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Afghanistan. The country where empires come to die. President Karsi. Fairly weak President Some refer to as mayor of Kabul Charges of corruption Our hope for central govt. Possibly supported by Opium Traffickers. Population Ethnic Makeup Total Population 32 million. Pashtuns: 42%
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Afghanistan The country where empires come to die.
President Karsi • Fairly weak President • Some refer to as mayor of Kabul • Charges of corruption • Our hope for central govt. • Possibly supported by Opium • Traffickers
Population Ethnic MakeupTotal Population 32 million • Pashtuns: 42% • Tajiks 27% • Hazara 9% (kite runner) • Uzbek 9% • Aimak 4% • Turkmen 3% • Balock 2% • Other 4%
Language • Dari (Like Farsi) 50% • Pashto (official) 35% • Turkic 11% • 30 other minority languages.
Religion: Islam • Sunni: 80% (Most of Arab world, dominate branch of Islam.) • Shiite: 20% (Iran, Parts of Iraq, Parts of Pakistan)
Quality of Life Indicators (U.S. in parenthesis for comparison) • Life Expectancy at birth: 44 (78) • Literacy: 28%; 12% for women (99% U.S) • GDP per capita: • Afghanistan $1000 per year or less • $2600 in Pakistan; • $12,000 in Iran. • GDP • Afghanistan 29 Billion, • U.S. 15 Trillion, • Pakistan 200 Billion • Iran 480 Billion; • Pop below poverty: 53% (12%) • Unemployment rate 40% (7%) • Population • Afghanistan 30 million, • Pakistan 180 million • Iran 80 Million; (Iraq 30 million)
Economy • Opium Production major economic engine (plus U.S. aid) 80-90% of European heroin comes from Afghanistan.
Recently huge deposits of Copper, Iron and Gold Discovered • Defense Department puts a Trillion dollar price tag on the deposits. • Control of the operations and, apparently kickbacks, went to Karsai’s brother. • Can Raw materials alone help?
Population’s concerns • Do you back U.S.? What if they leave and you have to answer to Taliban? • Remember the U.S. pulled out after the Soviets left. Leaving behind a bunch of armed and trained Mujahedeen or “holy warriors.”
Taliban • Sunni Wahabi leaning Muslims, who don’t consider Shiites’s Muslim. • Leader is Mullah Omar. • Fundamentalist, many of who studied in Madras in Pakistan. In these “schools” students often just memorize the Koran in Arabic. • Reigned from 1996 until Northern Alliance and U.S. forced from power after 911. Took over after Soviets expelled.
Taliban • Enforce fundamental Sharia, or Islamic Law. Which requires women to stay inside unless accompanied by male family member, men to wear beards, no music, dancing, booze. Enforcement takes place in public, including flogging, beheading and stoning to death for various infractions.
Big Questions • Can a stable government be installed in a fundamentally unstable country? • Can we ever leave and not have the Taliban, or more importantly, Al Qaeda returned to install bases.? • Is there an exit strategy?
Can we pull them out of poverty, if we can’t pull ourselves?
For Test: The Country • Ethnically fractured; Groups don’t get along; many controlled by elders that people do support. • Weak, corrupt central government, not supported by many. • Ahmed Karzai is President:
For Test: The Taliban • Ethnically Pashtun Mujahadeen (holy warriors) from mountains between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Originally trained by U.S. and Pakistan to fight Soviets. • Controlled country from Soviets leaving until our invasion. • Conservative Sunni Muslims who enforced a strict version of Shariah law, including beheadings, stonings, acid in the faces of girls and beatings. • Sympathetic to, but not Al Qaeda.
For Test: Taliban • Consist of different tribal groups who used to fight each other, but were united by their leader Mullah Omar and a common enemy, us.
For Test: Taliban • Have recently moved into Pakistan tribal areas to get away from U.S. • Last summer, invaded the SWAT valley of Pakistan and took over many nontribal areas, enforced Shariah there, driving away businesses. • Pakistan finally got serious and have attacked them and driven back in mountains.
For Test: Taliban • Could be threat to government in Pakistan if they band together with other conservative Islamic groups. • Not supported by majority of Afghan people because of their harsh implementation of Shariah. But they have the guns. • Funded by Al Qaeda and Heroin trade.
For Test: Taliban • Main complaint with the U.S. is that we are there. • U.S. seen as occupying army of infidels. • Have never and probably don’t have the capacity to attack U.S. • They did provide safe haven for Al Qaeda, but probably aren’t that loyal to them, except they are also enemies of U.S. • Questionable if they have the power to take over again if we leave, particularly if we supply air support to Aghans.
For Test: Al Qaeda • Sunni Wahabbist, conservative Islamic group primarily from Saudi Arabia • They have become a brand name now, and disaffected Muslims from all over think of themselves as Al Qaeda. • Leader is Osama Bin Ladin • Second in command Hyman Wazzira.
Currently • 90,000 U.S. troops. • Spent about 300 billion dollars • Have trained about ½ as many soldiers and police as needed. Mostly incompetent and illiterate • Have not funded as many reconstruction projects as most Afghans have expected. • Have not made a dent in corruption or poppy growth • Have killed many civilians attempting to “drone” Al Qaeda and Taliban. • Have lost 800 U.S. lives.
Suggested Strategies • Currently: Clear, Hold, Build. • No, lighter, faster, special ops and drones • General McChrystal, the U.S. commander has asked for 40,000 additional troops to maintain strategy. Probably at least 10 more years, billons of more dollars and thousands of death to accomplish. • Might stabilize country, protect Pakistan (they have Nukes)
Suggested Strategies • The George Will Strategy, endorsed by many Democrats: • Pull our troops out and focus on killing Taliban and Al Qaeda leaders using spies, offshore air strikes and drones.
The George Will Strategy • The Zakaria Strategy: seems to be the one Obama is leaning toward. • Keep the troop levels about the same. • Protect population, keep Taliban from taking over entire country. • Try to build infrastructure: schools, roads, etc. • Buy off tribal elders and drug planters. • Strike at Al Qaeda when we can. • Focus more on Pakistan.
For Test: Al Qaeda • They believe in a strict enforcement of Shariah law too, but there focus is more international than local. • There major issue with the U.S. is that we have occupied Saudi Arabia, the Holy Lands of Islam. • We have had troops there since the first Gulf War, probably to protect the oil fields from a possible Iranian invasion and to support our efforts in Iraq. • Since then, Al Qaeda has: • tried twice to blow up the World Trade Center, once succeeded. • Blown up our Embassy in Kenya. • Attempted to blow up the U.S.S. Cole, killing several Americans. • Set off bombs in the London Subway • Blown up a train in Spain • Attempted to blow up American airplanes.
For Test: Al Qaeda • Al Qaeda used to be headquartered in Sudan, but moved to Afghanistan after U.S. pressured Sudanese government to expel. • 1992: First attempt at World Trade Center • 1997 Clinton tried to hit with cruise missile, Bin Laden got away. • 2001 Succeed blowing up World Trade Center. • 2001 we invaded Afghanistan but were unable to catch him.
For Test: Al Qaeda • Funded by worldwide contributions since it has become a name brand. • Funded by Osama Bin Ladin, whose father is a wealthy Saudi industrialist. • Funded by “blood diamonds” when we went after Bin Ladin’s bank assets, they bought diamonds, which are portable and untraceable.
