Caspian Sea Region and Oil

1. Caspian Sea Region and Oil A modern Silk Road or The next conflict zone?

4. Caspian Sea Region-Historical Background

5. Mongol Empire

6. Spread of Islam

7. Ottoman Empire

9. The Caucasus

10. Chechnya

11. Conflict in Chechnya • mid 19th Century: mid Caucasian wars with Russian Empire. 50 years to subdue Chechens • Sufism • Bolshevik Revolution: promised autonomy • Soviets: NOT. 1944: 100,000 Chechens (along with 7 other ethnic groups deported to Kazakstan) • Repression of Islam in USSR, but not in Chechny • Wahhabism-linked to Bin Laden • 1994-1996 war: stalemate • 1999: war resurfaces due to bombings in Moscow (politically determined?) • Young Russian conscripts • Enormous devistation and ruthlessness by Russia

12. Russia invades Chechnya

13. Grozny, Chechnya after 1999-2000 bombing

15. Russia’s motivation for persistence • Nationalism • 1st domino in potential string of secessions: • Dagestan, Ingushetia, Osettia, Tatarstan in north • Fear of Islamic world • Would allow development of another Islamic state on its frontier • Wahhabism and political Islams • Oil: • Oil + Gas= 40% of Russian export value • = 44% of gov’t revenues

16. “Georgia’s always on my, my, my, my, my ,my, my, my, my…. mind”

17. Pankisi Gorge

18. Armenia/Azerbaijan

19. Iran

20. Iran • Shah of Iran: 1941-1979 • Some reforms in education, land redistribution, development etc. but also increasing disparities in wealth from oil, supported by US • SAVAK and repression of opposition • Overthrow by Ayatollah Khomeini-led fundamentalists (Shiite Muslim)-authoritarian return to tradition and repression • Allied with Russia over anti-Americanism and US relations with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. • Enemy of US: Oil companies forbidden to do business here. Sanctions

21. Russian Empire (amidst the “Great Game”)

22. USSR

23. Soviet Russia Policy: The “Stans” • 1921: USSR did not want 1 Turkestan policy • Broke the area up into 5 republics: • Kazakstan • Turkmenistan • Uzbekistan • Tajikistan • Kyrgistan

24. “Turkestan”

30. Soviet Political Tactics to maintain Peace in the ‘Stans • Heavily Russified (especially Kazakstan) • Also Russianized: • cyrillic script and Russian culture • Repression of religion, especially Islam here • Destruction of mosques and schools • These went underground • Soviet and Nationalistic identity--not Cossack—forced end of pastoralism—”we have borders” • Disrupted economy: pastoralism soviet industrial agriculture environmental destruction • Elites supported Communism—handpicked local loyal soviet apparatchiks • Divided territory strategically-Fergana valley

31. Fergana Valley

32. Independence 1991—6 Big challenges1. Political • These are monarchies, not democracies –”illiberal democracies” • Autocratic leaders, almost kings- • Elections not free • Turkmenistan most autocratic • Uzbekistan repression of opponents of leader Karimov • Hunger strike in Kyrgistan • All members of former Communist elites • Weak state: little power, prestige, capability • Corruption

33. Corruption index

34. 2. Economic challenges • Economic decline • Loss of Soviet Markets • Dramatic decline in economy after1992 • Weak infrastructure: dirt roads, no roads • Landlocked: depend on Russian goodwill for access • Low foreign investment

37. 3. Islamic Challenge • Area is not Islamic fundamentalist, yet it is reviving • Turkistanis are not formally religious; only 20% attend mosque-yet Islam is a daily part of their lives • Social/political movement at grassroots/people sick of corruption, poverty • Promoted from Iran/Afghanistan

38. 4. External interests • Russia: wants traditional economic links and control, but is worried about radical Islam • Iran-has religious/political/economic ties, especially to Tajikistan • Turkey: religious/Turkic speaking, pro-West • China: economic/political connections: worried about its border • US: OIL

39. 5. Lack of Nationalism? • Missed opportunity in 1917 • 1917-1924: ethnic movements got foothold in other places for nationalist incubation (Baltics, Serbia) • Regional identity (Turkestan) rather than national or ethnic ones • Still, trying to engage in national building, but this is hard because top down movements don’t work

40. 6. Regional Security and Cooperation • “Bishkek 6”: Kyrgistan, Kazakstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, China, Russia • Promote regional economic cooperation • Build up armed forces in Cental Asia • Confine Taliban to Afghanistan • Oppose IMU(Islamic Movement for Uzbeckistan) and allies • Control oil/gas routes (worried about US interest in oil)

42. Kazakstan • Extremely repressive gov • Passive electorate • Huge potential oil wealth: 30 bbls • Large Russian pop in north

43. Uzbekistan • 30 million people • (v. 15 million Kazakstan, 5 million Turkmenistan) • Famous Islamic religious and historical sites • Samarkand, Tashkent • Most militant islamist group: IMU trying to overthrow gov; suffered in war against Taliban • US Airbase (also Kyrgistan)

44. Samarkand

45. Tashkent

46. Tajikistan • Different than other Central Asian countries • Settled, Iranian language • 1991: weak regime backed by Moscow as buffer against Afghanistan1992-1996: civil war: Pro-Russians Tajiks v. non-Islamic Tajik minorities/Uzbeks • 50000 killed, 1 million refugees • 1996: ceasefire Tajik(70%) % Islamists (30%) • Russia worried about this—troops on border • Russia supports president with 96% of vote

47. The The “Great Game” Lineup • Russia: Armenia, Kazakstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgistan, (Iran) • West/US: Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Turkey, (Troops in Uzbek and Kyrg; wargames in Kazak) • China: Kazakstan (economic) • Iran: Turkmenistan, Kazakstan

49. Shatterbelt (Cohen 1973) • Complex ethnic/cultural mosaic • Location of global resource • History of local conflicts • Attracts interests of world powers • Global-local alliances • Potential for major extra-regional conflicts (could spill over) Islamic Scenarios

50. “Black Gold”