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Observations on Afghanistan

Observations on Afghanistan. “A Strategic Movement to Contact”. Problems in Afghanistan. No Unity of Effort, even among NATO nations, and no uniform COIN campaign

Gabriel
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Observations on Afghanistan

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  1. Observations on Afghanistan “A Strategic Movement to Contact”

  2. Problems in Afghanistan • No Unity of Effort, even among NATO nations, and no uniform COIN campaign • Airpower was key element of Iraqi success, but it cannot substitute for shortage of boots on the ground either for gathering intelligence or perceptions of security • Excessive civilian casualties in on-call airstrikes, SOF raids – and who controls the ground controls the message • Significant decline in public support and government legitimacy in key areas • The Taliban adapts better than Al Qaeda • Pakistan remains key to region

  3. Two key factors explain confidence in the US and NATO: presence and civilian casualties. US/NATO Force Presence Awareness of Civilian Casualties Charney Research

  4. Broader Institutional Worries • Has the pendulum swung too far, or not enough, or not at all? – Reform is uneven • The soul of SOF • Semantic obfuscation • People are not terrain • Academic backlash • Neglect of staffs and headquarters • Health of the all-Volunteer force and its utility in “Long War,” including tour length & rotation policies • Continuing lack of interagency capability

  5. QUESTIONS ???

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