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Arab Spring

The wave of „Arab Spring” has generated an atmosphere of hope and<br>enthusiasm within and beyond the borders of the Arab World. The journalists<br>termed the process as the ,,Arab revolution”1, and it was expected that the<br>downfall of old dictators would bring about basic changes in North Africa and<br>the Middle East. Nevertheless, the results have remained limited yet. Although some authoritarian leaders have left the scene, this does not automatically mean a regime change. The structures and the reliable persons of the former dictators are still in power, as it is obvious in the case of the key country of the region, Egypt. If the protesters of the „Arab Spring” would like to reach a real breakthrough, which the scientists can call ,,revolution”, they must continue the efforts to transform the political and economic system of their countries into a modern one, which is able to give adequate answers to the internal and external challenges of the 21st century. Although there is no silver path for the success in this transformation, and each country should find her own way, it is likely that the halfway measures will not bring the hoped better life for the Arabs, and these insufficient solutions will only increase the gap between the different parts of the society – and between the Muslim world and the West.

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Arab Spring

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  1. Arab Spring Lt. Col. JÁNOS BESENYŐ (PhD)

  2. Think about it… • What comes to mind when you think about the Arab Spring? • Is it revolution? What is a revolution? • Why now?Why this region? • Is it over and/or was it successful? • What was/is the significance? • Effect on Europe? USA?

  3. History • Unexpected social and national movement which started in 2010-2011. • Named “Arabic Spring” to make a reference to the people spring from 1848, 1968, and 1989 • Tunis: The self-immolation of a street vendor Mohammed Bouazizi (26) in the town of Sidi Bouzid - protest - „Jasmin Revolution” - President Ben Ali ousted, and government overthrown. • Egypt: Khaled Said beaten dead by police - protest - President Hosni Mubarak ousted, and government overthrown. • Libya: civil war, UN, NATO, EU, USA role - intervention - Kadhafi overthrown • Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain: Civil uprisings against the governments, despite government changes. • Morocco, Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq, and Oman: Major protests implementing government changes in response to protests. • Algeria, Iran, Mauritania,Western Sahara etc.: protests without changes • Civil War in Syria

  4. Characteristics • Arab, not Sectarian (in general) • Lower classes, Students, Laborers, Military • Populist • Role of the Social Media (Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, etc.) • Civil Resistance (strikes, protests, and demonstrations) • U.S. supported authoritarian regimes • After a short period western countries support the Arab Spring

  5. Causes • Demographic structural factors (demographic boom, desertification, lack of drinkingwater) • Current economiccrisis, inflation, living standards decrease (middle class), unemployment, extreme poverty • concentration of wealth in the hands of autocrats, tribalism • A young, educated (literacy rates,availability of higher education), and idol populace • Lack of perspective for youngsters • Democratic deficit: dictatorship & authoritarian regimes • Human rights violations • Government corruption, nepotism • Expression of liberty

  6. contestation • Interests of external actors • Non violence • No leadership • Use of facebook, internet • Domino effect. • Rebuild geopolitics : Security, economy, oil…

  7. Impact of the Arab Spring • Egypt got closer to Iran, but other sunni countries afraid from shiite „empire” • Islamist freedom – salafists, etc. – stronger position • Sharia law • Christian winter • Security challenges to westerner countries • Migration • Most of the earlier problem are still exist

  8. Questions ? • A new mediterrean Union ? • A democracy from “inside” ? • Risk of fundamentalism ? • The decline of the big power ? US, EU ? • The raise of new mediators ? Turkey ?

  9. What is coming?

  10. Biography • János Besenyő, Viktor Marsai: The first anniversary of the „Arab Spring” – What kind of change have taken place since then- Tradecraft Review, Periodical of the Military National Security Service, 2012, 2. Special Issue, pp. 5-16, http://real.mtak.hu/83773/7/2012_2_spec-5-16.pdf • János Besenyő, Roland Gömöri: Arab Spring, Christian Fall? – The situation of Christian minorities in the Middle East after the Arab Spring – International Institute for Counter-Terrorism, Herzliya, 2013. június, http://www.ict.org.il/Article/998/Arab_Spring_Christian_Fall

  11. QUESTION? THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

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