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Simulation of Seasonal and Interannual Variability in the Caspian Sea

Simulation of Seasonal and Interannual Variability in the Caspian Sea. W. Paul Budgell Dept. of Physics and Physical Oceanography , Memorial University of Newfoundland Ralf Toumi , Andrew Singleton, Catherine Reifen, James Farley Nicolls

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Simulation of Seasonal and Interannual Variability in the Caspian Sea

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  1. SimulationofSeasonal and InterannualVariability in theCaspianSea W. Paul Budgell Dept. ofPhysics and PhysicalOceanography, Memorial University of Newfoundland Ralf Toumi, Andrew Singleton, Catherine Reifen, James FarleyNicolls Dept. ofPhysics, Imperial College, London

  2. Outline of Talk • Background/Motivation • ROMS Implementation • Forcing • Some Results • Conclusions/Future work

  3. Motivation • Regional climate change – but first we must gain confidence on recent history and variability • Dynamical downscaling, but after Gildas Cambon’s talk will revisit statistical downscaling • Regional coupled environmental model • Operational applications in oil spills, localized wave climate, contaminant /salt/aerosol transport

  4. Caspian Sea Bathymetry (m)

  5. CSL in IPCC 20th Century Simulations From: Elguindi and Giorgi, Clim. Dyn. 26 (2006) 395-379.

  6. Projected Changes in CSL From: Elguindi and Giorgi, Clim. Dyn. 26 (2006) 395-379.

  7. WRF Simulation Nov. 1996

  8. ROMS Set-Up • Kate Hedström’sbranch • Icedynamics/thermodynamics – shallow • Wetting-drying (dcrit = 0.2 m) • Sealevel is dependent upon (E-P) • 4 km resolution • 32 and 20 verticallevels • Vtransform=2, Vstretching=2 • θs=8, θb=0.4, hc=10 m

  9. ROMS Set-Up Cont’d • River inflow specified for 6 largest rivers • Atmospheric forcing from ERA40, ERA Interim, or WRF (down-scaling ERA40) • Runs for 1958-2001 (ERA40), 1989-2008 (ERA Interim), or 1980-2001 (WRF) • Climate sensitivity run with reduced river inflow for 1980-2001 (’2045-2066’)

  10. Some Results

  11. ROMS Sea Ice Extent

  12. SST Comparison

  13. Caspian Sea Levels

  14. Conclusions/Future Work • E-P sea level + wetting/drying + sea ice works • Change in surface area important • Very sensitive to river runoff • WRF higher wind speeds improve evaporation • ROMS-WRF coupling needed • ROMS-WRF-SWAN coupling needed

  15. Job Opportunity • Dept. of Physics, Imperial College, London is hiring post-doc to conduct development of Caspian Regional Environmental Model. • CREM based on coupled ROMS-WRF-SWAN for the Caspian Sea

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