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!”!. !!!””. WHERE WE ARE Strategic Science Plan, 1997: Attain Basic Understanding with High Quality Research Five Central Questions Strategic Science Plan, 2001: Refine Basic Understanding with High Quality Research

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  1. !”!

  2. !!!”” • WHERE WE ARE • Strategic Science Plan, 1997: • Attain Basic Understanding with High Quality Research • Five Central Questions • Strategic Science Plan, 2001: • Refine Basic Understanding with High Quality Research • Timely Delivery of Appropriate Information to Restoration and Resource Managers • Challenge/Opportunity - RECOVER & FB/FK Feasibility Study

  3. Applied Science Strategy - Major Components • Conceptual Ecological Models • Hydrological and Ecological Simulation Models • Performance Measures and Targets • Regional Monitoring Program • Adaptive Assessment Protocol

  4. Applied Science Strategy Societal Values Goals and Objectives Research and Modeling Conceptual Ecological Models Alternative Plan Evaluations Monitoring Plan & Assessments Performance Measures Comprehensive Plan

  5. Conceptual Ecological Model (2): For the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan the conceptual models are used to: 1. convert broad policy-level goals into specific, measurable indicators of the “health” of natural and human systems (performance measures). 2. develop a suite of “testable” assumptions that explain the cause and effect linkages among stressors and attributes, as a basis for identifying restoration and research priorities.

  6. A Definition of Performance Measures (1) Performance measures are the indicators of conditions in natural and human systems that have been selected as targets for restoration. Collectively, a well-selected set of performance measures provides a quantitative representation of the overall environmental health of these systems.

  7. A Definition of Performance Measures (2) Each performance measure identifies: • An element to be measured (e.g., alligator nesting) • The appropriate parameter (e.g., number of eggs that hatch per nest) • The restoration target (e.g., 75% average hatching rate)

  8. Performance Measures are used to: • Convert broad, policy level goals into measurable targets of restoration and enhancement • Evaluate performance of alternative restoration plans and select the plan that is predicted to best achieve the targets (modeling) • Assess performance during implementation and refine the design of the selected plan (monitoring)

  9. Categories of Performance Measures • Biological: Healthy living systems • Water quality: Clean water • Hydrological: - NSM restoration (Everglades, Big Cypress, Florida Bay) - Enhancement (Lake Okeechobee, St. Lucie, Caloosahatchee, Biscayne Bay) • Water supply and flood protection: Urban/Agr. water supply

  10. What is RECOVER? • RECOVER - Restoration Coordination and Verification. • Role - Organize and apply scientific and technical information to support the objectives of CERP. • A multi-disciplinary, inter-agency team of about 75 scientists and resource specialists.

  11. Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan RECOVERLeadership Group Comprehensive Plan Refinement Team Operations Planning Team Model Development and Refinement Team Adaptive Assessment Team Regional Evaluation Team

  12. Adaptive Assessment Team • Responsibilities • Conceptual Models and Biological Performance Measures • Regional Monitoring Program and Research Priorities • Annual Adaptive Assessment Report • Coordinate Scientific Peer Reviews • Priority Tasks • Revise Conceptual Ecological Models • Adaptive Assessment Strategy • System-wide Monitoring Plan

  13. Adaptive Assessment • A process for measuring how well CERP achieves its predicted targets and desired goals, and for using these assessments to provide science based recommendations for making improvements in the design and operation of the plan. • Provides a means for continually reducing the levels of uncertainty, and for adjusting to unexpected responses, by incorporating the new understandings of natural and human systems that come from monitoring, researching and modeling system responses.

  14. Adaptive Assessment Requirements • “Comprehensive monitoring of a set of spatially, temporally, and hierarchically appropriate performance targets, i.e., the elements of the natural and human systems which are the best measures of the restoration goals.” • “Scientific information derived from applied research and predictive modeling.” • AAT Adaptive Assessment Strategy March 27, 2000

  15. Comprehensive Plan System-Wide Monitoring OBJECTIVES - • Measure status and trends for performance measure targets. • Determine baseline variability for targets. • Identify unexpected non-target responses. • Improve understandings of cause and effect relationships among key ecological linkages.

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