Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union

1. Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union Lecture 10 Sociology SOCI 20182

2. Current trends in life expectancy

3. Current trends in life expectancy in Moscow and some Eastern European countries

4. Main features of recent improvement • Highest gains in working ages (15-64) • Main improvements due to causes directly related to alcohol, accidents and respiratory diseases • These improvements may be related to the recent measures of increased control after alcohol production adopted in 2005

5. Additional factor – fluctuations in alcohol-related mortality Age-standardized mortality of men (per 100,000) from accidental poisoning by alcohol

6. Improvement in life expectancy in 2005-2006, Men

7. Improvement in life expectancy in 2005-2006, Women

8. Migration Different types of migration: • International migration • Internal migration • Labor migration • Forced migration • Repatriation

9. Migration statistics in the Soviet Union • Soviet Union had unique and very accurate system of migration statistics (for internal migration) • This system was closely related to the passport system and residence registration (‘propiska’). Data were collected by the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) • Change of address was accompanied by departure registration and arrival registration • The system was totalitarian (migration required permission from police)

10. Migration statistics in Russia (1990s) • Soviet system of migration statistics was destroyed • Main changes happened in 1995 when the system of registration was modified. All migrants were divided into two categories: (1) those who change their permanent address; (2) those who register for temporary residence. • Migration statistics covers only permanent migrants. • Main limitation: incomplete coverage

11. Staying in Russia required registration in police Police could stop person without any reason and ask for registration

12. Problems with migration statistics in Russia (continue) • Problems also existed in registration of external migration (migration to/from other countries) • Restrictive laws about obtaining permanent residence in Russia were adopted in 2000 and then in 2003. As a result, many immigrants registered as temporary migrants and were not accounted by the state statistics (migration underestimation)

13. Migrants often have problems with police Deportation of illegal immigrants

14. Migration flows in the FSU countries Until recently only Russia and Belarus had positive migration rates

15. Migration in FSU countries • Migration rates are declining in most countries. Exception – Kazakhstan • Migration outside FSU countries is also declining. Most emigrants go to USA, Germany and Israel • Over 80% of migrants are at working ages

16. Migration between Russia and FSU countries • In 1980-1989 positive migration flows to Russia from all FSU countries except for the Baltic countries • In 1990-1994 positive migration flows from all FSU countries except for Ukraine • In 1995-1999 positive migration flows from all FSU countries except for Belarus • With outside world (non-FSU countries) migration rate was always negative (out-migration exceeded in-migration)

17. Labor migration in Russia • Most labor migrants come to Russia illegally. Researchers estimate over 4 million illegal migrants in Russia. • Until 2005 the number of official migrants comprised no more than 5% of all labor migrants • In January 2007 – new legislation was adopted, which facilitated official registration for labor migrants

18. Labor migrants in Russia Migrants often occupy low-skilled jobs

19. Growth of official labor migrants in Russia

20. Labor migrants to Russia in 2006 (official data) • 16.9% came from Ukraine • 10.4% came from Uzbekistan • 9.7% came from Tadjikistan • 10% came from Turkey • 20.8% came from China • 40% work in construction • 30% work in trade

21. According to surveys • 70% of migrants are men • Mean age: 32-33 years • 35-40% have 3 or more dependents • About 50% had no stable work in their country of origin • 40-50% could be called “very poor” before migration

22. Recent tendencies in labor migration in Russia • Proportion of migrants from Central Asia is increasing • Cultural distance between migrants and local population is increasing – 3% of migrants in Moscow and 17% in Astrakhan (Southern city) know Russian “poorly” • Educational level of migrants is decreasing

23. Education of migrants

24. Foreign labor migrants by industry

25. Russia will depend on labor migrants • By 2015 labor force in Russia will decrease by 8 million people; by 2025 – by 18-19 million

26. New migration policy in Russia • On March 17 2005 President Putin called stimulation of migration processes to be one of the most important task • New laws “On migration accounting of foreign citizens and persons without citizenship in Russian Federation” and “On legal status of foreign citizens” were adopted on July 18 2006 and significantly facilitated migration to Russia

27. New migration policy in Russia • Registration at the place of residence (all immigrants) – simple procedure, which does not require permission (in the past it required personal visit to police for all persons living at the registration address) • Permission to work (non-visa immigrants) – simple procedure (in the past permission was given to employer) • Migrant quotas – separately for visa and non-visa immigrants. No quotas for qualified specialists.

28. Registration among migrants to Russia before and after the new migration laws (survey results in 2007) Question: Have you registered?

29. Obtaining work permit among migrants to Russia before and after the new migration laws (survey results in 2007) Question: Have you obtained your work permit?

30. Gender differences in registration and obtaining work permit among migrants to Russia (2007)

31. Age differences in registration and obtaining work permit among migrants to Russia (2007)

32. Education differences in registration and obtaining work permit among migrants to Russia (2007)

33. Ethnic differences in registration and obtaining work permit among migrants to Russia (2007)

34. Positive results of new migration policy in Russia • More accurate data about total number of immigrants including labor migrants. During 2007 eight million entries to Russia were registered • Significant decrease of illegal immigration, increase of legitimate status of temporary labor migrants. Two-fold increase of taxation base • Better estimation of the number of labor migrants, which is about 4.5 million in Russia in 2007

35. Russia and international standards of migration statistics • International standards consider two major statistical categories – • flows (number of persons changed their place of residence during the studied period) and • stocks – number of migrants at the particular territory on a specific date.

36. Russia and international standards of migration statistics • Flows are registered by the current migration statistics (number of persons changed their place of residence during the current year), border statistics (number of departures and entries during the year), statistics of foreign workers getting their jobs, statistics of foreign students, etc.

37. Improvement of migration statistics after 2007 • Since 2007 Rosstat (former Goskomstat) gets data from the Federal Migration Service about foreign migrants • Since 2008 Rosstat gets data from the FMS about migrants-Russian citizens registered at their new residence for more than a year (information about ethnicity removed but info about the purpose of migration added) • In the forthcoming 2010 census more questions related to migration are added

38. Improvement of migration statistics after 2007 (continue) • Since 2007 Federal Migration Service presents information on its activity at FMS website http://www.fms.gov.ru • Administrative systems became more open (e.g., statistics on obtaining Russian citizenship) • Development of these information systems is at the beginning now, so we will see the results later.

39. Russia and international standards of migration statistics • Stocks can be estimated by census (number of foreign citizens living in the country or number of persons born abroad), by FMS (persons with residence permit or work permit, refugees). • Standard methods of migration statistics are not completely applicable to Russia and other FSU countries, which were a single country in the past (e.g., number of persons born abroad).

40. Russia and international standards of migration statistics • In the past moving from one part of the country to another one was made by the citizens of the same country within the boarders of one country • Most migrations occurred before the Soviet Union dissolution. For example, censuses in Ukraine and Belarus showed that 85% and 68% of persons born outside these countries migrated before the Soviet Union dissolution (so cannot be considered as international migrants).

41. New citizens in Russia In 1992-2006 Russian citizenship obtained more than 6 million people

42. New citizens in Russia by the country of previous residence

43. Internal migration in Russia • Five zones (migration in 1991-2003) • European accepting zone. Accepted 1.9 million people due to migration from other parts of Russia • European North and Republics of Northern Caucasus – lost population (about 20% of population received by European accepting zone) • Eastern out-migration zone – 60% of the Russian territory but only 10% of population. Provided about 60% of population received by European accepting zone (strong Western drift)

44. Major migration zones of Russia

45. Migration rate per 100,000 in 1997

46. Proportion of migrants in population (%)

47. Migration flows in Moscow

48. Growth of Moscow population

49. After WWII migration to Moscow exceeded natural increase (rates per 1000)

50. Net migration in Russia and Moscow (in thousand)