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Rachel J. Roginsky, Principal Pinnacle Advisory Group

GREATER BOSTON LODGING OUTLOOK 2003. Rachel J. Roginsky, Principal Pinnacle Advisory Group. WWW.PINNACLE-ADVISORY.COM. U.S. Lodging Market. Total United States Key Performance Indicators Percent Change May Year to Date. Source: Smith Travel Research. Note: Preliminary May 2002.

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Rachel J. Roginsky, Principal Pinnacle Advisory Group

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  1. GREATER BOSTON LODGING OUTLOOK 2003 Rachel J. Roginsky, Principal Pinnacle Advisory Group

  2. WWW.PINNACLE-ADVISORY.COM

  3. U.S. Lodging Market

  4. Total United StatesKey Performance Indicators Percent ChangeMay Year to Date Source: Smith Travel Research Note: Preliminary May 2002

  5. New England Lodging Market

  6. New England States YTD May 2002 Change in Occupancy, Average Rate and RevPAR Source: Smith Travel Research

  7. Suburban Boston Lodging Market

  8. Suburban Boston Occupancy 1996 - 2001 Source: Smith Travel Research

  9. Suburban Boston Average Daily Rate 1996- 2001 Source: Smith Travel Research

  10. Suburban BostonRevPAR 1996 - 2001 Source: Smith Travel Research

  11. Suburban Boston YTD May 2002 2001 2002 % Chg Occupancy 62.3% 53.8% -13.6% Average Daily Rate $111.61 $96.66 -13.4% RevPAR $69.49 $51.98 -25.2% Source: Smith Travel Research

  12. Suburban Boston Change in Occupancy, Average Rate and RevPAR by Quarter 1Q 2001 - 2Q 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research

  13. Suburban Boston 2002 * Limited Boston Related Demand * Improved Corporate Demand * Slower Supply Growth * Limited ADR Growth * 9/11 Effect (Year over Year Growth)

  14. Suburban Boston 2002 Projection 2001 2002 % Chg Occupancy 61.4% 61.6% 0.3% Average Daily Rate $108.30 $98.36 -9.2% RevPAR $66.50 $60.59 -8.9%

  15. Suburban Boston 2003 * Lack of Boston-Related Demand * Improved Corporate Demand * Limited Supply Growth * Minor ADR Growth

  16. Suburban Boston 2003 Projection 2002 2003 % Chg Occupancy 61.6% 64.8% 5.3% Average Daily Rate $98.35 $101.13 2.8% RevPAR $60.58 $65.53 8.17%

  17. Boston / Cambridge Lodging Market

  18. Boston/Cambridge Occupancy 1997 - 2001 Source: Pinnacle Perspective

  19. Boston/Cambridge Average Daily Rate1997-2001 Source: Pinnacle Perspective

  20. Boston/Cambridge RevPAR1997 - 2001 Source: Pinnacle Perspective

  21. Boston/Cambridge 2001 Change in RevPAR by Market Area Source: Pinnacle Perspective

  22. Boston/Cambridge YTD June 2002 2001 2002 % Chg Occupancy 71.4% 68.8% -3.9% Average Daily Rate $188.63 $163.51 -13.3% RevPAR $134.70 $112.56 -16.4% Source: Pinnacle Perspective

  23. Boston/Cambridge YTD June 2002 RevPAR Change By Market Area Source: Pinnacle Perspective

  24. Boston/Cambridge Occupancy by Quarter 1Q 2000 – Q4 2002 Source: Pinnacle Perspective

  25. Boston/Cambridge Average Daily Rate by Quarter 1Q 2000 – 2Q 2002 Source: Pinnacle Perspective

  26. Boston/Cambridge RevPAR by Quarter1Q 2000 – 2Q 2002 Source: Pinnacle Perspective

  27. Boston/Cambridge Change in Occupancy, Average Rate and RevPAR by Quarter 1Q 2001 - 2Q 2002 Source: Pinnacle Perspective

  28. Boston/Cambridge 2002 • * Corporate Demand • Some signs of improvement • The recovery? • * Leisure Demand • Likely to remain strong • Rate Driven and Regional • * Group Demand • Pace is ahead of ’01 the rest of the year • * New Supply • Minor – Only 1.9 percent

  29. Boston Cambridge 2002 Projection 2001 2002 % Chg Occupancy 69.6% 72.0% 3.4% Average Daily Rate $182.91 $172.10 -5.9% RevPAR $127.31 $123.91 -2.7%

  30. Boston/Cambridge 2003 • * Corporate Demand • Continued Improvement • Negotiated Rates are flat to –10% • * Leisure Demand • Return of International • Increased Rates after 1Q • * Group Demand • Weak 1Q, Moderate Remainder • * New Supply • Major – 5.5%

  31. New Supply 2002 - 2003 • Nine Zero – 6/02 • Hampton Inn Cambridge – 6/02 • Ritz Carlton – 11/02 • Commonwealth Hotel – 9/02 • Kimpton Cambridge – 3/03 • Residence Inn C’Town – 3/03 • Embassy Suites – 3/03

  32. Boston Cambridge 2003 Projection 2002 2003 % Chg Occupancy 72.0% 71.0% -1.4% Average Daily Rate $172.10 $176.40 2.5% RevPAR $123.91 $125.25 1.1%

  33. GREATER BOSTON LODGING OUTLOOK 2003 Rachel J. Roginsky, Principal Matthew R. Arrants, Director Pinnacle Advisory Group

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