunar scenarios probably will want spectral information All Clear desirable for EVA�s Need 360o monitoring to safeguard against missed events Improved models necessary to account for radial and azimuthal separation

    10. Halloween Storms 2003 EXCELLENT! 13 Radiation Storm (i.e., SEP) days, Oct. 26 � Nov. 7 4 Warnings issued 31 Alerts issued 195 minute average lead time 0 missed warnings 0% false alarm rate

    11. Summary Two types of forecasts, daily and event-driven, are produced by SEC Event-driven forecasts are the most skillful Both types of forecasts rely heavily on GOES, SOHO, and ACE observations To forecast for a Mars mission, a full suite of similar instruments must be flown, spatially optimized for full observational capability Appropriate models need to be employed to fill in both spatial and temporal voids

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