Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union

1. Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union Lecture 3 Sociology SOCI 20182

2. Course website • http://course.health-studies.org/2010/

3. Basic population concepts • Population number and population distribution.

4. Distribution by Population Number, 1998

5. Distribution by Population Density 2000

6. Distribution by Population Density in Ukraine (persons per sq.km), 2001

7. Population growth • Population natural movement – population changes due to births and deaths as natural processes in contrast to ‘mechanical’ changes due to migration • Population growth can be expressed in absolute numbers.

8. Growth of Russian population from 1897 to 2002 (in million) Red – urban population; Blue – rural population; Upper line - total

9. Population of Russia after 2000 Source: Goskomstat Russia

10. Components of population growth – births, deaths and migration • Population growth between times T1 and T2 can be measured using the following balancing equation: P2 = P1+ B – D + I – O, where • P2 – population at time T2 • P1 - population at time T1 • B – number of births between T1 and T2 • D – number of deaths between T1 and T2 • I – number of immigrants between T1 and T2 • O – number of out-migrants (emigrants) between T1 and T2

11. Growth of population in three FSU countries

12. Population changes in Russia and Ukraine(population in million)

13. The concept of demographic rates • In demography rates typically represent “occurrence/exposure” ratios • Takes into account the size of population Rates are usually measured for specific period of time (period rates)

14. Growth rates in demography • Population growth can be expressed using rates. Helps to compare countries with different population numbers. Rates are measured for specific period of time (usually for one calendar year) • Crude Birth rate (CBR) – number of live births per 100,000 population during year X • Crude Death rate (CDR) - number of deaths per 100,000 population during year X • Rate of natural increase: CBR - CDR • Rate of total increase: CBR – CDR + CMR • CMR – crude migration rate per 100,000 = CRIM - CROM CRIM – crude rate of In-migration; CROM – crude rate of Out-migration. Both measured per 100,000 population. Population decline or depopulation occurs when rate of total population increase becomes negative (population decrease)

15. Depopulation in Russia or the “Russian cross”

16. Depopulation of Russian regionsNatural increase per 1000, 2003

17. Administrative division in RussiaTypes of regions • Oblast – the most common type • Kray – similar to oblast • National republic – higher level of autonomy • National okrug – part of oblast, kray or national republic • Moscow and St. Petersburg are counted separately by state statistics

18. New type of administrative division – federal okrug

19. Population growth rateDirect estimation

20. Annual population growth rate in percent, as listed in the CIA World Factbook (2006 estimate)

21. FSU countries experiencing population decline in 2006-2007 • Belarus • Estonia • Latvia • Lithuania • Moldova • Russia • Ukraine

22. Percent growth in the FSU countries, 1999

23. Population structure • Age and sex are the main components of population structure • Demographers commonly use population pyramids to describe both age and sex distributions of populations. Youthful populations are represented by pyramids with a broad base of young children and a narrow apex of older people, and older populations are characterized by more uniform numbers of people in the age categories.

24. Population pyramid Russia, 2002

25. Types of population pyramids Young growing population

26. Types of population pyramids Aging population structure

27. Russia in 1989 and 2002

28. Russia in 2008 Source: Goskomstat Russia

29. Other commonly used characteristics of population • Residence (urban or rural) • Education • Marital status (never married, married, widowed, divorced) • Race or ethnicity • Citizenship

30. Percent urban population, 2000

31. Distribution by education status, Russia from 1959 to 2002

32. Education system in Russia (and most FSU countries) • Higher professional – more than 10 years of education (usually 15+) corresponds to college degree in the United States • Secondary vocational – 8 years of school + two years of professional education • Secondary general – 10 years of school • Basic general – 8 years of school • Primary general – 4 years of school

33. Distribution by marital status per 1000 population 16+ years Russia from 1989 to 2002

34. Distribution by ethnicity, Russia 2002

35. Nationalities of the Soviet Union: Police leaflet

36. Three the most common nationalities in Russia Russian Ukrainian Tatar

37. National composition for population of Ukraine according to 2001 census The part of those whose mother tongue is Ukrainian totals 67.5% of the population of Ukraine in 2001, this is by 2.8 percentage points more than in 1989. The percentage of those whose mother tongue is Russian totals 29.6% of the population (decrease by 3.2%).

38. Distribution by citizenshipRussia 2002

39. Changes in Russian population between 1989 and 2002 censuses • Population decline – by 1,855,000 or 1.5%. The most rapid decline is observed during the last 10 years. From 1993 to 2006 population of Russia decreased by 4.5%. But population increase in Central and Southern federal okrugs from 1989 to 2002. However, after 1993 negative natural increase (decline) in all federal okrugs. • Non-uniformity in population distribution increased. • Stagnation of urbanization (deurbanization?)

40. Synthetic cohorts in demography • A hypothetical cohort of persons that is represented when data for a year or other brief period are treated as though they relate to a single cohort. • For example, the total fertility rate, which summarizes the age-specific birth rates for a population of women in a given year, may be assumed to represent the average total children born per woman for a synthetic cohort of women that passed through life bearing children at the given rates. • Synthetic or hypothetical cohorts are based on cross-sectional distributions • Demographic measures based on hypothetical cohorts are called period measures (e.g., period life tables)

41. Reading • Anderson, B. 2002. "Russia faces depopulation? Dynamics of population decline," Population and Environment 23(5): 437-64.